A/S WELCH'S TOUR D'HORIZON WITH MINISTER OF

S E C R E T TUNIS 000194 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS FOR NEA/FO - WELCH AND GRAY; NEA/MAG - HOPKINS AND HARRIS NSC FOR ABRAMS AND YERGER E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/28/2018 TAGS: PREL PTER IR IZ SY LE SE XI SUBJECT: A/S WELCH'S TOUR D'HORIZON WITH MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS ABDALLAH REF: A. TUNIS 193 ¶B. TUNIS 84 Classified By: Ambassador Robert F. Godec for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (S) In the course of several hours of interactions between NEA A/S Welch and Foreign Minister Abdallah on February 28, Welch conveyed the latest US thinking on Lebanon, Syria, the proposed Arab League summit, Iraq, Iran, the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, and Kosovo, among other topics. Abdallah responded that: -- He was not optimistic about a solution to the situation in Lebanon in the short term. On the upcoming Arab League summit, the Syrians are convinced that postponing the summit would reflect badly on Syria. Thus, the SARG is trying to convince Arab states to participate, notwithstanding the absence of a President in Lebanon. -- In the face of the Israeli siege on Gaza, Hamas had been able to win the sympathy of those who had previously rejected their separatism. Tunisia would not be "against" the notion of moderate Arab states helping to create a public perception of momentum behind the negotiating process, but he also referred to the difficulty posed by the current situation on the ground. -- Tunisia has not "yet" recognized Kosovo; while the GOT favors self-determination, it does not want to make this decision in a "religious optic." The GOT will also take into consideration discussions on the matter at the upcoming OIC summit in Dakar. Abdallah also previewed that the GOT would "soon" reopen its Embassy in Qatar, notwithstanding the GOT's continued displeasure with al-Jazeera's hostile media coverage vis-a-vis Tunisia. Abdallah's mood was positive and his tone friendly. He was visibly pleased with the visit and positively beamed when talking about President Ben Ali's satisfaction with it. End Summary. 2.(C) Following the lengthy meeting between NEA A/S Welch and President Ben Ali, which Foreign Minister Abdelwaheb Abdallah attended (Ref A),the FM hosted a working lunch for Welch, the Ambassador, Executive Assistant to the Deputy National Security Advisor, NEA Staff Assistant and Pol/EconCouns. The lunch was followed by an extended office call. The mood in both was friendly and the conversation relaxed. Abdallah started the lunch by commenting on how "at ease" President Ben Ali had been: "It was clear that he felt he was speaking with a friend and not just an American official." -------------- Lebanon/Syria/Iran and the Arab League Summit -------------- ¶3. (C) Turning to the prospect of a new president being elected in Lebanon, A/S Welch laid out three possible scenarios: (a) Election of a president by consensus; (b) Election by 50 percent plus one; or (c) No election -- a continuation of the current situation, with authorities in place exercising controls of government. He continued that the USG would prefer to see a president elected, but not at any price. Thus, we need to be prepared for the third option. Abdallah responded that there does not appear to be a sense of urgency in Lebanon to elect a president. Rather, the Lebanese people are getting used to the notion that their institutions can keep running, even without a president in place. ¶4. (C) Abdallah said that he was not optimistic that a solution would be found in the near future. The problem, he said, is not just Syria, but also Iran. He attributed the "rigid attitude of Hizballah" to the confidence on the part of Hizballah leaders that Iran will back them up. The FM referred to a conversation he had had with his Iranian counterpart, whom he said had asked for Tunisia's assistance in persuading African states that they would benefit from improved relations with Iran. Abdallah said he took the opportunity to ask his counterpart to help "smooth things out" with Hizballah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. The response, he said, was clear: "Hizballah and Hamas are simply following their destiny." ¶5. (C) A/S Welch asked FM Abdallah for his views on how the Arab League summit planned for March 5-6 would play out. Abdallah responded that the Syrians are in the midst of a campaign to convince member states to participate in the summit. His assessment was that the Syrians seem to believe that postponing the summit would reflect badly on Syria. Asked how the situation would likely play out if it is not postponed, Abdallah predicted that "most" Arab countries, except Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and perhaps some Gulf countries, would follow Syria's urgings and participate in the summit. Jordan, he continued, has not yet decided. Tunisia would participate, but not at the presidential level (Ref A). He explained that the GOT does not want to jeopardize its "excellent" bilateral relations with Syria, including in the realm of counter-terrorism cooperation. -------------- No Promises On Sending a Positive Signal -------------- ¶6. (C) Expanding on his earlier discussion with President Ben Ali on the matter, A/S Welch laid out the US perspective on Israeli-Palestinian developments. On the one hand, there is progress on the bilateral negotiating track. While the substance of the Israeli-Palestinian talks is being kept secret, Welch opined that the content was "encouraging." At SIPDIS the same time, the deterioration in the situation on the ground is problematic. Among other things, it poses risks to both the government of Palestinian Prime Minister Abbas and the coalition led by Israeli Prime Minister Olmert. ¶7. (S) In this context, Welch explored with Abdallah current US thinking on how best to protect the negotiation track in the face of risks to it on the ground. He emphasized the importance of demonstrating that the negotiation track will yield tangible results to the Israeli and Palestinian people. On the Palestinian side, one way to accomplish this would be by addressing the hardships of occupation. On the Israeli side, he said, there are various ideas about how to signal to the Israeli people that they too will benefit from peace. While respecting the confidentiality of the talks, Welch suggested that there were other means to demonstrate momentum, whether through a revival of the multilateral talks or through other engagement. Welch urged "creative thinking" among moderate Arab states about how to send such a signal, noting that countries like Morocco and Bahrain had indicated quietly that they would be willing to help. He underscored that those in the Israeli cabinet who are prepared to pay the cost of a settlement would benefit from much-needed credibility among their peers as a result of such moves. ¶8. (C) Abdallah said that the GOT is "not against" such an approach. At the same time, he said, the problem for moderate countries like Tunisia is the situation on the ground. Echoing comments he had made previously to the Ambassador (Ref B),Abdallah expressed disappointment that the Israeli blockade of Gaza had been a "gift" to Hamas leaders, who had been able to exploit the situation to portray Hamas as "martyrs" and win the sympathy of the population. "It's as if the people have completely forgotten that they were separatists!" he exclaimed. Referring to the expected visit to Tunisia of Palestinian President Abbas in March, Abdallah undertook to brief Ambassador Godec on the substance of his meetings. -------------- Iraq/Iran -------------- ¶9. (C) A/S Welch briefed the FM on recent developments in Iraq, explaining the logic behind US policy. He noted that there is increasing contact between Arab countries and Iraqi representatives, and answered affirmatively to Abdallah's question about the likelihood of Saudi Arabia reopening its Embassy. In response to Abdallah's query about Iranian influence in Iraq, Welch noted that there has been some success in interrupting contact between the al-Quds brigade of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and certain Shi'a militias in Iraq. -------------- - The Threat of Extremism in North Africa, Egypt -------------- - ¶10. (C) Abdallah noted with pride that Tunisians have traditionally been characterized as a "rational" people, unlike many other Arab nationals, including in North Africa, where the phenomenon of Islamic extremism is on the rise. A/S Welch asked for clarification about comments President Ben Ali had made about the "explosiveness" of the region and in Egypt in particular. The FM explained that there is a perception that the United States has "more or less" abandoned the GOE, just as Egypt is facing broadening support for radical Islamists. Welch made clear that the strategic relationship between the United States and Egypt is intact. Abdallah blamed Arab media outlets, such as al-Jazeera, for fanning the flames of extremism, noting that the GOT had closed its Embassy in Qatar in October, 2006, to protest al-Jazeera's coverage. He previewed, however, that the GOT would "soon" reopen its Embassy in Qatar. The GOT remains incensed over the "ferociousness" of its coverage of Tunisia, but he had concluded that it did not make sense to "cut the thread" completely. -------------- Kosovo: Not Yet -------------- ¶11. (C) Asked about GOT policy vis-a-vis Kosovo, Abdallah responded that Tunisia has not "yet" recognized Kosovo. He explained that while the GOT favors self-determination it does not want to make this decision in a "religious optic." For now, Abdallah said, Tunisia is waiting and seeing how other countries react. He expressed surprise that no African country had yet recognized Kosovo as an independent state. Indicating that he would be leading the Tunisian delegation to the OIC summit in Dakar, Abdallah said he planned to take advantage of this opportunity to sound out neighboring countries from Africa and the Arab world. Asked if the GOT had been lobbied on this matter by other countries, Abdallah acknowledged that the Greek Foreign Minister had just concluded a visit to Tunisia. huckling, he pointed out that her meeting with Pesident Ben Ali had lasted only 45 minutes, whil A/S Welch's had been an hour longer. The Serbins asked the MFA for its position on the matter without trying to influence them, Abdallah continued. Queried about any Russian contact, he said that they had only been active at the Ambassadorial level in Tunisia. -------------- Topics for Next US-AMU Meeting? -------------- ¶12. (C) A/S Welch suggested that if the October 2007 discussions on the margins of the UNGA between then-U/S Burns and the foreign ministers of the Maghreb states serves as a model for future such discussions, it would make sense to include on the agenda more discussion of African issues, such as Sudan and Chad. Abdallah agreed, suggesting that the issue of Somalia could also be added to the agenda. -------------- Bio Note -------------- ¶13. (C) At one point in the conversation, Abdallah made reference to the comedy program, "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart." He said that it is one of his favorite TV programs, and that he and his children watch it regularly via satellite. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶14. (S) Abdallah was in high spirits and seemed genuinely pleased with the visit. He visibly beamed when relating Ben Ali's positive assessment of his meeting with Welch. Throughout the lunch and subsequent meeting, Abdallah's mood was positive and his tone friendly. The FM appeared willing to consider outreach to Israel, but the current situation in Gaza is clearly problematic for him. We will, however, continue to explore options and ideas with the FM. The GOT's foreign policy is among the most moderate in the region and the FM has already met quietly with FM Livni. Ongoing, high-level contact with the Tunisians may yet yield some success. End Comment. ¶15. (U) A/S Welch did not have an opportunity to clear this cable. Please visit Embassy Tunis' Classified Website at: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/tunis/index.c fm GODEC