No Push for Elections as Canadians Focus on Local Issues

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TORONTO 000090 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON CA SUBJECT: No Push for Elections as Canadians Focus on Local Issues Sensitive But Unclassified - Please protect accordingly. ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Mission Canada reporting officers concur that, from the brink of defeat in the fall of 2007, Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper's government has established itself as a stable minority government, pushing through a relatively impressive policy agenda such as a renewed commitment to Canadian engagement in Afghanistan, Haiti and Darfur; domestic security measures such as the Omnibus crime bill and a refined security-certificate process; and significant tax cuts. On March 25 Mission Canada reporting officers concluded that Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper's government draws its stability from different sources across the country. Provincial governments and the populations they represent (except Ontario; Newfoundland and Labrador; and Nova Scotia) are either focused more on local issues or have established a relatively peaceful relationship with the Harper-led federal government. Across the country the federal Liberals-particularly Leader Stephane Dion-- are perceived to be weak, ineffectual, and incapable of forming an effective opposition, let alone a viable alternative to Harper's Conservatives. Economic and environmental concerns tend to dominate voters' minds in eastern Canada, with crime a higher priority in the west. This first country-wide DVC dialogue among reporting officers from eight Mission Canada posts reflected the wide variety of issues and diversity of provincial government configurations, illustrated the difficulty of generalizing political developments, and underscored the delicate balancing act the federal government faces, especially in a minority status. END SUMMARY. -------------- Mission Canada Confers -------------- ¶2. (U) Mission Canada reporting officers on March 25 initiated a new monthly DVC forum to focus on political and economic issues by exchanging views and offering different local and provincial perspectives on national issues. The kick-off topic was the perception of the performance of the Harper government so far, and prospects for a new federal election. Reporting officers from all Canada posts took part, as well as representatives from WHA/CAN. -------------- The Provinces Make Do -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Across Canada, most provinces are relatively satisfied with Prime Minister Stephen Harper's leadership, or are so absorbed in their own provincial issues that a change in federal leadership is seen as unwanted and/or unnecessary. Big picture national issues such as Afghanistan do not appear to have traction in the day-to-day provincial evaluations of the federal government's performance. ¶4. (SBU) Given PM Harper's roots in Western Canada, support for the Conservatives in Alberta and neighboring Saskatchewan remains high. Some ConGen Calgary contacts have complained that Harper's government is insufficiently accommodating on issues important to Western Canadians, such as emissions regulations and climate change. However, given the Liberal alternative, a significant reduction in support for the Conservatives is extremely unlikely, a trend reflected in the overwhelming victory of Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach's Progressive Conservative party on March 3, and the election win by center-right Saskatchewan Party Premier Brad Wall in November 2007. ¶5. (SBU) Further west in British Columbia, the flourishing economy and uniquely independent character of the BC Liberals in the provincial government have enabled them to establish a cooperative and generally positive relationship with the federal government. With the 2010 Olympics rapidly approaching, the provincial government is busy creating the fundamentals to solidify lasting economic growth, including the Pacific Gateway, and is implementing new programs that largely complement federal economic initiatives. Currently, there does not appear to be a groundswell of support in BC for change at the federal level. ¶6. (SBU) Dalton McGuinty's Ontario government, in contrast, has staked out policy priorities intentionally designed to contrast with the government in Ottawa. The ongoing partisan spat between the Ontario Finance Minister Dwight Duncan and federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty over Ontario's business tax policy is just one of an ongoing series of conflicts. Targeted assistance to Ontario's ailing manufacturers is another major area of disagreement. Neither the Ontario government nor federal ministers have concealed their respective desires for different partners (Note: Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty appeared to have at least temporarily buried the hatchet on March 27 when they jointly announced C$709 million in federal support for provincial assistance programs. End Note). ¶7. (SBU) In Atlantic Canada, the long-standing sense of neglect compared to the rest of the country continues to varying degrees. Newfoundland and Labrador's Premier Danny Williams, although a Conservative himself, has vowed to campaign actively against the TORONTO 00000090 002 OF 003 Harper government in the next federal election. "Anyone but Conservative," is his battle cry. Similarly, but with less vitriol, Nova Scotia's Rodney MacDonald (also a Conservative) has had problems with how PM Harper has treated his province, although there are recent signs of an incipient rapprochement between the two leaders. In contrast, New Brunswick's Liberal Premier Shawn Graham has established a solid working relationship with the federal government. Despite their misgivings about the federal government, absent a more competitive federal Liberal alternative, there is not a widespread appetite among Atlantic Canadians for a federal election at this time. ¶8. (SBU) In Quebec, home of significant Conservative breakthroughs in the 2006 federal election, PM Harper has been surprisingly successful. His 2007 motion to recognize Quebec as a "nation within Canada" was a strategic victory that continues to work to his benefit. Harper gets credit for delivering the programs he promised during the election campaign. He has a politically pragmatic relationship with Premier Charest. While the federal Liberals may still be strong in Montreal, in the rest of Quebec, a visceral distaste for Stephane Dion leaves the Conservatives as the only viable alternative to the Bloc Quebecois. -------------- Stephane Dion: Who is This Guy? -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Provincial contacts across the country have commented that Stephane Dion's leadership has been a disaster and that the Liberals are currently not in a position successfully to contest an election. Dion's perceived ineptness has proven to be a source of stability for the minority Harper government. Conservative insiders in Vancouver and Toronto have noted that Dion is a "better" alternative from the Conservative perspective than any of the other potential Liberal leaders, who might provide stronger leadership in opposition. The recent by-election victory of Liberal foreign affairs critic Bob Rae is a reminder that the federal Liberals have several high-profile, politically talented personalities who could credibly assume the party's leadership mantle upon Dion's departure. ¶10. (SBU) While merely unpopular in most of the country, Dion is still reviled as "traitor" in large parts of Quebec due to his past strident opposition of Quebec sovereignty, and, especially his role in the federal Clarity Act which sets the guidelines for any new Quebec referendum on secession. By-election defeats and criticism of his Quebec "team" have contributed to the decline of the party in areas outside Montreal. ¶11. (SBU) Apart from Dion's leadership problems, the Federal Liberals might be financially unable effectively to contest an election if they were to bring the government down, contacts have noted. Though Ottawa-based Liberal leaders have denied that the party is in financial trouble, several failed candidates from the 2006 leadership race are still paying off debts resulting from the campaign (Note: This week deputy Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff and Stephane Dion were both in Montreal independently fundraising for their separate campaign debts - the former asking C$1,000, and the latter C$100 per attendee. End Note). -------------- Key Election Issues, Whenever -------------- ¶12. (SBU) Whenever the next federal election is held, different issues will come to the fore in each region of Canada. The economy will likely be the highest priority issue for Canadians in Atlantic Canada (economic and resource development); Quebec and Ontario (manufacturing slow-down); and Alberta and British Columbia (maintaining economic growth). Crime is a key election issue for Manitobans and British Columbians. Environmental issues are important to Quebecers, Ontarians, Manitobans, and British Columbians. Social issues are important in Alberta (health, education, and affordable housing),Quebec (health, education, and immigration),and the Atlantic provinces (out-migration). ¶13. (SBU) Canadians seem to be universally fascinated with the U.S. Presidential election, with some Canadian political activists musing to us about how they would like to "volunteer" to work on a particular U.S. presidential campaign. Many of our interlocutors across the country quickly change the subject from the prospects for a Canadian federal election to what is happening in the U.S. Presidential election. We believe Canadians would by and large prefer to watch the U.S. election through to its conclusion before thinking about heading to their own polls to vote for the next Canadian federal government. ¶14. (SBU) COMMENT: Across Canada, there is little appetite for an early federal election or significant desire for the fall of the Harper government. Among the various key priority issues at the provincial level, it was striking that none of the posts cited border issues or WHTI as a major local concern. This first TORONTO 00000090 003 OF 003 country-wide DVC dialogue among reporting officers from eight Mission Canada posts reflected the wide variety of issues and diversity of provincial government configurations, illustrated the difficulty of generalizing political developments, and underscored the delicate balancing act the federal government faces, especially in a minority status. Canada is an immense country where the gaze of the population is as often focused southward on political and economic developments in the United States -- particularly at this time given the U.S. presidential campaign -- as on issues with east-west resonance across Canada. END COMMENT. NAY