Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08TOKYO592
2008-03-06 02:19:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tokyo
Cable title:
CHINA POLICY-MAKING IN THE FUKUDA CABINET
how-toVZCZCXRO6676 PP RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHGH RUEHPB RUEHVC DE RUEHKO #0592/01 0660219 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 060219Z MAR 08 FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2294 INFO RUCNARF/ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA PRIORITY 8896 RUEHFK/AMCONSUL FUKUOKA PRIORITY 6502 RUEHKSO/AMCONSUL SAPPORO PRIORITY 7106 RUEHOK/AMCONSUL OSAKA KOBE PRIORITY 0170 RUEHIN/AIT TAIPEI PRIORITY 6924 RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI PRIORITY RHMFISS/USFJ PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TOKYO 000592
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/04/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR CH JA
SUBJECT: CHINA POLICY-MAKING IN THE FUKUDA CABINET
TOKYO 00000592 001.2 OF 003
Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer per 1.4 (b/d)
Summary
-------
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TOKYO 000592
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/04/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR CH JA
SUBJECT: CHINA POLICY-MAKING IN THE FUKUDA CABINET
TOKYO 00000592 001.2 OF 003
Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer per 1.4 (b/d)
Summary
--------------
1. (C) Under Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda, senior politicians
and opinion-makers seeking to play a leading role in
Japan-China relations have complicated the policy
coordination process. Adding to policy-making difficulties
has been the lack of strong leadership and decisiveness on
the part of the Prime Minister. With Chinese President Hu
Jintao's visit to Japan in the offing, PM Fukuda's
policy-making style and political leadership will face a key
test, particularly over controversial issues such as the East
China Sea natural resources dispute. End Summary.
Political Players and Their Incentives
--------------
2. (C) Five key political players have intensified their
activities to improve and stabilize the relationship with
China, with the goal of becoming a "new leader" in the
Japan-China relationship. The five players are LDP General
Affairs Council Chairman Toshihiro Nikai, former LDP
Secretary General Hidenao Nakagawa, LDP Election Committee
SIPDIS
Chairman Makoto Koga, Foreign Minister Masahiro Koumura, and
Minister for Land, Infrastructure and Transportation, Tetsuzo
Fuyushiba.
3. (C) Japan's diplomatic relationship with China was
normalized under former Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka, and
since then China policy-making has been dominated by Tanaka's
successors: former PM Noboru Takeshita, former PM Keizo
Obuchi and former Chief Cabinet Secretary Hiromu Nonaka.
According to an Embassy political section contact, the Tanaka
line's dominance of China policy-making had become difficult
to sustain by the time Nonaka rose to prominence, mainly
because of leadership and societal changes in both countries
and weakened factional power in Japanese politics following
Japan's electoral system change. Today, no single politician
is capable of taking the lead in Japan-China relations. In
the search for his successor, Nonaka hand-picked Nikai, Koga
and Fuyushiba as his "children" to form a team to take the
lead in policy-making towards China.
4. (C) These five politicians are all considered to be
"doves," and each has his own political and personal
interests in strengthening his influence in China
policy-making. Rep. Toshihiro Nikai considers improvement of
Japan's relationships with other Asian countries, especially
China and Vietnam, his lifework. A senior member of the
LDP's "tourism promotion caucus," Nikai has argued strongly
in favor of exporting bullet trains and related technologies
to China and has been exerting his political influence for
active exchanges between the two nations. Last year he
established a new parliamentary league to promote Japan-China
friendship together with former PM Yoshiro Mori and Rep.
Koga. PM Fukuda also is a member of the league.
5. (C) Rep. Hidenao Nakagawa hopes to expand his political
power by becoming a senior China hand. According to an
Embassy media contact, the Chinese first approached Nakagawa
during the Koizumi era to cultivate a contact among those
close to Koizumi in the then-Mori faction (currently
Machimura faction). Nakagawa also is close to former PM
Mori, who is known to be pro-Taiwan, and so Nakagawa was
their natural target.
6. (C) Rep. Makoto Koga is the "don" of the LDP road and
transportation caucus and has promoted a Shinkansen (bullet
train) project in China together with Nikai. Koga, who lost
his father in the Pacific war, was the first politician to
advocate dis-enshrinement of Class A war criminals from the
Yasukuni Shrine. To this end, he has been working to gain
the support of the Japan War Bereaved Association while
serving as its chairman.
7. (C) Foreign Minister Koumura chairs the Japan-China
Parliamentary Friendship League. He is also the leader of a
small faction and wishes to use his role in Japan's China
policy-making as a way to establish himself as a future PM
candidate. He has been very active in strengthening
Japan-China relations and, according to an Embassy media
TOKYO 00000592 002.2 OF 003
contact, wishes to become the premier "consultant" on
Japan-China foreign and defense policy matters.
8. (C) Komeito Representative and Minister for Land,
Infrastructure and Transportation Tetsuzo Fuyushiba, who was
born in China during Japan's occupation, is considered the
most active among Komeito members in cultivating ties with
Chinese leaders. The Komeito and its umbrella organization
Soka Gakkai's strong connection to Chinese leaders is well
known since former Komeito Chief Representative Yoshikatsu
Takeiri made a secret mission to China and sent a memo to
former PM Kakuei Tanaka, which apparently convinced Tanaka to
normalize relations with China. Fuyushiba's interest and
engagement in the relationship reflects those of the Komeito
and the Soka Gakkai, said the media contact.
No New Leader, but a Division of Labor
--------------
9. (C) As our media and political contacts agree,
individually, the five politicians are neither serious PM
contenders nor political leaders strong enough to
single-handedly command Japan's China policy-making process.
Rather than one emerging as leader of the field, each of
them, in accordance with his political and other interests,
is focusing on issues within his area of expertise and
working with the others, when necessary, to achieve policy
goals and strengthen the bilateral relationship.
Japan's China Bureaucracy
--------------
10. (C) Included in the policy-making mix are the career MOFA
officials and others who form a semi-permanent China
policy-making bureaucracy. MOFA's China hands - language
experts who have spent several tours in China - and senior
retired diplomats from MOFA's "China School" are charged with
managing the bilateral relationship on a daily basis. Senior
among the China School alums is former Ambassador to China
(and India) Sakutaro Tanino. Although retired, Tanino
continues to play a strong role in China policy-making,
including helping the Prime Minister to draft his recent
speech to Beijing University and schedule a trip to
Confucius' birthplace. Tanino was a classmate of PM Fukuda
in high school, where they both played on the baseball team.
They have remained close and Fukuda relies on Ambassador
Tanino for advice on how to handle China.
Bilateral Improvements Open Door for Senior Politicians
-------------- --------------
11. (C) During Prime Minister Koizumi's tenure, the bilateral
relationship at the top level was essentially frozen, and as
a result not much movement took place at lower levels of
government, including both in the bureaucracy and among Diet
members. The "China School" diplomats at the Foreign
Ministry opposed Koizumi's trips to the Yasukuni Shrine and
were derided as disloyal by Koizumi's senior policy aide Isao
Iijima. Japan-China relations began thawing under Prime
Minister Abe and Vice Foreign Minister Shotaro Yachi. Under
Prime Minister Fukuda, who is known for his strong emphasis
on bettering Japan's relationship with China and other East
Asian countries, and who has nurtured long-standing
relationships with Chinese leaders, bilateral relations are
proceeding smoothly. This has given senior politicians
interested in playing a leadership role in China policy the
opening to try to exercise their influence.
Smooth Coordination or Lagging Response?
--------------
12. (C) Fukuda's decision-making style - both for domestic
and foreign policy - is consensus-driven and often reactive
to developing issues. It involves many more players than the
top-down decision-making style of former Prime Minister
Koizumi, and good coordination among government and political
actors is a prerequisite for smooth foreign policy. With the
increased involvement of influential politicians in the China
policy-making process, smooth policy coordination has proved
lacking. For example, the recent poisoned dumpling incident
revealed confusion among the policy actors and has invited
more public criticism of China and of Fukuda's lack of strong
leadership. President Hu Jintao's visit will present another
TOKYO 00000592 003.2 OF 003
opportunity for senior politicians to attempt to exercise
their influence over China policy, and PM Fukuda's
policy-making style and political leadership will face
another test. This is particularly true for controversial,
and still unresolved, issues such as the East China Sea oil
and gas field dispute.
SCHIEFFER
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/04/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR CH JA
SUBJECT: CHINA POLICY-MAKING IN THE FUKUDA CABINET
TOKYO 00000592 001.2 OF 003
Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer per 1.4 (b/d)
Summary
--------------
1. (C) Under Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda, senior politicians
and opinion-makers seeking to play a leading role in
Japan-China relations have complicated the policy
coordination process. Adding to policy-making difficulties
has been the lack of strong leadership and decisiveness on
the part of the Prime Minister. With Chinese President Hu
Jintao's visit to Japan in the offing, PM Fukuda's
policy-making style and political leadership will face a key
test, particularly over controversial issues such as the East
China Sea natural resources dispute. End Summary.
Political Players and Their Incentives
--------------
2. (C) Five key political players have intensified their
activities to improve and stabilize the relationship with
China, with the goal of becoming a "new leader" in the
Japan-China relationship. The five players are LDP General
Affairs Council Chairman Toshihiro Nikai, former LDP
Secretary General Hidenao Nakagawa, LDP Election Committee
SIPDIS
Chairman Makoto Koga, Foreign Minister Masahiro Koumura, and
Minister for Land, Infrastructure and Transportation, Tetsuzo
Fuyushiba.
3. (C) Japan's diplomatic relationship with China was
normalized under former Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka, and
since then China policy-making has been dominated by Tanaka's
successors: former PM Noboru Takeshita, former PM Keizo
Obuchi and former Chief Cabinet Secretary Hiromu Nonaka.
According to an Embassy political section contact, the Tanaka
line's dominance of China policy-making had become difficult
to sustain by the time Nonaka rose to prominence, mainly
because of leadership and societal changes in both countries
and weakened factional power in Japanese politics following
Japan's electoral system change. Today, no single politician
is capable of taking the lead in Japan-China relations. In
the search for his successor, Nonaka hand-picked Nikai, Koga
and Fuyushiba as his "children" to form a team to take the
lead in policy-making towards China.
4. (C) These five politicians are all considered to be
"doves," and each has his own political and personal
interests in strengthening his influence in China
policy-making. Rep. Toshihiro Nikai considers improvement of
Japan's relationships with other Asian countries, especially
China and Vietnam, his lifework. A senior member of the
LDP's "tourism promotion caucus," Nikai has argued strongly
in favor of exporting bullet trains and related technologies
to China and has been exerting his political influence for
active exchanges between the two nations. Last year he
established a new parliamentary league to promote Japan-China
friendship together with former PM Yoshiro Mori and Rep.
Koga. PM Fukuda also is a member of the league.
5. (C) Rep. Hidenao Nakagawa hopes to expand his political
power by becoming a senior China hand. According to an
Embassy media contact, the Chinese first approached Nakagawa
during the Koizumi era to cultivate a contact among those
close to Koizumi in the then-Mori faction (currently
Machimura faction). Nakagawa also is close to former PM
Mori, who is known to be pro-Taiwan, and so Nakagawa was
their natural target.
6. (C) Rep. Makoto Koga is the "don" of the LDP road and
transportation caucus and has promoted a Shinkansen (bullet
train) project in China together with Nikai. Koga, who lost
his father in the Pacific war, was the first politician to
advocate dis-enshrinement of Class A war criminals from the
Yasukuni Shrine. To this end, he has been working to gain
the support of the Japan War Bereaved Association while
serving as its chairman.
7. (C) Foreign Minister Koumura chairs the Japan-China
Parliamentary Friendship League. He is also the leader of a
small faction and wishes to use his role in Japan's China
policy-making as a way to establish himself as a future PM
candidate. He has been very active in strengthening
Japan-China relations and, according to an Embassy media
TOKYO 00000592 002.2 OF 003
contact, wishes to become the premier "consultant" on
Japan-China foreign and defense policy matters.
8. (C) Komeito Representative and Minister for Land,
Infrastructure and Transportation Tetsuzo Fuyushiba, who was
born in China during Japan's occupation, is considered the
most active among Komeito members in cultivating ties with
Chinese leaders. The Komeito and its umbrella organization
Soka Gakkai's strong connection to Chinese leaders is well
known since former Komeito Chief Representative Yoshikatsu
Takeiri made a secret mission to China and sent a memo to
former PM Kakuei Tanaka, which apparently convinced Tanaka to
normalize relations with China. Fuyushiba's interest and
engagement in the relationship reflects those of the Komeito
and the Soka Gakkai, said the media contact.
No New Leader, but a Division of Labor
--------------
9. (C) As our media and political contacts agree,
individually, the five politicians are neither serious PM
contenders nor political leaders strong enough to
single-handedly command Japan's China policy-making process.
Rather than one emerging as leader of the field, each of
them, in accordance with his political and other interests,
is focusing on issues within his area of expertise and
working with the others, when necessary, to achieve policy
goals and strengthen the bilateral relationship.
Japan's China Bureaucracy
--------------
10. (C) Included in the policy-making mix are the career MOFA
officials and others who form a semi-permanent China
policy-making bureaucracy. MOFA's China hands - language
experts who have spent several tours in China - and senior
retired diplomats from MOFA's "China School" are charged with
managing the bilateral relationship on a daily basis. Senior
among the China School alums is former Ambassador to China
(and India) Sakutaro Tanino. Although retired, Tanino
continues to play a strong role in China policy-making,
including helping the Prime Minister to draft his recent
speech to Beijing University and schedule a trip to
Confucius' birthplace. Tanino was a classmate of PM Fukuda
in high school, where they both played on the baseball team.
They have remained close and Fukuda relies on Ambassador
Tanino for advice on how to handle China.
Bilateral Improvements Open Door for Senior Politicians
-------------- --------------
11. (C) During Prime Minister Koizumi's tenure, the bilateral
relationship at the top level was essentially frozen, and as
a result not much movement took place at lower levels of
government, including both in the bureaucracy and among Diet
members. The "China School" diplomats at the Foreign
Ministry opposed Koizumi's trips to the Yasukuni Shrine and
were derided as disloyal by Koizumi's senior policy aide Isao
Iijima. Japan-China relations began thawing under Prime
Minister Abe and Vice Foreign Minister Shotaro Yachi. Under
Prime Minister Fukuda, who is known for his strong emphasis
on bettering Japan's relationship with China and other East
Asian countries, and who has nurtured long-standing
relationships with Chinese leaders, bilateral relations are
proceeding smoothly. This has given senior politicians
interested in playing a leadership role in China policy the
opening to try to exercise their influence.
Smooth Coordination or Lagging Response?
--------------
12. (C) Fukuda's decision-making style - both for domestic
and foreign policy - is consensus-driven and often reactive
to developing issues. It involves many more players than the
top-down decision-making style of former Prime Minister
Koizumi, and good coordination among government and political
actors is a prerequisite for smooth foreign policy. With the
increased involvement of influential politicians in the China
policy-making process, smooth policy coordination has proved
lacking. For example, the recent poisoned dumpling incident
revealed confusion among the policy actors and has invited
more public criticism of China and of Fukuda's lack of strong
leadership. President Hu Jintao's visit will present another
TOKYO 00000592 003.2 OF 003
opportunity for senior politicians to attempt to exercise
their influence over China policy, and PM Fukuda's
policy-making style and political leadership will face
another test. This is particularly true for controversial,
and still unresolved, issues such as the East China Sea oil
and gas field dispute.
SCHIEFFER