IAEA/DG SELECTION: PFIRTER JOINS AMANO IN THE RACE

S E C R E T UNVIE VIENNA 000164 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR IO, IO/T, ISN/MNSA, ISN/NESS, ISN/RA, EAP, WHA THE HAGUE FOR CWC DEL, AMBASSADOR JAVITS DOE FOR NA-24 SHEINMAN, MENDELSOHN, DALTON, GOODMAN, SIEMON/O'CONNOR NE FOR MCGINNIS, PEKO, LISANN, SYZMANSKI NA-20 FOR CONNERY NRC FOR OIP- DOANE, HENDERSON, SCHWARTZMAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/12/2018 TAGS: AORC IAEA KNPP JA AR SUBJECT: IAEA/DG SELECTION: PFIRTER JOINS AMANO IN THE RACE REF: UNVIE 739 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Ambassador Gregory L. Schulte for Reasons 1.4 b and d ¶1. (S) Summary: This cable is provided solely for the purpose of updating the Department on the state-of-play on IAEA DG succession. Consistent with previous instructions, Mission is not engaging publicly or privately in this campaign. The campaign for DG succession has coalesced around two more or less declared candidates, Japanese Ambassador Yukiya Amano and OPCW DG Rogelio Pfirter (Argentina). Amano has solidified Asia group support for his candidacy and Japan expects U.S. support, though we have not taken a position. Argentina has also approached Ambassador Schulte, who remained non-committal about Pfirter, and has begun to lobby other Board members. If Pfirter wins the support of GRULAC, two regional groups may be pitted against one another, which could pave the way for an in-house candidate. Both EXPO Director Vilmos Cserveny and Safeguards DDG Olli Heinonen have been mentioned as potential DG candidates. ElBaradei has not indicated interest in a re-election bid, but neither has he ruled it out. He has until the October 2008 Board meeting following the General Conference to announce his intentions. Procedures for selecting the DG are likely to be circulated to the Board in September, at which time the Secretariat would expect the Board to ratify the procedures. End Summary. -------------- Potential Amano-Pfirter Face-off -------------- ¶2. (S) Japanese Ambassador Amano's candidacy has gained momentum in the last few months, with the strong support of his government. According to Australian Ambassador Shannon, Amano has solidified Asia group support (Note: This would indicate that former Australian FM Gareth Evans is not in the running. End note.) Japan has pulled out all the stops for Amano, even inviting African Board of Governors members on all expense paid junkets to Tokyo. Japanese DCM Sumi recently approached DCM about Amano's candidacy, possibly in response to the prospect of an Argentine candidacy. DCM reiterated that the U.S. is not taking a position and reminded him that, as Ambassador Schulte had cautioned Amano, U.S. support could be counterproductive. Sumi nevertheless surmised that Japan expected the U.S. eventually to back Amano. ¶3. (S) While some Vienna diplomats had earlier mentioned the possibility of OPCW DG Rogelio Pfirter's candidacy, shortly before the March 3 Board meeting, Argentina began actively campaigning on his behalf. During the meeting, Argentine Ambassador Curia approached Ambassador Schulte saying that Argentina was exploring Pfirter's candidacy with Board members and "traditional" allies in the region. Pfirter's former Chief of Staff Rafael Mariano Grossi of the MFA accompanied Curia, who explained that Pfirter had all the right qualities and was well-respected for his record of managerial accomplishment in The Hague. Ambassador Schulte stipulated, per instructions, that the U.S. is not backing any candidate for IAEA DG but noted that U.S.-OPCW Ambassador Javitz held Pfirter in high regard. Grossi and Curia were busy lobbying at the Board meeting, systematically pulling aside other key Governors such as the UK and Germany. Curia said they would approach about three-quarters of the Board. Argentina is also working on GRULAC members. According to Board Chair and Chilean Ambassador Skoknic, Pfirter is well-known in Southern Cone countries but not as well in the broader Vienna-GRULAC group. ¶4. (S) If Pfirter wins GRULAC support, GRULAC and the Asia group could be pitted against one another. It is not clear that "Asia group" support for Amano extends to the Middle East South Asia group (MESA). Another factor to consider is G-77 support on the Board. A successful candidate for DG must win a two-thirds majority on the Board. The DG has not indicated that he would seek a fourth term, but has until the October 2008 Board meeting following the General Conference to formally announce. A disputed election could also pave the way for other internal candidates, and both Safeguards DDG Heinonen and EXPO Director Cserveny have been mentioned in this regard. -------------- Timeframe -------------- ¶5. (C) Skoknic insists on deferring the DG succession race until the end of his tenure as Board Chair in September 2008. It is possible that the DG selection will therefore be overseen by Abdul Minty of South Africa, who appears to be the leading Africa group candidate for Board Chair in 2008-2009. ¶6. (U) During the September Board meeting prior to the GC, the Board Chair will circulate the procedures for appointment of the DG, which were first adopted in 1997 and are not expected to be controversial. The Board will also set the deadline for applications, likely to be December 31, 2008. ¶7. (U) Under the procedures, the item "Appointment of the Director General" is placed on the agenda of the Board immediately following the 2008 General Conference. During that Board meeting in October, the Board Chair will announce whether the DG is or is not available for a further term of office. ¶8. (U) The Board Chair will report in the March 2009 Board meeting on his consultations regarding the candidates. The June Board will elect the next DG, who must win two-thirds majority support in closed session balloting. ¶9. (U) The September 2009 General Conference approves the appointment, and the new DG takes office on January 1, 2010. Comment -------------- ¶10. (S) As the DG race goes into full swing, it will be increasingly difficult for the U.S. to remain on the side-lines. The Japanese seem poised to make this a bilateral issue. Already a well-placed South Korean diplomat said that he had heard "from Washington" that Pfirter was the U.S. preferred candidate. Mission denied any such rumor and will continue to dodge the question whenever posed. As the race tightens, however, one or the other leading candidate will seek and expect U.S. support, even if a public endorsement is counterproductive. SCHULTE