BEN ALI ACKNOWLEDGES GAFSA UNREST -- FROM AFAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L TUNIS 000841 SIPDIS NEA/MAG (NARDI/STEWART); DRL (JOHNSTONE/KLARMAN) LONDON AND PARIS FOR NEA WATCHER E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/24/2018 TAGS: ELAB KPAO PGOV PHUM PREL TS SUBJECT: BEN ALI ACKNOWLEDGES GAFSA UNREST -- FROM AFAR REF: A. TUNIS 615 ¶B. TUNIS 596 ¶C. TUNIS 394 ¶D. TUNIS 131 Classified By: Ambassador Robert F. Godec for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) For the first time, President Ben Ali has publicly acknowledged the unrest that has been troubling the southwestern mining region of Gafsa since January 2008 (reftels). In July 16 remarks to members of the Gafsa governing council, the President blamed the difficulties on improper recruitment practices by the phosphate mining companies which deceived young people seeking employment. He announced agricultural and infrastructure projects, youth development, and tourism promotion efforts aimed at creating employment, raising the standard of living, and developing the region economically. There is skepticism, however, that private sector development or tourism can be attracted to the region, where unemployment is approaching 30 percent, double the national average. Gafsa remains under close police surveillance and President Ben Ali has yet to visit the province, reportedly due to security concerns. The possibility of more unrest is real. End Summary. -------------- Blame the Symptom, Ignore the Disease -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Members of the Gafsa governing council were invited by President Ben Ali to the presidential palace in Carthage for a July 16 meeting with President Ben Ali, at which the president delivered prepared remarks on the situation in Gafsa. According to press reports, Ben Ali blamed improper recruitment practices by the Phosphate Company of Gafsa (CPG) for the past six months of demonstrations in Gafsa. (Note: The CPG is the largest employer in Gafsa, but had not recruited new employees since mechanizing mining operations. In January 2008, it began recruiting for 80 new positions, receiving over 1000 applications. Labor protests were sparked when the company announced that the majority of hires would come from outside of the governorate. It is also widely believed that preferential treatment was given to local notables and those close to the ruling party.) The initial GOT response was to ignore the protests (Ref D). Later, heavy security was brought in to suppress demonstrations (Ref C). While CPG recruitment decisions were certainly a catalyst in causing the original unrest, the core problem is consistently cited as high unemployment and lack of serious attention by the GOT to the region's chronic under-development (Ref A). -------------- Still No Serious Solutions -------------- ¶3. (SBU) To address the unemployment-generated problems in Gafsa, President Ben Ali proposed new development projects, including agricultural and youth development, the building of roads, connection of natural gas and drinkable water lines, increasing complex industries, and creating a tourist circuit centered around the Berber sites in the area. However, economists such as Ali Bedoui, a member of the National Committee to Support the Inhabitants of the Gafsa Mining Basin, have voiced skepticism that these projects would be effective. According to Bedoui, the government's solutions "calm spirits, but treat the problem as if it was cyclical, without taking into account the realities and specifics of the region." Bedoui pointed out that it is "a little shocking" to suggest that artisans or tourists might be lured to the unattractive mining region, and added that private companies generally establish themselves on the coasts, rather than the interior. In addition, he pointed out the measures proposed by President Ben Ali do nothing for the rural, eastern parts of the mining basin, where there is greatest need for development. A member of the central committee for the Tunisian Human Rights League (LTDH) characterized the President's proposals as "empty," noting that they do little to address the underlying causes of chronic unemployment. Commentators have also pointed out that the President's announcements were not accompanied by a timetable for implementation. -------------- More Problems on the Horizon? -------------- ¶4. (C) In a July 21 conversation with the Political Office, members of the LTDH opined that the levels of frustration in Gafsa and Redeyef remain high, but protests have been curbed because of high levels of security. Should security forces be reduced, however, there may be a renewed wave of protests. The GOT is also making a renewed effort to dialogue with youth, but many Tunisians are dismissive of the government's efforts. One representative of an NGO in Sfax called the GOT's youth dialogues "useless" and was skeptical that the talks would prompt the government to take concrete steps based on young people's concerns. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶5. (C) Although President Ben Ali's public acknowledgment of the unrest in Gafsa is a positive step, his suggestions for alleviating the region's difficulties are more public relations than substantive policy. High levels of chronic unemployment, rather than questionable recruiting practices by the phosphate company, are the root cause of the unrest, and the government's prescriptions do not address this problem, which has been exacerbated by the rising cost of consumer staples and fuel. The fact that the president's announcements were made from Tunis, rather than during a visit to the governorate itself will likely only increase the feelings of alienation and frustration in Gafsa. The possibility of more unrest is real. End Comment. GODEC