CFE/JCG: 23 SEPTEMBER MEETING IS AN ALL-ALLIED

C O N F I D E N T I A L USOSCE 000225 SIPDIS STATE FOR VCI/CCA, EUR/RPM, NSC FOR HAYES, JCS FOR J5/NORWOOD/CAMPBELL, OSD FOR ISA/PERENYI E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/17/2009 TAGS: KCFE OSCE PARM PREL SUBJECT: CFE/JCG: 23 SEPTEMBER MEETING IS AN ALL-ALLIED PERFORMANCE REF: USNATO 336 Classified By: Chief Arms Control Delegate Hugh Neighbour, for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary. Interventions by Bulgaria, Spain and Italy calling out Russia for refusing inspections were the highlight the brief JCG held on September 23. Germany, Turkey, the UK, Romania, Portugal, U.S., Czech Republic and France intervened in support. Russia did not comment. The JCG took the decision to cancel its next meeting scheduled for 30 September in view of Germany's Arms Control Seminar in Berlin. However, there was no support in the JCG-T on further reducing the number of JCG meetings. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) As coordinated in the JCG-T, Bulgaria, Spain and Italy called Russia out with strong national statements for refusing their inspections. Spain noted that, while they had not had high expectations, they had hoped Russia would accept an inspection to demonstrate their commitment to overcoming the current impasse. All reaffirmed their commitment to CFE and called on Russia to return to full compliance. ¶3. (SBU) Germany, Turkey, the United Kingdom, Romania, Portugal, the U.S., the Czech Republic and France (the Quad plus Bulgaria, Spain and Italy's geographic neighbors) made interventions in support of the three national statements. Russia (Solomenko) did not reply to Allied interventions. (Note. Ulyanov had told the U.S. (Neighbour) that he would not be present at the meeting. End note.) ¶4. (SBU) Germany (Richter) restated its proposal from the last meeting to cancel the JCG scheduled for September 30th. Richter reminded States Parties that Germany's next Berlin Seminar is scheduled for the same day and that several delegations would be sending representatives. No one opposed the proposal, so the next JCG will be held on October 7. ¶5. (SBU) In the JCG-T plus 4 the day before, Allies expressed little support for the U.S. view that fewer JCGs should be held. Uncharacteristically, opposition did not coalesce around Germany. Rather, Spain, Italy, Greece, Turkey and Luxembourg pushed back with Germany later adding to the dissenting opinion. Arguments against a reduction of meetings varied from angst at sending a political signal, to doubt that the JCG would reach full consensus, to appeals for keeping all lines of communication open. Not even Britain, Canada or the Czech Republic argued in favor of reducing JCGs. ¶6. (C) Comment. Allied apprehension to reducing the number of JCG meetings before October 15 is not inconsistent with the more vocal national positions in opposition, but is much more dogged and pervasive among those Allies who seemed supportive at the 11 September HLTF (Reftel.) Even the Romania delegation privately told us we would not succeed and should ease up noting the September 23 JCG lasted less than twenty minutes. Absent multiple interventions on refused inspections, future meetings are likely to be even shorter and less substantive. Although pushing Allies harder for a reduced schedule in the JCG-T will likely not gain traction, working to reduce the number of meetings on a case by case basis using "technical" justification as a criteria (e.g., when the JCG conflicts with other events such as the HLTF meeting in Romania) may still resonate in Vienna. FINLEY