TRANSNISTRIA CONFLICT: THREE PLUS TWO INCHES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 USOSCE 000071 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/18/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV OSCE MD SUBJECT: TRANSNISTRIA CONFLICT: THREE PLUS TWO INCHES FORWARD Classified By: Ambassador Michael D. Kirby for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The Finnish chairmanship succeeded March 13 in winning approval from the 3 2 group for the OSCE mediator to approach Moldovan and Transnistrian authorities to encourage them to establish issue-related working groups at the technical level. The Finnish special envoy for unresolved conflicts will issue invitations to both sides to join the representatives of the mediator countries in Odessa April 14-15 for informal discussions on ecological and water-management issues. The session will be billed for technical experts but will provide opportunity for wider discussion, including an informal 5 2 meeting on the margins of the event. The mediators hope that this low-key, modest-scale initial step will open the way for formation of working groups on a variety of topics, as proposed by Moldovan President Voronin last October but as yet unrealized. End summary. ¶2. (C) Meeting at the OSCE in Vienna March 13 under the auspices of Finnish special envoy for unresolved conflicts Heikki Talvitie, the 3 2 mediators (OSCE chairmanship-in-office Finland, Russia, Ukraine, plus U.S. and EU) reviewed the lack of any progress since an informal 5 2 session last October in Odessa. Ambassador Michael D. Kirby came from Chisinau to represent the U.S. Russia sent its Moldova point man, Ambassador at Large Valeriy Nesteruschkin. The EU's Special Representative for Moldova, Kalman Mizsei, Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister and special representative for Transnistria Andrei Veselovskiy, and OSCE Moldova head of mission Philip Remler took part in the meeting. The previous Odessa event had produced good atmospherics among the participants but follow-up was marred by introduction shortly thereafter of controversial license-plate registration proposals by the government in Chisinau and by ever-present corrosive Transnistrian distrust of the Voronin administration. The 3 2 participants heeded Talvitie's caution against any overly-ambitious initial step to get contact activity between the two sides back on track, and discussion focused on a search for an appropriately modest initiative. ¶3. (C) Talvitie steered the discussion along lines suggested to him by U.S. representative Ambassador Kirby, in a private talk before the meeting began. Kirby had outlined a four-step strategy: 3 2 meeting; followed by one or more informal 5 2 meetings to establish dialogue between the two sides; leading to formation of joint Moldovan-Transnistrian working groups to build mutual confidence; and a formal 5 2 encounter when there are sufficient grounds for a positive outcome. ¶4. (C) After some wheel-spinning about the relative usefulness of 3 2 and 5 2 initiatives for confidence building vs. prospects for major breakthroughs via a package deal from Voronin's talks with Moscow or CFE negotiations, the group decided that confidence building on the ground was worthwhile in any event. Kirby emphasized that even in the unlikely event of a high-level deal, there would still be a host of practical details and implementation questions for which mutual confidence would be needed. Russia's Nesteruschkin cautioned how difficult it was even for the Russians to do business with Transnistrian leader Smirnov and the nervousness with which Transnistrian figures would greet any settlement or any serious re-integration effort, thereby underscoring Kirby's point about the need for getting sustained confidence-building activities in as many areas as possible underway on the ground. Road and rail transport, environmental concerns, water-management, especially on the Dniester, and humanitarian and health issues were all identified as promising topics. ¶5. (SBU) The participants agreed that the best option for now was another Odessa workshop, tentatively to be held April 14-15 under the auspices of the OSCE Moldova field mission. The subject would be ecology and water-management. Technical experts and corresponding ministry officials from both sides would be invited, with representatives of all the 3 2 countries in attendance and the opportunity for an informal 5 2 at the margins of the event. 3 2 countries would be prepared to send technical experts of their own if so desired by the Moldovan and Transnistrian participants. The aim would be for Odessa to be a springboard for formation of joint Moldovan-Transnistrian working groups in these areas, and for the areas to be expanded once working contacts proved fruitful to both sides. ¶6. (SBU) Kirby pointed out how Moldova's participation in the U.S. Millennium Challenge Corporation program and receipt of EU aid could be used to nudge the two sides together. U.S. support for road-building plus EU and Russian interest USOSCE 00000071 002 OF 002 in reviving effective rail transport can create conditions that oblige experts, planners and ultimately decision makers from the two sides to talk to one another and reach agreement on practical matters. The incentive of improved transportation and subsequent increased prosperity would be the carrot to get the horses to move forward together. ¶7. (SBU) Next steps: Talvitie will phone Moldovan Reintegration Minister Sova and Transnistrian "foreign minister" Litskai to discuss the 3 2 talks and the desire to hold another Odessa event. OSCE head of mission Remler will follow up with calls on Sova and Litskai to win their support and to get them to encourage Voronin's and Smirnov's approval after which his mission will issue invitations to prospective participants. ¶8. (C) Comment: The 3 2 talks were positive in tone and free of the histrionics that sometimes characterize Nesteruschkin's performance. Consensus was good on the modest step forward of a repeat of Odessa, in recognition of the deep well of mutual suspicion between the Chisinau and Tiraspol authorities. Three plus two participants share guarded optimism that both sides will give a green light for the Odessa proposal, which allows for both an informal 5 2 and opens the door to substantive contact between the two sides. A string of small successes is needed to set the stage if there is to be a formal 5 2 with a positive outcome. End comment. Ambassador Michael D. Kirby has cleared this cable. SCOTT