IRAQI AMBASSADOR IN TOKYO EXPRESSES CONCERNS

S E C R E T TOKYO 000682 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/12/2033 TAGS: PREL PGOV IZ JA SUBJECT: IRAQI AMBASSADOR IN TOKYO EXPRESSES CONCERNS Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer for reasons 1.6 X1 and X6 ¶1. (S/NF) SUMMARY: Iraqi Ambassador to Tokyo Ghanim Al-Jumaily is concerned positive developments achieved in Iraq as a result of the surge may be wasted if progress is allowed to languish during the period before and after the U.S. presidential elections. He believes the Iraqi government is "on auto-pilot" and that Prime Minister Maliki needs to be given firm direction to consolidate security gains by creating jobs and economic opportunities. He is also worried about the prospects for successfully concluding a U.S. - Iraqi Strategic Agreement and warns that the people both in Washington and Baghdad who are opposed to such an agreement have no vision for the future of Iraq. END SUMMARY. -------------- "A CRITICAL MOMEMENT" -------------- ¶2. (S/NF) Iraqi Ambassador to Iraq Ghanim Al-Jumaily called on Ambassador March 12 to share his concerns about the situation in Iraq. He stressed that this is a critical moment for the future of Iraq because of the fragile state of security and the upcoming U.S. presidential election. He cautioned that no matter who wins the election, everyone must realize that it will take months for the new administration to get in place and begin to formulate and act upon its strategy for Iraq. In addition, this is coming at a time when the United Nations mandate is coming to an end and the U.S. and Iraq will be working on establishing a new framework for our partnership. Concurrently, a new alignment of power is arising in the region, with Iran, Syria, Lebanon, and the radical Palestinians emerging as a stronger bloc to challenge existing balances of power. Iraq is in the process of deciding who to lean towards, the U.S. and the west, or this new group. Finally, there is strong resistance in both Washington and Baghdad from some who do not want to see our new partnership agreement work, and although they are opposed, they offer no real alternative vision for the future of our relationship. -------------- WHAT MUST BE DONE -------------- ¶3. (S/NF) Because of all these formidable challenges, it is more important than ever that we are committed to forging a strong alliance, continued Ambassador Jumaily. And this cannot wait until after the election is over. He warned that the U.S. government will be making a mistake if it thinks the Iraqi government has the capacity to make an informed decision on this. Lamenting that the Iraqi government is "on auto-pilot", he said we cannot leave things up to the Iraqi government to decide for itself, but must make it very clear to our friends in Baghdad what it is we want them to do. ¶4. (S/NF) In Jumaily's view, we need to do two important things. First, we must realize that the latest attacks in Baghdad are meant to weaken the U.S. administration in Iraq. It is critical that we build on the Petreaus strategy and enhance it, both in Baghdad and throughout the country, to continue to maintain security. Second, we must push harder on Maliki to provide better services to build upon the improved security situation. Although security has been improved, new jobs and economic opportunities have not been created to cement these gains. The U.S. government must be more forceful in its message to Maliki that jobs must be created to secure the security gains that have been achieved. ¶5. (S/NF) Jumaily concluded by noting that the Iraqi people are increasingly beginning to believe there is a chance for success and the hope of a better future. This attitude did not exist six months ago. We must not lose momentum while America chooses a new president, nor can we afford to be distracted from our goal of forging a strong and positive partnership relationship for the future. And finally, Maliki must do more to help secure the gains made to date. The U.S. must force him to act more decisively. SCHIEFFER