TUNISIA/DEMOCRATIC REFORM II: VOTER APATHY

C O N F I D E N T I A L TUNIS 000273 SIPDIS SIPDIS NEA/FO (GRAY) NEA/MAG (HOPKINS/HARRIS); DRL (JOHNSTONE/KLARMAN) LONDON AND PARIS FOR NEA WATCHER E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/16/2018 TAGS: PHUM PGOV PREL KDEM KPAO TS SUBJECT: TUNISIA/DEMOCRATIC REFORM II: VOTER APATHY REF: A. TUNIS 258 ¶B. 07 TUNIS 1470 ¶C. 07 TUNIS 904 ¶D. 07 TUNIS 1058 ¶E. 07 TUNIS 1404 Classified By: Ambassador Robert F. Godec for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Despite official voter registration and presidential election participation rates of almost 90 percent, most Tunisians say they prefer not to vote. Lack of transparency, allegations of fraud, and the sense that election results are a foregone conclusion are all major causes of voter apathy. Notwithstanding prevailing apathy vis-a-vis the elections, civil society activists are hopeful that some meaningful reforms will be possible in the run-up to the 2009 elections. End Summary. ¶2. (C) This second of a three-part series addresses trends affecting political participation and voter apathy. Part I (Ref A) outlines our strategy for promoting a more level playing field in the run-up to the 2009 elections. Part III will address the perspective from Tunisia's beleaguered opposition parties. -------------- Voting by the Book -------------- ¶3. (U) The legal requirements for voting in Tunisia are relatively straightforward. In order to register to vote one must be eighteen years of age and have possessed Tunisian nationality for over five years. Tunisians who meet these requirements can register to vote at the municipal council in the district where they were born or reside. A card with the name of the voter, voter ID number, and the polling station is mailed to the voter. Elections always take place on a Sunday between 8:00 am and 6:00 pm. Voters must present both their voter ID card and their national ID card to enter the polling station. Lists of registered voters are available (during the months of January and July) at the municipal council, to allow for the rectification of errors on the list before elections. The law prohibits people who suffer from mental disabilities from voting. Also ineligible to vote are members of government security forces (including the police and the military) and anyone who has ever been sentenced to more than three months in prison (for criminal offenses). Those who have received suspended prison sentences of more than six months are also ineligible to vote. Some civil society activists also allege that the registration process is politicized in that known opposition activists may experience administrative delays and never receive their voter IDs. Anyone lacking a national ID card, a category that includes many political dissidents, is also unable to vote. -------------- Fun With Numbers -------------- ¶4. (C) It is difficult to accurately gauge the level of voter participation, given the disparity in available data. Although most Tunisian contacts say they prefer not to participate in elections, GOT statistics indicate that over 90 percent of eligible voters are registered and over 90 percent of registered voters participated in the 2004 presidential elections. According to independent NGOs, however, less than 30 percent of voters participated. A UN survey on youth indicated that 72.3 percent of Tunisian youth declined to vote. Government figures for the December 2007 municipal elections in Hammam-Lif, La Goulette and Zaghouan indicated that voter participation was 67.43 percent, 63.83 percent, and 71.02 percent respectively. Casual observers, however, said that voting stations were scarcely populated during the day. Statistical differences aside, there is a general concern, both in the government and among civil society, about low levels of political participation, especially that of young people. There is widespread voter apathy among youth, many of whom doubt that their vote will make a difference. Some contacts report that they deliberately avoid GOT door-to-door efforts to register voters, by denying they live in a residence or claiming to be a domestic employee. Even so, there are reports that despite having never registered, some people have received their voter ID card "automatically." ¶5. (C) Meanwhile, some Tunisians who do register and seek to vote face challenges. Although the situation is no longer such that Tunisians may vote on behalf of family members, as was the case a generation ago, civil society activists still allege that many forms of voter intimidation and fraud exist. One contact said she had gone to vote on election day, only to be told that she had already voted. Voters have also reported fear of retaliation by the Ministry of the Interior (MOI),which administers the elections, if they do not vote for the ruling party. Ballots are color-coded by party, and picked up outside the voting booth, thus an individual's party affiliation is easily identified by workers in the voting station. Despite regulations mandating opaque envelopes, there have been reports of transparent envelopes which further erode a voter's right to privacy. To avoid charges of "disloyalty," some individuals reportedly make a show of only selecting the ballot of the ruling Constitutional Democratic Rally (RCD). Adding to the lack of transparency is the fact that after voting has concluded, ballots are collected and counted privately by MOI elections officials, often without opposition party representatives present. Activists also allege that ballot boxes are sometimes switched en route. According to an article in the opposition weekly al-Mowqif, during the December 2007 municipal elections in Hammam-Lif, La Goulette and Zaghouan, one observer noted that the ballot boxes were switched at the polling station, but the head of the polling station refused to acknowledge the incident. ¶6. (C) Limited choices also contribute to voter apathy. Most Tunisians rightly assume that the ruling Democratic Constitutional Rally (RCD) candidates will win no matter how they vote. Besides the many obstacles for independent candidates, few of the legal opposition parties have a national presence or recognition. While several of the opposition parties have existed for decades, most do not have a well-articulated political and economic platform that distinguishes them from their rivals (neither does this seem to be a priority). For example, the ostensibly environmentally focused Green Party for Progress (PVP) Secretary General Mongi Khamassi told PolOffs on February 5 SIPDIS that he felt environmental issues were secondary to economic development. Development first (though no details regarding how that is best achieved) is a sentiment echoed by the so-called loyal opposition parties such as the Popular Unity Party (PUP),Social Democratic Movement (MDS),and the Social Liberal Party (PSL). Meanwhile, independent opposition parties are generally so denigrated by the GOT few Tunisians are interested in learning more about their platforms. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) Voter apathy in Tunisia is so entrenched, it is hard to generate significant public interest in the elections or possible elections reform. A significant percentage of the population still seems prepared to forego political participation for GOT-provided social and economic security. Despite this, opposition parties and civil society activists are optimistic that general reforms can be made in time to impact the 2009 elections experience, which would provide a foundation for future reform efforts. End Comment. Please visit Embassy Tunis' Classified Website at: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/tunis/index.c fm GODEC