CHINA, RUSSIA OUTLINE THINKING ON ZIMBABWE, SUDAN,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 USUN NEW YORK 000630 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/15/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV SO SU ZM SUBJECT: CHINA, RUSSIA OUTLINE THINKING ON ZIMBABWE, SUDAN, MIDDLE EAST Classified By: Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad for Reasons 1.4 b/d. ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Chinese PermRep Wang told P-5 counterparts this morning that Beijing had instructed him to veto last weekend's Security Council resolution on Zimbabwe after South African President Mbeki called Chinese President Hu to complain that the U.S. and UK were actively discouraging the Zimbabwe opposition from engaging in negotiations with the ruling ZANU-PF. Wang also reported that China has rebuffed Zimbabwe President Mugabe's request that his foreign minister visit Beijing. Ambassador Khalilzad told the Chinese and Russian on Zimbabwe that "you broke it, and we are watching to see how you are going to fix it." All agreed that the Security Council could do little in the immediate aftermath of the failed resolution and members would closely monitor developments in the ground over the next week or two. The group agreed that the Council should call for the Government of Sudan (GOS) to exercise restraint in the aftermath of International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor's application for an arrest warrant against President Bashir. British PermRep Sawers, however, insisted that any such call for restraint be linked to a call for GOS cooperation with the ICC, a condition China and Russia resisted as obviously boxing Bashir in and carrying a risk of prompting South Africa and others to come to his defense. China and Russia hinted that they may eventually advocate a suspension of the ICC case against Bashir pursuant to Treaty of Rome Article 16, but all agreed to monitor developments closely over the next several days before launching next steps. The group also agreed that the forthcoming UNAMID renewal resolution should largely track UNSCR 1769 as a technical rollover and avoid excessive benchmarking. On Somalia, there was broad consensus that Italian and Turkish leadership was not yielding results. On the Arab draft resolution condemning Israeli settlements, the Chinese and Russians said they could support the current Arab draft, but would prefer to work with the U.S. on a comprehensive resolution on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Ambassador Khalilzad hosted the P-5 at a July 15 working breakfast. Guests in principals-only format were Chinese PR Wang, Russian DPR Shcherbak, UK PR Sawers, and French Political Coordinator de Riviere. Topics covered were Zimbabwe, Sudan, Somalia, and the Arab draft resolution on Israeli settlements. Zimbabwe -------------- ¶3. (C) Ambassador Wang revealed that President Mbeki of South Africa called President Hu before the July 12 Security Council vote on the Zimbabwe resolution to explain that South Africa would be taking its alternative resolution (calling for sanctions should Zimbabwe's behavior not improve) off the table in reaction to his conclusion that the UK and U.S. had been actively discouraging the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) from negotiating with Mugabe's ZANU-PF. In support of South Africa, Beijing then instructed Wang to veto the U.S.-sponsored sanctions resolution. ¶4. (C) Wang and Russia's Shcherbak told the group that both their capitals have approached Mugabe to impress on him the need to negotiate with the opposition in good faith. Wang said China had gone so far as to rebuff Mugabe's direct request that Zimbabwe's foreign minister, Simbarashe Mumbengegwi, be received officially in Beijing. ¶5. (C) Ambassador Khalilzad told the Russian and Chinese that their veto of the resolution effectively meant they had together broken and therefore bought the Zimbabwe situation and that the U.S. and others would now be looking at how they would fix it. All agreed that the Council could do little as an institution in the short term except closely monitor events on the ground. Darfur -------------- ¶6. (C) Russia and China both urged the rest of the P-5 to confine the resolution renewing UNAMID to technical matters largely tracking resolution 1769, which created the hybrid force for Darfur. They argued that the resolution should avoid excessive benchmarking but agreed to retain language in the UK-draft endorsing, for example, the UN's goal of 80 percent UNAMID deployment in calendar year 2008. The group agreed that the resolution should call on the Government of Sudan (GOS) to exercise restraint in the aftermath of the recent International Criminal Court (ICC) filings against USUN NEW Y 00000630 002 OF 002 Sudan President Bashir. The Chinese and Russian resisted UK PermRep Sawer's insistence that such a call for restraint be linked to a call for GOS cooperation with the ICC, arguing that Bashir would be boxed in by a call for cooperation with his own indictment and that South Africa and others might then feel compelled to come to his defense and thereby exacerbate tensions. (NOTE. The UK draft resolution renewing UNAMID does not expressly mention the ICC but repeats language from UNSCR 1769 calling for "perpetrators of crimes in Darfur" to be brought to justice. END NOTE.) ¶7. (C) Russia and China also hinted that they may yet come to advocate a formal Security Council suspension of the ICC process against Bashir pursuant to Treaty of Rome Article 16. The group reached consensus, however, to monitor developments closely for several days before deciding on next steps colectively or individually. Somalia -------------- ¶8. (C) There was broad P-5 consensus that new leadership may be needed to make progress in Somalia, perhaps with Indonesian or Arab state activity replacing Italian and Turkish. Middle East -------------- ¶9. (C) Separately, the Chinese and Russians said they could support the current Arab draft resolution condemning Israeli settlements, but would prefer to work with the U.S. on a comprehensive resolution on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. They generally welcomed the U.S. elements for a comprehensive resolution circulated to the Security Council and said they would have only a few changes to propose. Khalilzad