NEW CONSERVATIVE GROUP FOCUSING ON PATRIOTISM,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 000570 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/04/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR JA SUBJECT: NEW CONSERVATIVE GROUP FOCUSING ON PATRIOTISM, POST-FUKUDA LDP TOKYO 00000570 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer per 1.4 (b/d) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) The "True Conservative Policy Study Group" was launched late last year by conservative standard bearer Shoichi Nakagawa. With close to 80 members in the Lower and Upper Houses, the group enjoys the support of conservative heavyweights Taro Aso, Takeo Hiranuma and former Prime Minister SHINZO Abe. Rumored to be an attempt to form a conservative pole for political realignment, for now the group is pursuing a moderately conservative political agenda and is seeking to avoid being labeled as ultra-nationalists. Several of the group's members do not deny their support for a future Taro Aso Prime Ministership and, depending on how Prime Minister Fukuda's fortunes go, the group could indeed form a conservative core for attacking Prime Minister Fukuda. End Summary. Rebuilding Japan's Conservatism -------------- ¶2. (C) Over the past month, Embassy Tokyo has met with a number of members of the Diet's "True Conservative Policy Study Group," which was launched late last year by conservative standard bearer and senior LDP politician Shoichi Nakagawa. According to several of its members, the group's general purpose is to "rebuild Japan's conservatism." In Rep. Taku Eto's words, this goal includes the search for policies that "return dignity to Japan." ¶3. (C) Downplaying the significance of the group, Nakagawa himself told Embassy Tokyo's political section that the group is "just a study club" (benkyo-kai). The group's members indicate that they are worried about the "lack of respect" among Japanese for their own nation. They say that they are "not a gathering of right-wing nationalists," and that they are neither pro- nor anti-American. Members tell Embassy Tokyo that they object to the media's characterization of them as ultra-nationalists. Former Prime Minister SHINZO Abe, concerned about such labels, has asked more neutral LDP members, such as former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki and Upper House member Hiroshige Seko, to join the group as moderating influences. The group intends to hold monthly study sessions to discuss priority policy matters, which "require close attention in order to protect Japan's national interests," Seko told Embassy Tokyo. Policy Focus -------------- ¶4. (C) The group's most urgent policy issue, Rep. Kentaro Sonoura told Embassy Tokyo, is to block granting local election voting rights for permanent foreign residents (such as ethnic Koreans). The group is adamantly against giving such rights to non-naturalized foreigners. Rep. Taimei Yamaguchi told Embassy Tokyo that other important policy issues for the group are the further review of both Japan's educational system and the human rights protection bill. ¶5. (C) North Korea and the abductions issue are also important matters for consideration, but Rep. Sonoura denied the possibility that the group will discuss them prominently, noting that "this could cause unnecessary political conflict with the Prime Minister." According to Sonoura, the abduction victims' families do not trust Prime Minister Fukuda, and "the Prime Minister is sensitive about the issue. If our group were to take up the issue, the PM may overreact," Sonoura surmised. Aso Support Group? -------------- ¶6. (C) The group's members have different views on what, if any, role the group could play politically. Initially, the idea for the group was developed by former LDP Secretary General (and opponent to PM Fukuda in the last LDP presidential election) Taro Aso, as well as Rep. Nakagawa. From day one, the group has thus been rumored to be positioning itself as a support group for Rep. Aso in the next PM race. While Rep. Sonoura was ambivalent about this possibility, Reps. Toshio Kojima and Yamaguchi, in separate conversations, did not deny such a role for the group. TOKYO 00000570 002.2 OF 002 Depending on the timing of a possible political realignment, Rep. Kojima went on to say that the group could form the basis of a political movement, and that Nakagawa and Aso "wish to study policies they would implement once in power." Rep. Yamaguchi declared his personal support for "PM Aso." ¶7. (C) Asahi Shimbun senior staff writer Hiroshi Hoshi speculated to Embassy Tokyo that, if PM Fukuda were perceived to be taking overly conciliatory foreign policy lines with Russia, China and North Korea, this might be the trigger for the conservative study group to initiate a campaign to attack PM Fukuda for his "appeasement policies." If that happens, the group is also likely to take up PM Fukuda's "lack of leadership" on domestic and economic issues, as it will help them to avoid being seen as merely right-wing protesters, Hoshi observed. Background: Not a New Seiran-kai -------------- ¶8. (C) Shoichi Nakagawa's father Ichiro (whose seat in the Diet Nakagawa took following his father's suicide in 1983) was a founding member of a strongly conservative right-wing group of Diet members, the Seiran-kai, or "Blue Storm Group " in 1973. Joined by Michio Watanabe and Shintaro Ishihara, 31 young Diet members signed a blood oath to oppose communism and the normalization of Japan's relations with China, among other causes. The True Conservative Policy Study Group's members are less dramatic and less extreme in their public statements than the Seiran-kai members, but they do share the Seiran-kai's strongly patriotic attitudes, support for a stronger military and more autonomous foreign policy and rejection of the verdict of the Tokyo War Crimes Trial that Japan waged a war of aggression. SCHIEFFER