DPJ'S MAEHARA POSITIVE ON ALLIANCE, BUT NEGATIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 003387 SIPDIS DOD FOR OSD/APSA SHIVERS, SEDNEY, HILL, BASALLA; PACOM FOR J00, J01, J4, J5; USFJ FOR J00, J01, J4, J5, J7; NSC FOR WILDER/FRASER; JOINT STAFF FOR J5 E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/14/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR MARR JA SUBJECT: DPJ'S MAEHARA POSITIVE ON ALLIANCE, BUT NEGATIVE ON FUTENMA TOKYO 00003387 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer; reasons 1.4 (b/d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Senior DPJ representative and security policy expert Seiji Maehara outlined in a December 10 meeting with Embassy Tokyo his thoughts on the U.S.-Japan alliance, realignment, and the potential impact of a DPJ government on these matters. Maehara affirmed the importance of the U.S.-Japan Alliance, but predicted major policy changes if his party were to take power in the next election. These policy shifts would include a cessation of the Maritime Self Defense Force refueling mission in the Indian Ocean, and a reopening of the realignment agreement. Maehara also expressed concern about the possibility of former Socialist and current DPJ ""shadow foreign minister"" Hachiro becoming Foreign Minister in a DPJ government, explaining that Japan's foreign and security policy ""would not function"" under such conditions. Maehara also attempted to allay concerns over recent remarks by DPJ leader Ozawa that his party might seek troop reductions in Okinawa. END SUMMARY -------------- U.S.-JAPAN ALLIANCE -------------- ¶2. (C) Maehara said he views the U.S.-Japan Alliance as a ""public asset"" that serves the interests not only of Japan, but also the Asia-Pacific region by providing a peaceful and stable environment. The Alliance is part of the underlying framework of the DPJ's security policy, Maehara explained, and he called for a reaffirmation and strengthening of the Alliance by both countries ahead of the 50th anniversary of the U.S.-Japan security treaty in 2010. Maehara also noted that he is pleased by President-elect Obama's reappointment of Secretary Gates, regarding it as a sign that U.S. security policy will remain fundamentally the same. -------------- DPJ POLICY REVIEW -------------- ¶3. (C) Maehara asserted that were the DPJ to come to power, it would review two major areas of Japan's security policy: the Marine Self Defense Force refueling mission in the Indian Ocean and base realignment. The DPJ has been opposed to the refueling mission for some time, and would halt the operation if granted the authority. As an alternative, the DPJ would find ways to contribute to stabilization efforts in Afghanistan, specifically Japanese participation in International Security Assistance Force operations and Provincial Reconstruction Teams, to include the dispatch of Self Defense Force members. TOKYO 00003387 002.2 OF 002 -------------- REALIGNMENT -------------- ¶4. (C) The second major policy review under a DPJ government would be the 2006 roadmap, particularly the agreements on the Futenma Replacement Facility (FRF) and the relocation of U.S. Marines from Okinawa to Guam. Maehara argued that 12 years have passed since both governments agreed to the Futenma relocation under the Special Action Committee on Okinawa, yet the Japanese government remains unable to start construction. The DPJ would, while carrying out close consultations with the United States, look for another way to relocate Futenma. One possibility would be to close Futenma and relocate Marines not to Guam, but to Camp Schwab and other facilities in both Okinawa and mainland Japan. Maehara added that his party would respect the basic thinking that went into the realignment agreement, but that any solution must be acceptable to the people of Okinawa. Referring to the relocation of the Carrier Air Wing from Atsugi to Iwakuni, Maehara said that he believes that the plan makes sense, despite opposition from some members of the DPJ, and he urged the United States Government and the government of Japan to go forward with the planned relocation. -------------- INTERNAL DPJ POLITICS -------------- ¶5. (C) Maehara expressed concern about some members of his party, commenting that if DPJ President Ozawa were to appoint current DPJ ""shadow foreign minister"" Yoshio Hachiro -- a former member of the Japan Socialist Party -- as Foreign Minister, Japan's foreign policy and security policy ""would not function."" Also, Maehara downplayed the significance of Ozawa's recent remarks that the DPJ might consider seeking a reduction of U.S. forces in Okinawa, adding that Ozawa was, in effect, playing to the Okinawan home audiences with his remarks, ""not unlike other politicians who visit Okinawa."" SCHIEFFER