AIT DIRECTOR YOUNG ENGAGES JAPANESE ON TAIWAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 000509 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/25/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV CH TW JA SUBJECT: AIT DIRECTOR YOUNG ENGAGES JAPANESE ON TAIWAN Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffor for reasons 1.4 (b) and ( d). ¶1. (C) Summary: AIT Director Young discussed the upcoming Taiwan presidential election, Japan's ties with China and Taiwan and cross-Strait relations during February 18 meetings with Japanese interlocutors. Japan and the United States have the ability to influence Taiwan and buttress its confidence, and should continue to consult closely with each other on Taiwan issues to help Taiwan maneuver in the face of a more aggressive China, AIT Director explained during separate meetings with MOFA officials and Japan-China Friendship Center Vice President, and former-Ambassador to China, Sakutaro Tanino. MOFA China and Mongolia Division Director Takeo Akiba agreed Japan shares common objectives with the United States on Taiwan, and suggested that the United States and Japan jointly approach both Taipei and Beijing in an effort to encourage cross-Strait dialogue. Japan expects former Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-Jeou to win the Taiwan presidential election, but is prepared to work with whoever wins. Separately, Tanino stated that while history issues no longer impede Japan's efforts to improve ties with China, China's lack of military transparency and suspicion over Japan's Taiwan policy could hamper bilateral ties. End Summary. Taiwan's Presidential Election -------------- ¶2. (C) Former Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-Jeou will likely win Taiwan's late March presidential election, MOFA China and Mongolia Division Director Akiba predicted during a February 18 meeting with visiting American Institute in Taiwan Director Stephen Young. Ma's second trip to Tokyo had paid dividends, as Ma was able to avoid many of the pitfalls associated with his first visit to Tokyo as a presidential candidate, and had reassured Tokyo of his intent to focus on the relationship if elected. Tokyo would be second among Taipei's priorities under a Ma administration, according to Akiba, as Ma's primary emphasis was to be on building closer relations with the United States. Taiwan's presidential election is likely to result in overall improvement in cross-strait relations between Beijing and Taipei, though the departure of Taiwan President Chen Shui-Bian would not fundamentally change Beijing's perceptions of the Taiwan issue and associated regional security concerns, Akiba said. AIT Director underscored the dynamic nature of Taiwan politics and noted it is still early to consider the result of Taiwan's presidential election a foregone conclusion. Referenda on Joining the United Nations -------------- ¶3. (C) Japan and the United States share a common interest in promoting restraint on the part of both Taipei and Beijing, Akiba continued. Japan's choice of language on the referenda should be seen as a complementary, but alternative means of promoting the same objective, he asserted. Japan could not be too harsh with Taiwan, and needed to make its opposition to the referenda on joining the United Nations clear without causing Taiwan to lose face, and without appearing to support one political party over another. Akiba was quick to agree that Taipei would be well served by focusing more of its attention on improving its economy, without assuming political positions certain to generate conflict with Beijing. Akiba raised U.S. policy on visits to Taiwan by government officials, and asserted Japan's approach is stricter when it comes to limiting visits from senior economic and trade officials. Confidence-Building Measures -------------- ¶4. (C) A brief discussion of China's proposed introduction of a commercial air route along the Taiwan Strait centerline provided an opportunity for AIT Director to emphasize the value of confidence-building measures (CBM) for both Beijing and Taipei. Tokyo supports CBMs between Beijing and Taipei, and Akiba suggested jointly approaching Taipei to move in this direction. This would provide a means of ensuring continuity of our message toward Taiwan and would place greater weight behind a proposal, he explained. Akiba raised the possibility of jointly approaching first the Taiwan authorities and then the government in Beijing to call for greater dialogue and CBMs. Young replied that continuity of our respective messages is important, and noted he would convey Akiba's proposal to Washington, but cautioned that Beijing would most certainly respond sharply to anything that they perceived to hint at trilateral security cooperation between Tokyo, Washington and Taipei. TOKYO 00000509 002 OF 002 Outlook for Taiwan Post-Election -------------- ¶5. (C) Akiba and Young discussed the political outlook for Taiwan following the March presidential election, the possibility for political transformation in China, opportunities for Taiwan to create more moderate, balanced relations with Beijing, and prospects for Taiwan's more active participation in international organizations that do not require statehood. Akiba expressed mild doubts about China's progress with respect to transition to democracy, as well as interest in observing the degree to which future Hong Kong elections will be free, fair, and outside of the direct influence of Beijing. Akiba also noted that Tokyo had yet to make a decision about who would be sent to attend the inauguration of Taiwan's next President. Beijing's Efforts to Influence Japan's Taiwan Policy -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) Differences over historical issues are no longer an obstacle to improved relations and have become "pass," Japan-China Friendship Center Vice President, and former-Ambassador to China, Sakutaro Tanino, stated in a separate meeting with AIT Director. During the Koizumi administration, history issues were always at the front of Japan's discussions with China, but former Prime Minister Abe and Prime Minister Fukuda have worked to keep history issues from being a barrier to improved relations. ¶7. (C) China's lack of military transparency and Beijing's continued suspicion over Japan's Taiwan policy, however, still threaten to impede ties, continued Tanino. Chinese Ambassador to Japan Cui Tiankai will ask Prime Minister Fukuda to make a clear statement that Japan does not have "territorial ambitions" toward Taiwan. Beijing is attempting to constrain Japan's Taiwan policy by pushing for a fourth joint communiqu when President Hu Jintao visits Japan in April. If China continues to insist on the additional communiqu, Japan needs to respond by linking it to Beijing supporting Japan's clear entry into the United Nations Security Council, which is something China will never agree to, Tanino emphasized. Rather than trying to constrain Japan's Taiwan policy by pushing for a fourth joint communiqu, Beijing needs to shift gears and focus on winning the hearts and minds of the Taiwan people to achieve its goal of unification. Young agreed that military threats will not help mainland China achieve its goal of unification with Taiwan and noted that using military force would lead to Beijing "winning the battle but losing the war." ¶8. (U) AIT Director Stephen Young has cleared this cable. SCHIEFFER