TUNISIA ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TUNIS 000788 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR NEA/MAG (HARRIS) STATE PASS USTR (BURKHEAD) USDOC FOR ITA/MAC/ONE (NATHAN MASON),ADVOCACY CTR (REITZE),AND CLDP (TEJTEL) USDOC PASS USPTO (ADAMS, BROWN AND MARSHALL) CASABLANCA FOR FCS (ORTIZ) LONDON AND PARIS FOR NEA WATCHER E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON ETRD SENV EFIN BEXP ENRG TS SUBJECT: TUNISIA ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS ¶1. (U) This cable contains highlights of recent economic developments in Tunisia on the following topics: ¶A. Alstom Signs Contract for Power Plant ¶B. Energy and Agribusiness Widen Trade Deficit ¶C. Gas Price Hike... ¶D. IMF Counsels Subsidy Reform ¶E. Tunisia's Cereal Crop and Imports Down ¶F. Tunisia Olive Oil Exports Up 15 percent ¶G. Temporary Shortage of Vegetable Oil -------------- Alstom Signs Contract for Power Plant -------------- ¶2. (U) On July 1st, French engineering company Alstom signed a Euro 335 million (US $528.221 million) contract with the Tunisian state owned electrical utility (STEG) to build a 400-megawatt combined-cycle power plant in Tunisia. The new facility will be constructed on the site of the old thermal power plant of Ghannouch, in Southern Tunisia, according to local media. Alstom has secured an additional 12-year operation support and maintenance agreement but did not provide the financial details. Alstom was selected by STEG after the April 28-29 visit of French President Sarkozy to Tunisia. ¶3. (SBU) Comment: Since his election, Sarkozy has succeeded in securing several lucrative contracts in Tunisia by promoting French assistance in the field of power generation and nuclear energy for civil use. France and Tunisia signed a framework agreement for cooperation on nuclear energy similar to those France signed with Morocco, Algeria, Libya. Under the agreement, France will sell a nuclear plant to Tunisia after a period of 15 years. End Comment. -------------- Energy and Agribusiness Widen Trade Deficit -------------- ¶4. (U) On July 14, the Tunisian National Statistics Institute (INS) released trade figures for the first half of 2008. Compared to the same period in 2007, the Tunisian trade deficit widened 37 percent as imports jumped 27 percent, led by purchases of energy and agriculture goods. The deficit stood at TND 2.572 billion (US $2.186 billion),up from TND 1.877 billion (US $1.483 billion) a year earlier. Exports increased 24.6 percent to TND 12.235 billion (US $10.4 billion),while imports jumped 27 percent to TND 14.807 billion (US $12.586 billion). ¶5. (U) The upward trend of demand and prices for oil and commodities on the international market affected negatively Tunisia's energy and agribusiness balance, with respective deficits of TND 755.8 million (US $642.43 million) and 250.3 million (US $212.76 million). The value of petroleum product imports doubled to TND 2.479 billion (US $2.107 billion),as Tunisia imports most of its crude oil and refined petroleum products. Tunisia also exports some crude from aging wells. Agricultural purchases, mainly cereals, stood at TND 1.498 billion (US $1.273 billion) for the period, up from TND 1.152 billion (US $910 million) a year earlier. Meanwhile, the mining, phosphate, and derived products sector generated a trade surplus of TND 896 million (US $761.6 million),up from TND 384.4 million (US $303.7 million) in 2007, as Tunisia is the fifth largest phosphate producing nation in the world. ¶6. (U) Textile and clothing trade exports, one of Tunisia's major sources of hard currency, increased 3.1 percent, TND 2.854 billion (US $2.426 billion) up from TND 2.769 billion (US $2.187 billion). Tunisia's textile sector consists of off-shore (export only) and on-shore enterprises, which may also sell their products domestically. The off-shore side constitutes the engine for exports with TND 2.794 billion (US $2.375 billion),while on-shore companies generated only TND 60.3 million (US $51.25 million). Imports, TND 1.868 billion (US $1.588 billion),are almost static, with only a 0.1 percent increase, compared with last year. Imports for this TUNIS 00000788 002 OF 003 sector correspond almost exactly to the value of material shipped to supply Tunisia's off-shore companies. The trade balance for the sector shows a surplus of TND 986 million (US $838.1 million),up from TND 903 million (US $713.4 million) in 2007. -------------- Gas Price Hike... -------------- ¶7. (U) On July 6, the GOT increased petrol prices by 5.6 percent to cope with its energy deficit as oil import costs have risen sharply. A Ministry of Industry communique stipulated that the price of unleaded gas would increase from TND 1.250 (US $1.076) per liter to TND 1.320 (US $1.136). Premium-grade gasoline has increased from TND 1.245 (US $1.06) to TND 1.320 (US $1.13) per liter. To help explain the second increase in gas prices since March 2, the Ministry of Industry pointed out that the price hike will absorb only 20 percent of the actual increased cost born by the state budget. True cost of the GOT's subsidy program has increased from TND 400 million (US $344 million) to TND one billion (US $862.67 million). The subsidy budget had been based on the assumption that world oil prices would average US $75 per barrel, the Ministry said. -------------- ... While IMF Counsels Subsidy Reform -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The IMF's Article IV consultations report, released on July 10, stated that the current situation requires the GOT to pursue structural reforms and strengthening Tunisia's macroeconomic position. The report added that on the budgetary side, the authorities are faced with a delicate tradeoff between the need to maintain the purchasing power of Tunisians in the face of rising international prices of food and petroleum products while preserving fiscal sustainability over the medium to long term. Given the very rapid increase in direct and indirect subsidies related to these products, which the authorities currently estimate at 7.1 percent of GDP, and the strong likelihood that the current high world prices will persist, the IMF encouraged Tunisia to continue reforming its subsidy system and implement its energy conservation policy. -------------- Dim 2008 Cereal Crop Outlook Amid Soaring Cereal Imports -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Statistics recently released by the government-run National Statistics Institute (INS) showed a sizeable increase in Tunisia's combined durum and soft wheat imports during the five-month period ending May 2008, compared to the same period a year ago. Durum quantities shipped into the country increased by nearly 25 percent to reach 340.1 thousand MT whereas soft wheat imports stood at 577.8 thousand MT, up by a hefty 47 percent. This sustained wheat import trade is likely to continue as the 2008 wheat crop, currently being harvested, is believed to be below average. Scant rainfall during much of the last spring season took a toll on the wheat crop. Government of Tunisia has yet to issue its own crop estimate but Post has tentatively pegged overall wheat production at 1.25 million MT down from 1.45 Million MT reported last season. ¶10. (U) Unlike wheat, barley imports are down by over 52 percent during the same time period. On July 10, Reuters reported that Mustapha Lassoued, an official at the main farmers' union (UTAP), said that high costs of barley imports pushed the country to slash purchases and switch to corn and other cattle feed for its expanded livestock. Post's current estimate for 2008 barley production stands at 0.36 million MT, a 30-percent decrease from the previous year. Drought is once again the main culprit. ¶11. (U) Corn imports rose nearly 12 percent over the same period. This import level reflects continuing strong demand from poultry and dairy sectors alike. Overall demand for corn has been so far immune to international price hikes, thanks in part to subsidies and tax waivers granted by the Tunisian Government. -------------- Tunisia Olive Oil Exports Up 15 Percent -------------- TUNIS 00000788 003 OF 003 ¶12. (U) According to GOT figures, Tunisia's olive oil exports increased by 15 percent to 89,300 metric tons in the first quarter of this year compared to the same period last year. Olive oil represents half the country's farm exports, which account for more than 10 percent of total exports. Tunisia sells 90 percent of its olive output abroad, mainly to Europe. The value of olive oil exports rose to TND 398.2 million (US $338.47 million) for the period from TND 291.9 million (US $230.6 million). Tunisia is the world's fourth-largest olive oil producer. Over the past decade, its olive crops average averaged 145,000 metric tones per year. The GOT aims to boost local production to 210,000 metric tons in the coming three years. ¶13. (U) More than a tenth of the nation's 10 million inhabitants benefit from the labor-intensive olive oil industry, with 60 million olive trees covering 1.6 million hectares. In order to upgrade exports receipts from olive oil, the GOT is encouraging national oil producers to shift their marketing of olive oil from bulk to bottled product. -------------- Temporary Shortage of Vegetable Oil -------------- ¶14. (U) On June 3, Tunisian media reported a temporary shortage of subsidized edible oil due to a change in domestic marketing. On June 6, a National Office of Oil (ONH) communique denied the shortage of subsidized edible oil, stating that the GOT had decided to sell bottled edible oil instead of the bulk oil, due to national health considerations. ¶15. (SBU) Comment: The most likely culprit for the temporary shortage of edible oil was smuggling activities between Tunisia and Algeria. Algerian newspaper El Khabar has reported that the soaring prices of edible oil in Algeria prompted smugglers to create new smuggling methods on the eastern borders, including bringing edible oil from Tunisia inside petrol cans. According to El Khabar, five litres of Tunisian subsidized edible oil were being re-sold in Algerian shops for Algerian Dinars (AD) 300-400 (roughly US $4.62 to $6.16),while locally produced vegetable oils had reached AD 700-800 (US $10.77 to $12.31). End Comment.