A/S BOUCHER NATO VISIT, 17 SEP 08

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 USNATO 000354

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/23/2018
TAGS: MARR NATO PGOV PREL SNAR UN AF
SUBJECT: A/S BOUCHER NATO VISIT, 17 SEP 08

REF: USNATO 00339

Classified By: A/DCM
Walter S. Reid for Reasons 1.4(B) AND (D).


1. (U) SUMMARY: During September 14 meetings at NATO,
Assistant Secretary for South and Central Asian Affairs
Richard Boucher told NATO Perm Reps that NATO and the Afghans
need to be more effective in holding territory, particularly
with strengthened Afghan police, provincial and local
governments, and Provincial Reconstruction Teams. He also
urged Allies to fund the costs of sustaining the increased
size of the Afghan National Army. The Deputy Chairman of the
Military Committee told Boucher that highway security was an
increasingly high priority for NATO and the right balance of
local and national police forces needed to be found. The
Secretary General's Special Representative for the Caucasus
and Central Asia Bob Simmons said that while Pakistan is
seeking a broader relationship with NATO, the Alliance was
sticking to military-to-military contacts and top-level
political dialogue for now. Boucher told NATO Secretary
General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer that NATO should help reinforce
the growing sense in Pakistan that the fight against
terrorism was one they needed to fight for their own reasons
and that NATO could help the Pakistani army recognize the
need to transform into a force capable of fighting in the
tribal areas. NATO could also serve as an important conduit
for Pakistan to have relations with the West. The Sectretary
General made a strong plea for NATO to be included in the
planned &Friends of Pakistan8 group. END SUMMARY.
NATO PERM REPS CURIOUS ABOUT PAKISTAN


2. (U) During a September 14 visit to NATO, Assistant
Secretary Boucher told NATO PermReps at an informal coffee
meeting that there had been significant progress in
Afghanistan in areas such as expanding the reach of the
Afghan government into new areas, improved coordination with
the Afghans, and improved electricity generation. At the
same time, the enemy's use of asymmetric attacks, such as the
bombing of hotels and lightning attacks such as the Kandahar
prison break, is creating a sense of public insecurity. He
noted that in the counterinsurgency strategy of &clear,
hold, build8, we were successful in clearing and fairly
successful in building, but the &hold8 portion of the
strategy is where there are problems, and where we need to
work jointly with the Afghans to improve. He outlined three
priority areas for improvement:
- Police: Though there were many false starts, the
Focused District Development program is progressing well.
There needs to be a focus on the size and mix of national
versus local police and further reforms are needed to
increase the independence of the police.
- Provincial Government: The main issues are the need to
get rid of the corrupting influence of poppy cultivation and
drug-related crime, distribute money from the central
government to local levels, and enlist the support of the
tribes.
- Provisional Reconstruction Teams: Rather than be the
presence of the country they represent, they need to increase
their support to local governance and provide an effective
interface to the governors. These teams need to build
government's capacities at a local level.


3. (C/NF) Assistant Secretary Boucher discussed the recent
approval to enlarge the Afghan National Army (ANA) to 134,000
soldiers (122,000 active soldiers and a 12,000-man training
float). He noted this would be a large increase requiring a
lot of money. He stressed the need to set up a funding
stream via a Trust Fund or other means to sustain the
enlarged Army. He said the U.S. would foot the bill for
training and equipping the additional troops, at
approximately $4-5 billion, but that the sustainment funds
needed to come from worldwide sources.


4. (C/NF) Boucher noted the need to build capacity on both
sides of the Afghan-Pakistan border. He also noted that the
new Pakistan government was working more actively to stem the
flow of fighters and support from the tribal areas in
Pakistan. In a sign that the Pakistanis increasingly
recognize the need for cross-border cooperation, they had
recently requested assistance from the 101st to stop
insurgents from returning from Afghanistan into Pakistan to
engage Pakistani security forces conducting a sweep in the
tribal areas.

AFGHAN "AWAKENING COUNCILS" NOT LIKELY

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5. (C/NF) In a meeting with Boucher, Deputy Chairman of the
Military Committee Lt Gen Karl Eikenberry (USA) said that his
oft-repeated quote that "where the highway ends, the
insurgency begins" was not really valid any longer due to the
recent attacks on the road system in Afghanistan. With
highway security a high priority for NATO, Eikenberry stated
he has thought a lot about the delineation of police and
military tasks and how to build a balanced local and national
police force. He stated that community policing was
difficult due to a lack of accountability, which army troops
provided in the Iraq model. He also commented that the
Allies have shown more commitment than many &nay-sayers8
expected. He reported that at their September 12-14 meeting,
NATO Chiefs of Defense had discussed NATO taking on a greater
role in police training. Finally, Eikenberry relayed that
France, Germany, Italy and Spain were currently the
"blockers" of General Craddock's request for new ISAF
counter-narcotic authorities. Most of their concerns
centered on President Karzai's erratic performance over the
last few months, and a concern about civilian casualties
related to any ISAF counter-narcotic operations.


6. (C/NF) Boucher cautioned against trying to reinvent the
"Anbar Awakening" model in Afghanistan. He stated that a
more decentralized approach was needed due to the more
complex ethnic and tribal mix in Afghanistan, and added that
it would be several years before the police would be able to
provide comprehensive security throughout Afghanistan. He
also felt it was important to get a NATO dialogue going with
Pakistan, for which the Secretary General's visit to
Islamabad in late October could be a good catalyst.

PAKISTAN WANTS MORE RELATIONS WITH NATO


7. (C/NF) In a meeting with the Secretary General's Special
Representative for the Caucasus and Central Asia Bob Simmons,
Assistant Secretary Boucher was assured that the Russians
were holding firm on their offer to allow ISAF logistical
transit through Russia despite the deterioration of NATO,s
relations with Russia after the fighting in Georgia.
However, Simmons said that some issues remain in negotiating
corresponding transit arrangements through Uzbekistan and
Kazakhstan. Turkmenistan also offers a potential route,
though the Turkmen would need some signal from Russia that
this would be acceptable.


8. (C/NF) In regards to Pakistan, Simmons noted the ongoing
discussions of a balance of Presidential and Prime
Ministerial powers in Pakistan. He stated that Prime
Minister Gillani saw himself more in the UK model of a Prime
Minister. Simmons said his impression was that the U.S. was
not warm to the idea of making Pakistan a NATO global
partner. Boucher noted that there was no real U.S. position
on this issue, but that NATO could usefully help build the
Pakistani military through courses on counterinsurgency
doctrine and military transformation. Simmons related that
Pakistan desires a wider relationship with NATO, but for now
NATO was sticking to military-to-military contacts and
top-level political dialogue. (NOTE: In subsequent
conversations with Charge, Simmons clarified that a potential
"global partner" posture for Pakistan would not envisage a
NATO diplomatic presence in Pakistan. Simmons was not sure
whether some Allies would seek a corresponding status for
India as a book-end to a Pakistan relationship. END NOTE.)

NATO SECGEN DISCUSSES UPCOMING PAKISTAN VISIT


9. (C/NF): During his meeting with Boucher, the NATO
Secretary General noted he would travel to Pakistan at the
end of October and asked what Boucher thought NATO's role
should be in Pakistan. Boucher said that both President
Zardari and Prime Minister Gillani were personally committed
to fighting terrorism and it was important to help build the
notion that this is was a Pakistani fight with which the West
is assisting. It is also important to instill in the
military the recognition that while India may be the
existential threat to Pakistan, the Taliban is the urgent
threat. The military needed to transform away from the army
of the Punjab plain aimed at defending against an Indian
invasion, to an "army of the FATA" capable of conducting
counter-insurgency operations. Cooperation with NATO was
more palatable to most Pakistanis that with the U.S., and
cooperating through NATO made it easier for Pakistan to
cooperate with the West. The Secretary General agreed and
said he would carry much of that message with him to

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Pakistan. He said NATO's contribution could be through
training, such as by bringing Pakistani officers to NATO
training schools, and through sharing its own experience in
transforming from a force designed to defeat a Soviet
invasion to one conducting operations in Afghanistan.


10. (S/NF) In response the Secretary General's question
about the prospects for a regional approach, Boucher said it
was difficult to see where regional approaches were headed.
There had been cross-border Jirgas, the Canadians have been
bringing Pakistan and Afghanistan together to discuss border
issues, and Turkey had arranged a series of meeting between
the Heads of State. Boucher mentioned the U.S. and UK were
discussing forming a Friends of Pakistan group that would
include major countries in the region and regional
organizations. When he learned they were not planning to
include NATO, the Secretary General objected strongly and
wondered how the EU could be included but not NATO (reftel).
He urged the U.S. and UK to reconsider and said he was
worried about a tendency by others to see NATO as "a kind of
black sheep" even while its soldiers were fighting and dying
in Afghanistan. De Hoop Scheffer also noted with approval the
announced increase in U.S. forces in Afghanistan and said he
hoped the troops would go to fill gaps in the Combined Joint
Statement of Requirements rather than simply placed under
COMISAF command without specifically counting against the
Statement of Requirements, an arrangement that he felt took
pressure off other Allies to meet deficits.


11. (S/NF) COMMENT: The timing of Boucher's visit amidst
quickly rising sensitivity toward Afghanistan reactions to
civilian casualties was quite helpful. His consultative,
collegial style played very well with Allies, who are groping
for a way to feel they are players on core issues in
Afghanistan and the broader regional agenda. END COMMENT.
VOLKER