IRAQI AMBASSADOR IN TOKYO EXPRESSES CONCERNS

S E C R E T TOKYO 000682

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/12/2033
TAGS: PREL PGOV IZ JA
SUBJECT: IRAQI AMBASSADOR IN TOKYO EXPRESSES CONCERNS

Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer for reasons 1.6 X1 and X6


1. (S/NF) SUMMARY: Iraqi Ambassador to Tokyo Ghanim
Al-Jumaily is concerned positive developments achieved in
Iraq as a result of the surge may be wasted if progress is
allowed to languish during the period before and after the
U.S. presidential elections. He believes the Iraqi
government is "on auto-pilot" and that Prime Minister Maliki
needs to be given firm direction to consolidate security
gains by creating jobs and economic opportunities. He is
also worried about the prospects for successfully concluding
a U.S. - Iraqi Strategic Agreement and warns that the people
both in Washington and Baghdad who are opposed to such an
agreement have no vision for the future of Iraq. END SUMMARY.

--------------
"A CRITICAL MOMEMENT"
--------------


2. (S/NF) Iraqi Ambassador to Iraq Ghanim Al-Jumaily called
on Ambassador March 12 to share his concerns about the
situation in Iraq. He stressed that this is a critical
moment for the future of Iraq because of the fragile state of
security and the upcoming U.S. presidential election. He
cautioned that no matter who wins the election, everyone must
realize that it will take months for the new administration
to get in place and begin to formulate and act upon its
strategy for Iraq. In addition, this is coming at a time
when the United Nations mandate is coming to an end and the
U.S. and Iraq will be working on establishing a new framework
for our partnership. Concurrently, a new alignment of power
is arising in the region, with Iran, Syria, Lebanon, and the
radical Palestinians emerging as a stronger bloc to challenge
existing balances of power. Iraq is in the process of
deciding who to lean towards, the U.S. and the west, or this
new group. Finally, there is strong resistance in both
Washington and Baghdad from some who do not want to see our
new partnership agreement work, and although they are
opposed, they offer no real alternative vision for the future
of our relationship.

--------------
WHAT MUST BE DONE
--------------


3. (S/NF) Because of all these formidable challenges, it is
more important than ever that we are committed to forging a
strong alliance, continued Ambassador Jumaily. And this
cannot wait until after the election is over. He warned that
the U.S. government will be making a mistake if it thinks the
Iraqi government has the capacity to make an informed
decision on this. Lamenting that the Iraqi government is "on
auto-pilot", he said we cannot leave things up to the Iraqi
government to decide for itself, but must make it very clear
to our friends in Baghdad what it is we want them to do.


4. (S/NF) In Jumaily's view, we need to do two important
things. First, we must realize that the latest attacks in
Baghdad are meant to weaken the U.S. administration in Iraq.
It is critical that we build on the Petreaus strategy and
enhance it, both in Baghdad and throughout the country, to
continue to maintain security. Second, we must push harder
on Maliki to provide better services to build upon the
improved security situation. Although security has been
improved, new jobs and economic opportunities have not been
created to cement these gains. The U.S. government must be
more forceful in its message to Maliki that jobs must be
created to secure the security gains that have been achieved.


5. (S/NF) Jumaily concluded by noting that the Iraqi people
are increasingly beginning to believe there is a chance for
success and the hope of a better future. This attitude did
not exist six months ago. We must not lose momentum while
America chooses a new president, nor can we afford to be
distracted from our goal of forging a strong and positive
partnership relationship for the future. And finally, Maliki
must do more to help secure the gains made to date. The U.S.
must force him to act more decisively.

SCHIEFFER