HANDICAPPING UN HUMAN RIGHTS COUNCIL ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L USUN NEW YORK 000431

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2013
TAGS: FR SP UK PHUM UNGA AORC
SUBJECT: HANDICAPPING UN HUMAN RIGHTS COUNCIL ELECTIONS

REF: SECSTATE 49110

Classified By: Ambassador Khalilzad for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (U) Action requested: please see paragraph 5.


2. (C) In our view, Japan, South Korea and Pakistan are
likely to prevail in the May 21 General Assembly elections to
the Human Rights Council. All have the benefit of
incumbency. Pakistan's UN Mission tells us the OIC (56 or 57
votes) has endorsed both their candidacy and Bahrain's. This
endorsement, combined with Pakistan's recent accession to
some human rights instruments, has Pakistan feeling
confident. Moreover, international NGOs like Human Rights
Watch and the Democracy Coalition Project, which earlier
opposed Pakistan, have backed off, apparently at the request
of their Pakistani affiliates. South Korea may benefit from
Ban-Ki-moon's position as Secretary-General. All our
assessments are necessarily speculative, as countries are
reluctant to reveal their voting preferences.


3. (C) As for Bahrain, Sri Lanka, and Timor-Leste, it is
difficult to assess their chances. Bahrain's OIC support is
mentioned above. Timor has campaigned hard (their Ambassador
says he has met with over 180 permreps) and has strong
support in the WEOG, but may lose votes in other groups due
to opposition from Indonesia, and the perception that Timor
lacks the capacity, particularly in Geneva, to participate
fully in the HRC. If we want to help Timor, we may have to
address the capacity issue. We could perhaps also speak
quietly to Indonesia. NGOs are campaigning hard against Sri
Lanka, which is also campaigning hard, however, emphasizing
its "active role in the institution-building process of the
Council" as Chair of the Asian Group for two years and
calling itself one of the oldest democracies in the region
(to counter Timor-Leste).


4. (C) In the WEOG, the race is too close to call. France
and Spain have been campaigning longer than the UK and may be
trading favors, as reftel reports and the UK suspects; but
the UK may have the advantage of incumbency. The UK Mission
would welcome U.S. lobbying on its behalf and says its
Embassy in Washington has given the Department a list of
about a dozen Member States to be approached.


5. (C) Action request: In the Eastern European Group, where
Serbia, Slovakia and Ukraine are running for the seats being
vacated by Ukraine and Romania, we would be grateful for the
Department's guidance on which two countries to support.
Khalilzad