CFE/JCG: GEORGIA/RUSSIA SPAR OVER ISTANBUL, ALLIES

C O N F I D E N T I A L USOSCE 000263 SIPDIS STATE FOR VCI/CCA, EUR/RPM NSC FOR HAYES JCS FOR J5/COL NORWOOD OSD FOR ISA (PERENYI) E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2018 TAGS: KCFE OSCE PARM PREL RS SUBJECT: CFE/JCG: GEORGIA/RUSSIA SPAR OVER ISTANBUL, ALLIES PILE-ON RUSSIA OVER NON-COMPLIANCE Classified By: Chief Arms Control Delegate Hugh Neighbour, for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (SBU) Summary: At the October 28 JCG, Georgia delivered a long statement detailing para by para Russia's failure to fulfill many of its Istanbul commitments. Russia denied the accusations, accused Georgia of the same, and declared Gudauta was no longer an issue since it now belongs to Abkhazia. The U.S. called out Russia on its failure to provide data on its forces at Kushchevskaya as of October 1, ¶2008. Germany and Norway protested the recent Russian refusals of their request for CFE inspections. Allies piled-on Russia for its non-compliance. Turkey, Norway, France, the UK, Italy, Netherlands, Luxembourg, Romania, Moldova, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Ukraine, and Georgia voiced their support for the U.S. and/or Germany/Norway's interventions. All expressed their concern that Russian non-compliance was damaging the Treaty and called on Russia to return to full implementation. Additionally, Russia rebuffed the Chair's suggestion to cancel the November 4 and 11 JCG meetings. Russia asserted that the JCG should continue "substantive dialogue" on CFE issues. The JCG decided that there would be no JCG Chairman Letter to the Ministerial Council this year. End Summary. Russia...Afraid of Commitments? - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (SBU) The Joint Consultative Group (JCG) met on October 28 under the Chairmanship of Portugal (Barata). As promised during the last JCG meeting, Georgia (Giorgadze) delivered a long statement detailing para by para Russia's failure to fulfill many of its Istanbul commitments. Giorgadze admitted that Russia had reduced, in a timely manner, the amount of Treaty Limited Equipment (TLE) within the territory of Georgia per the Joint Statement of the Russian Federation and Georgia of November 17, 1999. He also conceded that Russia had fulfilled the obligation to withdraw or dismantle the TLE located at Vaziani and at the repair facilities in Tbilisi, and had closed the Vaziani base. ¶3. (SBU) However, Giorgadze said that Russia had not completely withdrawn from Gudauta and that it had not legally transferred the military base to the Georgian authorities. The Georgian rep lamented that his country had done its part to facilitate Russian withdrawal from Gudauta, but Russia stopped the complete withdrawal because it wanted to use the military installation for a CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) peacekeeping mission. Giorgadze alleged that Russia had maintained combat forces on the base and had used Gudauta in support of their recent invasion of Georgia. Finally, Giorgadze charged Russia with violating the preamble and articles of the CFE Treaty as well as universal norms and international agreements by invading and occupying Georgian territory. Additional details of Georgia's statement can be found in the journal of the JCG Plenary. ¶4. (SBU) Russia (Ulyanov) countered that Georgia had not lived up to the agreement by not setting up an anti-terrorist center in Batumi. This failure led Russia to distrust Georgian motives. Ulyanov warned that he would respond to the Georgian statement in detail at a future meeting. He reiterated his well-known mantra that Russia did not violate provisions of the CFE Treaty but had exercised its rights under UN Article 51 to defend civilians and Russian peace keeping forces in South Ossetia. Ulyanov commented that Gudauta was no longer an issue since it now belongs to the Republic of Abkhazia. ¶5. (SBU) The U.S. (Neighbour) voiced support for the Georgian statement. Neighbour commented that Russia's continued "suspension" of its implementation of the CFE Treaty and its actions in Georgia are inconsistent with core principles upon which the Treaty is built. He said States Parties needed to resolve outstanding issues that would allow for the Adapted CFE Treaty to enter into force and that respect for the principle of host nation consent is a critical element of any resolution. Both the UK and France offered their support to Georgia and agreed with Neighbour's intervention. Kushchevskaya Data...Beating Up the Bear - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (SBU) The U.S. (Neighbour) called out Russia on its failure to provide information on its forces at the Kushchevskaya base in the Treaty's flank area, as of October 1, 2008. Neighbour said exchange of data was important for Treaty verification and Russia's failure to provide the information as required by the Final Document of the First Review Conference was an act of non-compliance with the CFE Treaty. Russian non-compliance was not helpful in preserving the long-term viability of the CFE regime or bringing about a resolution to the current impasse. Neighbour urged the Russian Federation to resume Treaty implementation and work with other CFE States to create the conditions that will enable all States Parties to ratify the Adapted CFE Treaty. ¶7. (SBU) Turkey, Norway, the UK, Romania, Moldova, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Ukraine, Germany, and Georgia expressed their support to the U.S. statement. They noted the importance of data exchange, in particular the data on Kushchevskaya military base. The delegations were concerned that Russian non-compliance was damaging the Treaty and called on Russia to return to full implementation. ¶8. (SBU) Russia (Ulyanov) was surprised that States Parties had "illusions" of the return of the flank regime. Ulyanov said flank limitation was discriminatory towards Russia and that it was not coming back. He then accused the U.S. of not doing enough to resolve the current impasse. Ulyanov claimed that since the Madrid Ministerial, there had only been three short bilateral meetings to discuss the CFE issue. Ulyanov said States Parties must stop "dragging their feet" in ratifying the Adapted Treaty and he called on all JCG colleagues to take a more "substantive stand." Inspection Refusals...When It Rains...It Pours - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶9. (SBU) Germany and Norway announced that Russia had recently refused their requests for CFE inspections. Both had hoped Russia would use the inspection opportunities to send a positive signal on Treaty implementation. Both regretted Russia's actions and called on the Russian Federation to return to full implementation of the CFE Treaty. In its statement, Germany (Schweizer) announced that it plans to continue exercising its Treaty inspection rights even in the face of Russian refusal. Referring to the NAC statement on March 28 and April 3, Schweizer reminded Russia that NATO supports the parallel actions package and that it was the way to resolve the current impasse. ¶10. (SBU) In quick succession, Allies fired off rapid interventions in support the German and Norwegian statements. Luxembourg, Turkey, Netherlands, Romania, France, Czech Republic, Italy, and the U.S. all voiced their support. Suspend Implementation...But Don't Break My Rice Bowl - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶11. (SBU) Under any other business, the JCG Chair returned to last week's suggestion to cancel the November 4 and 11 JCG Plenary due to scheduling conflict with two arms control seminars. Citing today's "substantive" discussion, Russia refused to agree to the cancellation of the two meetings. Ulyanov suggested that the JCG be moved to a Monday and that delegations should schedule their travel to allow for JCG attendance. Germany, the UK and the U.S. agreed that dialogue was beneficial, but the cancellations would not impact the discussion. Russia refused to budge and as a result the JCG will meet on November 4 and 11. On the margin, the UK delegation informed USDEL that it plans to send its most junior officer to the meeting with instructions to block any substantive action. No Letter Again... - - - - - - - - - - ¶12. (SBU) As coordinated in the JCG-T plus 4, the Chair (Portugal, Barata) announced to the Plenary that informal consultations with several States Parties had lead to the conclusion that there would be no agreed text on a JCG Chairman's letter to the Ministerial Council (MC). As a result, Barata suggested that to avoid wasting time and effort the JCG would not submit a letter to the MC. There was consensus in the Plenary for the Chair's suggestion. JCG-T Plus 4...Let's Not Waste Our Time - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶13. (C) At the JCG-T plus 4 on 27 October, Allies focused their discussion on the JCG letter to the Ministerial Council. Portugal informed Allies that during recent consultations, Georgia revealed that it would not agree to any JCG letter without explicit language pertaining to Russia's violation of the CFE Treaty during the recent Russian/Georgian conflict. In the preliminary discussion on the two versions formulated by Allies and a paragraph proposed by Russia, USDEL highlighted the importance of referring to the Istanbul commitments in the letter. With no potential textual consensus in the JCG because of Georgian position, the UK, U.S., Germany, Romania, Luxembourg, and Turkey voiced support for "killing" the letter. Allies agreed that there would be no JCG letter to the Ministerial Council. Next Meeting - - - - - - - ¶14. (U) The next JCG Plenary will be on November 4 under the Chairmanship of Portugal. FINLEY