LIBYA FAVORS MORE TIME FOR AFRICAN MEDIATION IN ZIMBABWE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TRIPOLI 000538 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF, AF/C, AF/SPG, AF/SE, AND NEA/MAG E.O. 12958: DECL: 7/7/2018 TAGS: PREL ZI SU CD UN LY SUBJECT: LIBYA FAVORS MORE TIME FOR AFRICAN MEDIATION IN ZIMBABWE REF: A) STATE 70882, B) TRIPOLI 473, C) TRIPOLI 406, D) STATE 61842 CLASSIFIED BY: John Godfrey, A/DCM, AmEmbassy Tripoli, State. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary. The GOL is "bound by the AU decision" to support a South Africa-led national reconciliation process in Zimbabwe and will not support a draft UNSC resolution calling for targeted sanctions on key Mugabe regime figures. Libya's top officials responsible for African affairs urged more time for African mediation efforts in Zimbabwe and bluntly told the U.S. not/not to get involved in the crisis. The GOL remains equally frustrated with both Chad and Sudan and has conditioned any future mediation on both countries' leaders offering a "real commitment" to a political settlement. End Summary. ¶2. (U) MFA Secretary for African Union Affairs Ali Treiki met with CDA on July 7. Libya's former ambassador to Zimbabwe, Mahmoud al-Azzabi, and Poloff also attended. ZIMBABWE ¶3. (C) Responding to ref A demarche points, Treiki voiced displeasure with politically-motivated violence in connection with the June 27 elections in Zimbabwe, but stressed that Libya is "bound by the AU decision" to support a national reconciliation process mediated by South Africa. Libya will not/not support a draft UNSC resolution that called for an arms embargo and targeted sanctions on key Mugabe regime figures (ref A). Treiki urged more time -- "days and weeks" -- to allow African countries to mediate and reiterated his long-standing opposition to sanctions, which he called "unhelpful." UNSC sanctions on regime figures would only harden the regime and complicate African efforts to promote a national reconciliation. ¶4. (C) Treiki refused to offer his personal views on the AU's position on Zimbabwe but said that Libya has tried to support South Africa's mediation efforts. Libyan leader Muammar Qadhafi held a private meeting with Mugabe on the margins of the AU summit in Sharm El Sheikh. In the run-up to the presidential election, Treiki dispatched al-Azzabi, a top aide and former Libyan ambassador to Harare, to monitor the situation. Treiki voiced concerns that South African president Thabo Mbeki has a strained relationship with the Zimbabwe opposition. He criticized opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai as "uneducated" and complained about his frequent reversals on whether or not to stand in the presidential elections. ¶5. (C) Using uncharacteristically blunt language, Treiki cautioned the U.S. not/not to get involved in the current Zimbabwe crisis: "really, do not get directly involved." He criticized Tsvangirai for seeking refuge in the Dutch Embassy in Harare in response to safety concerns rather than in a neighboring African country, noting, disapprovingly, that the opposition leader is seen as very "pro-Western." CHAD / SUDAN ¶6. (C) Treiki reported that Chadian President Idriss Deby and Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir asked Qadhafi on the margins of the AU summit in Sharm El Sheikh to continue Libya's efforts to mediate in the on-going Chad-Sudan crisis (refs B and C). Treiki expressed frustration that both leaders "do not respect their agreements" and conditioned Libya's future efforts to mediate on a real commitment from both sides. Treiki was pessimistic on the future of the Dakar Accord Contact Group, describing the July 17 meeting in Dakar as "more show than substance" and noting that mediation would not be successful without a commitment from Deby and Bashir to a political settlement. ¶7. (C) Treiki voiced satisfaction with U.S. support for UNSC sanctions on JEM-affiliated individuals, including JEM faction leader Khalil Ibrahim (ref D). (Note: While Libya has consistently opposed sanctions on African governments, it has pushed for "consequences" for rebel leaders who refuse to participate in peaceful negotiations. End note.) Treiki offered lukewarm support to new UN/AU joint mediator Djibril Bassole, raising concerns about Bassole's lack of experience compared with former UN S/E Jan Eliasson and AU S/E Salim Salim. ¶8. (C) Treiki reiterated previous calls for Deby to make real concessions to opposition groups as part of a domestic political reconciliation. "Deby wants the opposition to surrender, not negotiate," he said. Deby is "not serious" about dialogue and refuses to accept that he cannot govern Chad from a Zaghawa TRIPOLI 00000538 002 OF 002 tribal base that represents only 6% of the population. Libya remains concerned that Deby is still arming JEM leader Khalil Ibrahim while Sudan continually supports Chadian opposition groups. GODFREY