CFE/JCG: JUNE 17, 2008 PLENARY - RUSSIA AWAITS

C O N F I D E N T I A L USOSCE 000163 SIPDIS STATE FOR VCI/CCA, EUR/RPM NSC FOR DOWLEY JCS FOR J5 NORWOOD OSD FOR ISA (PERENYI) E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/17/2012 TAGS: KCFE OSCE PARM PREL SUBJECT: CFE/JCG: JUNE 17, 2008 PLENARY - RUSSIA AWAITS "ACTIVE" NEGOTIATIONS, ALLIES CALL FOR OFFICIAL RUSSIAN RESPONSE Classified By: Chief Arms Control Delegate Hugh Neighbour, for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (SBU) Summary. During the June 17 JCG Plenary under Kazakh Chairmanship, Turkey (Begec),supported by the U.S., Germany, the UK and Netherlands, raised the issue of Russia's latest inspection refusal. Russia (Solomenko) underscored there was no need to offer any explanations as they are well known and justified, but alleged lack of bilateral and multilateral discussions aimed at resolving the impasse. Allies retorted that it is Russia who has failed to respond to date to the serious proposals Allies laid out in the March 28 NAC Statement and - at the most senior levels - supported in the Bucharest Communique. Following the JCG, the Treaty Operation and Implementation (TOI) Group met to nominate a new chair for JCG final approval. At the June 16 JCG-T, Germany (Richter) informed Allies of his intent to provide a presentation on the nature of the NAC Statement proposal and related CFE terminology to the JCG sometime in July, but only after first previewing with Allies well in advance. ¶2. (C) In bilateral discussions with Allies, Russian Chief Arms Control Delegate Mikhail Ulyanov continues to push for JCG discussions of elements of the parallel actions package alleging lack of progress in the U.S.-Russia bilateral channel and quietly telling Allies that they do not have the "complete" version of the package. Intent on initiating "technical" discussions in Vienna, Ulyanov is promoting a Russian foreign minister-level approach to the U.S. to jump start the process. End Summary. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - JCG PLENARY - WHO IS WAITING ON WHOM? - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (SBU) At the June 17 JCG Plenary chaired by Kazakhstan, Turkey (Begec) directed the JCG's attention to Russia's refusal of a Turkish CFE inspection notification for 16-20 June and recalled Turkey's Note Verbale which indicated Russia's "suspension" was not legitimate. In support of Turkey, the U.S. (Neighbour) emphasized its deep regret over Russia's continuing "suspension," which has no basis in the Treaty or customary international law and does not indicate interest on the part of Russia to work with its Treaty partners to resolve the current impasse. Recalling the March 28 NAC Statement on CFE and paragraph 42 of the Bucharest Summit Communique, Neighbour urged Russia to resume Treaty implementation and to work with concerned States Parties on the basis of the parallel actions package. ¶4. (SBU) Russian CFE Expert (Solomenko),substituting for Chief Arms Control Delegate Ulyanov for the third week in a row, reminded all of Russia's December 12 suspension noting that it was fully justified and there was no reason to repeat Russia's argumentation. Solomenko then took the opportunity to take a direct jab at the U.S. regarding the "active" pace of the bilateral process while noting that Russia stands ready to discuss issues bilaterally and at the JCG. He remarked that the insistence of the Alliance in holding general positions and refusing to engage in dialogue in the JCG results in holding back progress. Solomenko appealed to his Western colleagues to step up negotiations. ¶5. (SBU) Germany (Richter),the UK (Gare) and the Netherlands (Kleinjan) each took the floor to echo the concerns raised by Turkey and the U.S. and to redirect blame at the Russian Federation for not having yet responded to Allied proposals. Richter underscored that NATO had made a proposal to overcome current constraints and achieve ratification of the adapted CFE Treaty through the March 28 NAC Statement. This proposal, supported by the Heads of State/Government of 26 States in paragraph 42 of the Bucharest Communique, calls for a commensurate official reply on the part of Russia. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - JCG TOI GETS A NEW CHAIR - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (SBU) The Treaty Operation and Implementation (TOI) Group Chairman (Fardellotti, Italy) convened the TOI primarily to approve his nomination for the next TOI Chair (Linteau, Canada) in the interest of maintaining continuity of the working groups. Germany, the U.S., Italy Portugal, the UK, Greece, France, Spain and finally Russia voiced support for the nomination which is now distributed as JCG.DD/2/08. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - JCG-T PLUS 4 - GERMANY PLANNING ANOTHER JCG PRESENTATION - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶7. (SBU) At the 14 January JCG-T plus 4, the chair (Richter, Germany) reiterated concerns with the possibility of facing a year-long stalemate as each side waited for the other to respond and noted a change in Russia's position in the short term was unlikely due to the recent presidential election. Still pushing for some measure of substantive dialogue in the JCG, Richter noted that Germany was working on a presentation on the nature of the NAC Statement proposal that would draw conclusions from the CFE Treaty text with the intent of clarifying terminology. Richter suggested the need to highlight that use of the term "stationing" involved Treaty Limited Equipment (TLE) and not infrastructure, as well as to explain the differences between substantial combat forces, temporary deployments, exceptional deployments and permanent stationing. He indicated he did not intend to present this briefing to the JCG until after the July 1-2 ASRC and promised to preview it at next week's JCG-T with ample time for Allies to comment. The U.S. and UK each noted appreciation for the opportunity to preview, emphasizing the need for sufficient time. ¶8. (SBU) Germany also alerted the group that Ulyanov would not be at the JCG the following day, offering a repeat of the "preoccupation with Georgia" excuse and adding that Alexander Ivanov of the Russian del had fallen ill and would be returning to Moscow on June 17. (Comment. On the margins of the JCG, a Russian del rep confirmed to U.S. del that Ivanov was returning to Moscow due to a liver-related illness, but this was unrelated to Ulyanov's absence which was a direct result of his perceived lack of progress and substantive discussion in the JCG. End comment) ¶9. (SBU) During a lunch hosted by new TOI Chair Linteau, in response to a question, Solomenko stated that the new Treaty proposed by Russian President Medvedev is not intended to replace CFE. -------------- --- Russian Efforts to Drive Wedges and Split Package -------------- --- ¶10. (C) Several Allies (including UK, TR, RO) have told USDel that Russian Chief Arms Control Delegate Mikhail Ulyanov has quietly been saying to them that the U.S. isn't interested in talking, alleging the U.S. cannot negotiate seriously due to the U.S. election cycle. The RF then asks our Allies if they have the "latest, complete" copy of the parallel actions package -- most Allies only have the version distributed in Madrid, which updated the original version distributed in Bad Saarow. A charge the Russians cite to show the U.S. is not serious is the number of bilateral meetings since Madrid and the U.S. proposal for a short, informal Fried-Antonov meeting in Stockholm. (Comment: A number of Allies (led by Germany) seem privately sympathetic to this Russian argument. End comment.) ¶11. (C) Ulyanov wants to disaggregate the parallel actions package and sow disunity among the Allies over "technical" discussions in Vienna on elements of the package (e.g., "substantial combat forces"). He told the USDel (Neighbour) on June 18 that he was more determined than ever to bring parts of the package to Vienna. Neighbour replied that NATO's position was clear, including keeping the parallel actions package intact, and explained why Vienna was a very inappropriate venue. Russia should reply to the generous offer by NATO states detailed in the 28 March NAC Statement and the Bucharest summit declaration. Ulyanov said he would seek to get Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov to approach the Secretary to agree to bilateral U.S.-Russia "technical" talks in Vienna as a means to break the impasse and "not waste more time." (Comment: Ulyanov did not appear fully confident he could get a minister-level approach to the U.S. on this and hinted at professional rivalry between him and MFA Director for Disarmament and Arms Control Anatoliy Antonov.) ¶12. (U) The next JCG Plenary, to be chaired by Luxembourg, will take place on Friday, June 27 due to the June 24 HLTF meeting in Brussels. The JCG will be preceded by a JCG-T on the same day. Greece has already informed Allies that it will raise Russia's recent refusal of a CFE inspection by Greece. LAEUCHLI