AIT DIRECTOR YOUNG ENGAGES JAPANESE ON TAIWAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 000509

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/25/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV CH TW JA
SUBJECT: AIT DIRECTOR YOUNG ENGAGES JAPANESE ON TAIWAN


Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffor for reasons 1.4 (b) and (
d).


1. (C) Summary: AIT Director Young discussed the upcoming
Taiwan presidential election, Japan's ties with China and
Taiwan and cross-Strait relations during February 18 meetings
with Japanese interlocutors. Japan and the United States
have the ability to influence Taiwan and buttress its
confidence, and should continue to consult closely with each
other on Taiwan issues to help Taiwan maneuver in the face of
a more aggressive China, AIT Director explained during
separate meetings with MOFA officials and Japan-China
Friendship Center Vice President, and former-Ambassador to
China, Sakutaro Tanino. MOFA China and Mongolia Division
Director Takeo Akiba agreed Japan shares common objectives
with the United States on Taiwan, and suggested that the
United States and Japan jointly approach both Taipei and
Beijing in an effort to encourage cross-Strait dialogue.
Japan expects former Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-Jeou to win the
Taiwan presidential election, but is prepared to work with
whoever wins. Separately, Tanino stated that while history
issues no longer impede Japan's efforts to improve ties with
China, China's lack of military transparency and suspicion
over Japan's Taiwan policy could hamper bilateral ties. End
Summary.

Taiwan's Presidential Election
--------------


2. (C) Former Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-Jeou will likely win
Taiwan's late March presidential election, MOFA China and
Mongolia Division Director Akiba predicted during a February
18 meeting with visiting American Institute in Taiwan
Director Stephen Young. Ma's second trip to Tokyo had paid
dividends, as Ma was able to avoid many of the pitfalls
associated with his first visit to Tokyo as a presidential
candidate, and had reassured Tokyo of his intent to focus on
the relationship if elected. Tokyo would be second among
Taipei's priorities under a Ma administration, according to
Akiba, as Ma's primary emphasis was to be on building closer
relations with the United States. Taiwan's presidential
election is likely to result in overall improvement in
cross-strait relations between Beijing and Taipei, though the
departure of Taiwan President Chen Shui-Bian would not
fundamentally change Beijing's perceptions of the Taiwan
issue and associated regional security concerns, Akiba said.
AIT Director underscored the dynamic nature of Taiwan
politics and noted it is still early to consider the result
of Taiwan's presidential election a foregone conclusion.

Referenda on Joining the United Nations
--------------


3. (C) Japan and the United States share a common interest in
promoting restraint on the part of both Taipei and Beijing,
Akiba continued. Japan's choice of language on the referenda
should be seen as a complementary, but alternative means of
promoting the same objective, he asserted. Japan could not
be too harsh with Taiwan, and needed to make its opposition
to the referenda on joining the United Nations clear without
causing Taiwan to lose face, and without appearing to support
one political party over another. Akiba was quick to agree
that Taipei would be well served by focusing more of its
attention on improving its economy, without assuming
political positions certain to generate conflict with
Beijing. Akiba raised U.S. policy on visits to Taiwan by
government officials, and asserted Japan's approach is
stricter when it comes to limiting visits from senior
economic and trade officials.

Confidence-Building Measures
--------------


4. (C) A brief discussion of China's proposed introduction of
a commercial air route along the Taiwan Strait centerline
provided an opportunity for AIT Director to emphasize the
value of confidence-building measures (CBM) for both Beijing
and Taipei. Tokyo supports CBMs between Beijing and Taipei,
and Akiba suggested jointly approaching Taipei to move in
this direction. This would provide a means of ensuring
continuity of our message toward Taiwan and would place
greater weight behind a proposal, he explained. Akiba raised
the possibility of jointly approaching first the Taiwan
authorities and then the government in Beijing to call for
greater dialogue and CBMs. Young replied that continuity of
our respective messages is important, and noted he would
convey Akiba's proposal to Washington, but cautioned that
Beijing would most certainly respond sharply to anything that
they perceived to hint at trilateral security cooperation
between Tokyo, Washington and Taipei.

TOKYO 00000509 002 OF 002



Outlook for Taiwan Post-Election
--------------


5. (C) Akiba and Young discussed the political outlook for
Taiwan following the March presidential election, the
possibility for political transformation in China,
opportunities for Taiwan to create more moderate, balanced
relations with Beijing, and prospects for Taiwan's more
active participation in international organizations that do
not require statehood. Akiba expressed mild doubts about
China's progress with respect to transition to democracy, as
well as interest in observing the degree to which future Hong
Kong elections will be free, fair, and outside of the direct
influence of Beijing. Akiba also noted that Tokyo had yet to
make a decision about who would be sent to attend the
inauguration of Taiwan's next President.

Beijing's Efforts to Influence Japan's Taiwan Policy
-------------- --------------


6. (C) Differences over historical issues are no longer an
obstacle to improved relations and have become "pass,"
Japan-China Friendship Center Vice President, and
former-Ambassador to China, Sakutaro Tanino, stated in a
separate meeting with AIT Director. During the Koizumi
administration, history issues were always at the front of
Japan's discussions with China, but former Prime Minister Abe
and Prime Minister Fukuda have worked to keep history issues
from being a barrier to improved relations.


7. (C) China's lack of military transparency and Beijing's
continued suspicion over Japan's Taiwan policy, however,
still threaten to impede ties, continued Tanino. Chinese
Ambassador to Japan Cui Tiankai will ask Prime Minister
Fukuda to make a clear statement that Japan does not have
"territorial ambitions" toward Taiwan. Beijing is attempting
to constrain Japan's Taiwan policy by pushing for a fourth
joint communiqu when President Hu Jintao visits Japan in
April. If China continues to insist on the additional
communiqu, Japan needs to respond by linking it to Beijing
supporting Japan's clear entry into the United Nations
Security Council, which is something China will never agree
to, Tanino emphasized. Rather than trying to constrain
Japan's Taiwan policy by pushing for a fourth joint
communiqu, Beijing needs to shift gears and focus on winning
the hearts and minds of the Taiwan people to achieve its goal
of unification. Young agreed that military threats will not
help mainland China achieve its goal of unification with
Taiwan and noted that using military force would lead to
Beijing "winning the battle but losing the war."



8. (U) AIT Director Stephen Young has cleared this cable.
SCHIEFFER