OPPOSITION LEADER DECLARES CANDIDACY FOR PRESIDENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L TUNIS 000144

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/MAG (HOPKINS/HARRIS); DRL (JOHNSTONE/KLARMAN)
LONDON AND PARIS FOR NEA WATCHER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM KPAO TS
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADER DECLARES CANDIDACY FOR PRESIDENT

REF: A. 07 TUNIS 01283


B. 07 TUNIS 01248

C. 07 TUNIS 1404

Classified By: Ambassador Robert F. Godec for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

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Summary
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1. (SBU) In a February 13 press conference, the opposition
Progressive Democratic Party (PDP) announced its former
Secretary General Nejib Chebbi would be the party's candidate

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for president for the 2009 presidential elections. Chebbi's
candidacy was supported by a number of prominent independent
activists who also attended the press conference. Tunisia's
current electoral law virtually rules out the possibility
that Chebbi will be able to run, but PDP Secretary General
Maya Jribi called on the government to modify electoral laws
to allow the candidacy. One time "exceptional" laws
regarding candidacy are normally issued by the president a
few months prior to elections. The PDP political bureau
issued a statement advocating that, in order to promote free
and fair elections, such laws should be propagated as soon as
possible. End Summary.


2. (C) On February 13, the opposition Progressive
Democratic Party (PDP) officially announced that its former
Secretary General Nejib Chebbi would be the party's candidate

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for the 2009 presidential elections. Though many groups have
called for incumbent President Ben Ali to run in 2009, Chebbi
is the first to officially announce his candidacy. PDP
Secretary General Maya Jribi made the announcement while

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simultaneously calling for a broad range of political
reforms. Despite boycotting the 2004 legislative elections,
Jribi also announced the PDP's intention to put forward a
slate of parliamentary candidates in 2009. In her press
statement, Jribi advocated greater liberties for NGOs (ref
A),freeing political prisoners, increasing freedom of the
press, and electoral reform. Jribi opined that electoral
reform in particular is necessary to promote free and fair
elections and combat voter apathy. Similarly, increased
freedom of expression would help with the upcoming 2009
elections' transparency. She characterized the existing
electoral system as one that condescendingly allocates
Parliamentary seat quotas to opposition parties rather than
fostering true competition.


3. (C) Rumors of Chebbi's candidacy have been circulating
for several weeks. Press reports, and items circulating on
the internet hinted at internal party discord about it. When
the press asked Chebbi about the uniformity of his party's
backing, he responded that while there was some dissent, the
process was democratic and a majority approved the candidacy.
He also clarified that the October 18th movement (an
alliance of disparate human rights and political activists
that includes moderate Islamists),of which Chebbi is also a
member, does not support any particular candidate. He said
that movement advocates anti-corruption measures, freedom
expression and association, free and fair elections, and the
release of political prisoners. It has no plans to endorse
politicians, although politicians are members.

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Throwing Down the Gauntlet
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4. (C) Chebbi's press statement focused on the need for
free and fair elections and asked that the 2009 elections not
be a repeat of the 2004 elections, which several civil
society groups have described as procedurally flawed.
Despite GOT propaganda, Chebbi said, Tunisia faces a growing
problem of unemployment, especially among college graduates.
He also denounced the uneven distribution of resources
between regions of the country. He argued that GOT policies
had diminished Tunisians' ability to compete in the global
market, and promised that he would promote both political
openness and economic growth. Chebbi's speech also noted the
government has a responsibility to provide better health
care, increased infrastructure, and increased economic
growth.


5. (C) The best way to accomplish economic growth and
stability, Chebbi argued, was with political openness, which
would give people a stake in their future. Chebbi stated
increased political participation would create more
stability, not less. He called on the government to modify
the law to allow independents to run, rather than restricting
participation only to hand-picked candidates. The PDP would
push to hold meetings, campaign, and present the party
platform, whether his candidacy was allowed, and that his
candidacy's legality would not affect the PDP's legislative
campaign efforts. When asked if his candidacy would be
difficult for the GOT to accept, Chebbi answered that he felt
the population has a right to plurality and free and fair
elections. Whether the PDP achieves its objectives, it would
still have contributed to positive change.

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Current Law an Obstacle
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6. (C) Current law virtually rules out the possibility of a
Chebbi candidacy at this time, as it requires that each
presidential candidate garner the support of 30 members of
parliament or local mayors. Since these politicians are all
affiliated with either the ruling or loyal opposition
parties, and there are no PDP-affiliated mayors or members of
parliament, Chebbi is unlikely to receive such an
endorsement. Jribi called on the government to modify
electoral laws to allow Chebbi to run. One time
"exceptional" laws regarding candidacy are normally issued by
the president a few months prior to elections, but the PDP's
political bureau issued a statement advocating that such a
law be propagated as soon as possible to foster free and fair
elections. The PDP has previously suggested that the
Portuguese model of accumulating the signatures of a certain
percentage of the population be used as an alternate means of
validating candidates.


7. (C) The PDP press conference also included comments from
a dozen prominent independent activists. Their spokesman,
Khemais Chemmari, noted that independents supported the right
of every willing candidate to run for elected office, and it
was in this context that they advocated modification of the
electoral laws. Chemmari said Tunisians deserve a choice,
and that the elections was an opportunity for them to express
their political will. He characterized present electoral
laws as handicapping Tunisia's advancement by disallowing
candidates. After Chemmari, attorney Ayachi Hammami (see Ref
B) spoke in support of Chebbi. Also present were attorney
Mohamed Abbou, journalist Lotfi Hajji, and members of the
opposition Et-tajdid party.

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Comment
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8. (C) By declaring his candidacy, Chebbi and the PDP have
thrown down a gauntlet before the GOT. Failing to clarify
electoral law early or to allow Chebbi's candidacy would
discredit the 2009 elections, but allowing Chebbi to run
would provide the PDP a platform the GOT has hereto been
unwilling to provide (Ref C). Chebbi's entire platform is
built on reforms the GOT has been slow (or unwilling) to
embrace. The international community is likely to follow
Chebbi's candidacy closely; his treatment will be an
indicator of the GOT's willingness to pursue meaningful
political reform. To that end, a number of embassies
(including the French, British, Germans, Americans, and the
European Union) sent representatives to the press conference.
End Comment.
GODEC