DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 12/10/08

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 08 TOKYO 003357 SIPDIS DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 12/10/08 INDEX: (1) Age of crisis: Gist of keynote speech by Yukio Okamoto, foreign affairs commentator (Yomiuri) (2) LDP's reform-oriented inclination dwindling (Asahi) (3) FA-18 training to be continued (Okinawa Times) (4) Prime Minister Taro Aso delivered dumb speech in DPJ President Ichiro Ozawa's home district (Shukan Gendai) (5) TOP HEADLINES (6) EDITORIALS (7) Prime Minister's schedule, December 9 ARTICLES: (1) Age of crisis: Gist of keynote speech by Yukio Okamoto, foreign affairs commentator YOMIURI (Page 13) (Full) December 10, 2008 For many countries, this was an extraordinarily bad year, I think. As the worst events of this year, the Russia-Georgia dispute, rampant piracy, and the terrorist attacks in Mumbai can be cited in the security area, and the steep rise in oil prices and the global financial crisis triggered by Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy can be listed in the economic area. The world has fractured with the collapse of the cold-war structure, and moves toward bloc formation have accelerated. This trend can be symbolized by the 27 countries that joined the European Union (EU) and by the expansion of members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). But such moves resulted in a clash of interests between Russia and former western countries over Georgia. The Ukraine lies ahead as another potential problem. Ukraine was the heart of the economy of the Soviet Union. If the U.S. strongly urges it to join NATO, global security will inevitably be affected seriously. President-elect Barack Obama's pledge to "cooperate with Russia in areas that need cooperation" has left the possibility of a dialogue, so this pledge merits appreciation, in this sense. Now that oil prices have begun to decline, it would be a good opportunity for Japan to discuss matters with Russia. Japan-U.S. cooperation is the bedrock of Japan's diplomacy, but Japan has not created its own principle paradigm. What kind of nation does Japan want to be? If Japan continues to just set aside troublesome tasks, Japan will never be trusted by other countries. In the security area, in particular, since Japan did not bring closure to its war, many people now believe that staying away from war or weapons is a sort of contribution to peace. For them, using weapons is evil in any case. Saying their assertion came out of respect for life sounds good, but the approach Japan took in the Gulf War while explaining that Japanese people's lives are more valuable than anything in the world ended in failure. TOKYO 00003357 002 OF 008 More than 40 countries have made contributions in Afghanistan. The Maritime Self-Defense Force (MSDF) has supported patrol operations by coalition forces in the Indian Ocean. Narcotics are transported from Afghanistan to Somalia, while weapons are shipped from Somalia to Afghanistan. The patrol operations are aimed at cutting off the transport routes. Recently, however, armed pirates have appeared quite often along the same routes. Many ships connected to Japan have suffered damage, and a large tanker was attacked in April. We must not forget the fact that the crew of the tanker was rescued by a German military ship that had been refueled by the MSDF and was a member of the coalition force. The world has been forming a "guard community," but some in Japan have insisted that the Japanese government should withdraw the MSDF from the Indian Ocean. Is such a stance is proper for Japan? If it is impossible to make a judgment about what is good and bad, Japan may become a rootless nation in the international community. On the bilateral side, it is more important to consider what kind of relations Japan should establish with the U.S. than to predict what policy the incoming Obama administration might take toward Japan. In response to Japan's request, the Reagan administration succeeded in persuading the Soviet Union to disband all its intermediate-range missiles deployed on the east side of the Urals. As shown by this, it is necessary to reconstruct the Japan-U.S. alliance to make it firmer. To that end, Japan should reconsider now how it should contribute to the international community on the security front. (2) LDP's reform-oriented inclination dwindling ASAHI (Page 1) (Full) December 10, 2008 Public spending on economic pump-priming measures and lifetime employment for job security used to be typical of Japan's systems. Most political parties desire to maintain these systems, according to findings from a survey of prospective candidates expected to run in the next election for the House of Representatives. In particular, those who are expected to run from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party have such an inclination. The LDP's reform-oriented inclination in the days of Prime Minister Koizumi has now vanished. After the Aso cabinet's inauguration in September, the Asahi Shimbun and the University of Tokyo's Masaki Taniguchi office conducted a joint survey of about 9,000 prospective candidates and analyzed answers from 735 persons. In 2005, the House of Representatives was dissolved for a general election over the liberalization of state-run postal services. In that election, the LDP shifted to a reform of Japan's time-honored systems. This time around, however, the LDP has tended to backpedal, inclining much more than in the earlier 2003 survey toward maintaining Japan's traditional systems. Nowadays, the LDP has changed its attitude over public spending in particular. In the latest survey, respondents were asked if they thought the government should increase its public spending for the time being on economic pump-priming measures. To this question, affirmative answers-"yes" and "yes to a certain degree"-totaled 77 PERCENT among the LDP's prospective candidates, showing a jump of 60 percentage points from 17 PERCENT in 2005. When asked if jobs should be secured with more government investments in public works projects, affirmative answers accounted for 58 PERCENT among the LDP's prospective candidates, up TOKYO 00003357 003 OF 008 from 42 PERCENT in 2005. Meanwhile, in the case of those who are expected to run from the leading opposition Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto),the proportion of answers in favor of increasing public spending on economic pump-priming measures doubled from 14 PERCENT . Even so, the figure was 31 PERCENT . Among the DPJ's prospective candidates, 42 PERCENT were opposed to the option of making more government investments in public works projects, leveling off from 39 PERCENT in 2005. The DPJ also inclined to maintain Japan's typical systems but maintained a reform-oriented inclination. When it comes to security and foreign policies, the LDP is more hawkish. Asked if Japan should participate in collective self-defense, "yes" accounted for 73 PERCENT among the LDP's prospective candidates, up from 50 PERCENT in 2005. This is conceivably attributable in part to arguments over the right of collective self-defense in the days of the Abe cabinet. Among the DPJ's prospective candidates, the proportion of those in favor of a further defense buildup was 17 PERCENT , showing a decrease from 32 PERCENT in 2005. As seen from these figures, the DPJ has turned dovish. Accordingly, the two parties' respective policy standpoints are now more widely apart than in 2005, making it easy to see the axis of confrontation between the two parties. (3) FA-18 training to be continued OKINAWA TIMES (Top play) (Full) December 10, 2008 In connection with the recent crash of a U.S. Marine Corps FA-18D fighter jet in the suburbs of San Diego, California, the press division of the Marine Corps in Okinawa told the Okinawa Times yesterday that the Marine Corps' aircraft operations are continuing to operate as usual. "We cannot predict how the accident will affect our air troops," a press division officer said. This officer explained that FA-18 fighter jets, which are on a training mission to Kadena Air Base from the Iwakuni base in Yamaguchi Prefecture, will continue their training in Okinawa Prefecture until tomorrow as scheduled. The FA-18, classified into four types from A to D, may have something wrong with the hinge of the ailerons and flaps. The U.S. Navy and Marine Corps therefore began in late October to check about 480 FA-18 fighter jets based in the United States. In November, 10 FA-18s, including two in the United States, were grounded. In response to the FA-18D accident, the Military Base Affairs Division of the Okinawa prefectural government yesterday inquired of a public affairs officer at the headquarters of the Marine Corps in Okinawa about the FA-18's safety. The officer explained, "All the FA-18 fighter jets were checked up before their flights from Iwakuni. Takashi Toyota, a spokesman for the Defense Ministry, told the press yesterday: "We've now made inquiries regarding the U.S. Forces Japan. But they say they're still looking into this matter. So we don't know anything in concrete terms yet." Okinawa Gov. Hirokazu Nakaima said yesterday, "When there is such an TOKYO 00003357 004 OF 008 accident, I have the feeling that I don't want them to fly until we find out (the cause of the accident). But I'd like to abstain from commenting until we have official information." The Marine Corps is currently deploying about 35 planes-including FA-18 and AV-8 Harrier vertical takeoff and landing jets-to Kadena from Iwakuni for joint training conducted with the U.S. Air Force from Dec. 1. The press division took the position that in consideration of operational safety, it cannot reveal the number of FA-18 jets flown from Iwakuni to Okinawa. (4) Prime Minister Taro Aso delivered dumb speech in DPJ President Ichiro Ozawa's home district Shukan Gendai (Full) (Pages 36-37) December 20, 2008 Prime Minister Taro Aso (68) on November 29 traveled to Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) President Ichiro Ozawa's (66) home district in Iwate Prefecture on a stumping tour. He made his first speech at an open-air parking lot at the Aeon Super Center two kilometers away from Tohoku Shinkansen Ichinoseki Station. About 1,000 people were there to hear his speech. Most of them were in their 60's and 70's. There were few people at their working prime or young people. Even when the prime minister appeared, few people applauded. There was no enthusiasm. Wearing a blue polka-dot tie, Aso breezily climbed on top of a campaign car and started his speech: "Please raise your hand if you think I look better in the flesh than my in the picture saying "For a start, I will tackle the economy" in that poster over there?" He all of a sudden asked the audience to raise their hands, if they agreed. However, the audience was bewildered. Aso expected them to reply, "In the flesh." He then would have responded, "Mom, you have good judgment." This is the usual pattern he exchanges conversation with audiences, which he is very good at. However, it did not work this time. Pulling himself together, the prime minister thanked the audience for its support during the LDP presidential campaign. He then touched on the package of economic stimulus measures, while attacking the Ozawa-led DPJ. So far so good. However, he gradually began coming into his own and displayed his ignorance: "General Motors, Ford and Chrysler may go under. The Japanese equivalent of the Big Three -- Toyota, Nissan and Mitsubishi -- might fail." If he wanted to liken Japan's three largest automakers to the Big Three in the U.S., he should have cited Toyota, Honda and Nissan. It was years ago when Honda's share became smaller than Mitsubishi's. If a prime minister like Aso, who lacks such common knowledge, explains the crisis of the global economy, people would just feel uneasy, wondering whether it is all right to have such a person at the top. Prime minister, do you know the difference between the strong yen and the weak yen? Aso's ignorant manner of speaking was out in full blast, as can be seen in his mistaking the strong yen for the weak yen. He said: "The value of the yen has dropped. Sorry, the value of the yen has risen against the dollar." TOKYO 00003357 005 OF 008 He then noted: "Newspapers write only negative things. However, gasoline prices have gone down due to the strong yen, haven't they?" He gradually slipped into a cruder language: "The gasoline price has gone down from 180 yen to 120 yen, which means the price has gone down by one-third. You are enjoying such benefits as the strong yen and cheaper gasoline, aren't you? Am I not correct? " He somehow took an overbearing attitude. At any rate, is the fall in gasoline prices thanks to the strong yen? It should be a matter of common knowledge that gasoline prices have gone down sharply with speculative money withdrawn from the market due to the financial crisis. Furthermore, referring to his proposal for flatly lowering holiday expressway tolls to 1,000 yen, the prime minister noted, "The expressway toll from Tokyo to Osaka costs 30,000 yen. It's very expensive." The Tomei expressway toll from Tokyo to Osaka is, in fact, about 10,000 yen for a passenger car. He does not know the correct toll, presumably because he has not paid the toll himself. It is no wonder, as he once said that a cup noodle costs 400 yen. Such a person cannot realize the rigor of people's lives. Touting his cash benefit plan, he said: "What do you think brings the most benefit? We have conducted research and found that it was traditional New Year dishes. Stores are unusually inundated with reservations for expensive dishes." We have not heard that New Year dishes are selling well because of the distribution of cash benefits, which has yet to be decided in the Diet. A person in charge of public relations at Seibu Department Store ruled out Aso's statement: "It is true that the sales of New Year dishes have increased 5 PERCENT , compared with the previous year, but that is not due to the impact of the cash benefit. The increase is presumably because more people will spend New Year holidays with their family at home." Keio Department Store also made a similar reply. A public relations officer at the Japan Department Store Association noted with a forced smile: "It would be difficult to find any connection between cash benefits and New Year dishes (laughs). I hope the prime minister will quickly take a policy that will shore up consumer mind." To begin with, those who are really in need of flat-sum cash benefits have no room for ordering expensive New Year dishes. This is how things always go with Aso. There is no way of bridging the gap between Prime Minister Aso and people. "I will not quit, even if support ratings for my cabinet fall to 5 PERCENT " The prime minister then made trips to the Iwate No. 4 Constituency, Ozawa's home constituency, and returned to Tokyo the same day. In reality, his footing is unsteady even before he goes into battle against the Ozawa-led DPJ. Opposition to key issues, including the reallocation of tax revenues for road construction, the sale of government-held postal shares and a revision to the basic policy TOKYO 00003357 006 OF 008 guidelines on economic and fiscal management and structural reforms, is mounting within the LDP. On November 26, 15 LDP members, including former State Minister for Financial Services and Administrative Reform Yoshimi Watanabe and former Chief Cabinet Minister Yasuhisa Shiozaki, held a meeting of the Voluntary Group of Lawmakers Seeking Immediate Policy Realization. Former Secretary General Hidenao Nakagawa reportedly repaired relations with his supposedly political enemy State Minister for Economic and Fiscal Policy Kaoru Yosano on that occasion, playing mah-jongg. On December 2, the members of the Zuirin-Kai, chaired by Acting Secretary General Nobuteru Ishihara, met after a long interval. Yoshimi Watanabe also took part in the meeting. President Ozawa is trying to poke his nose in the LDP, which is becoming unsettled. One senior DPJ official noted: "President Ozawa is trying to encourage LDP members to bolt their party, by pulling out DPJ candidates from constituencies where they, including Shiozaki, for instance, will likely face a difficult election." Diet Affairs Committee Chairman Kenji Yamaoka predicted that some LDP members would secede from their party around the year's end." Ozawa in early October secretly met at a Japanese restaurant with LDP member Koichi Kato and former Secretary General Taku Yamasaki through Acting Chairman Shizuka Kamei of the People's New Party (PNP). Kamei reportedly proposed, "How about a Prime Minister Kato?" After the party head talks on November 28, Ozawa dined with Secretary General Hatoyama, New Party Japan Representative Yasuo Tanaka and others at a sushi restaurant in Tokyo. Ozawa during the meal proposed forming an ultra-grand coalition election control cabinet joined by all parties. Behind this initiative are presumably Yosano and Tsuneo Watanabe, chairman of the Yomiuri Shimbun Group Head Office -- both are close to Ozawa. Prime Minister Aso is reportedly going around saying arrogantly, "I will not step down, even if public support ratings for my cabinet slip to 5 PERCENT ." One senior New Komeito official is alarmed about Aso's move, saying: "The prime minister is a naughty boy. If everybody thinks that there will be no general election, he then wants to hold an election. There could be a Lower House dissolution at Christmas." Political commentator Hisayuki Miyake noted, "After all, the LDP has no other choice but to contest the next election with the Aso cabinet. If the DPJ adopts a hard-line policy, it would have to resort to the 60-day rule. It is impossible to dissolve the Lower House between April and May. The only possibility would be a dissolution at the outset of the regular Diet session. Chances are high that if the Diet is dissolved, a DPJ administration will come into existence. A major reorganization of political circles will then begin." Does he mean that we will soon become unable to hear Aso's characteristic way of speaking? (5) TOP HEADLINES Asahi, Mainichi, Yomiuri, Sankei and Tokyo Shimbun: Sony to cut 16,000 jobs, shut down 10 PERCENT of plants worldwide TOKYO 00003357 007 OF 008 Nikkei: Toshiba, Daiichi-Sankyo, Nittsu and other major firms see difficulties raising funds in market, shifting to bank borrowing Akahata: MHLW informs regional labor bureaus to guide firms not to dismiss regular workers (6) EDITORIALS Asahi: (1) TIMSS (Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study) survey: Classes must be attractive (2) Decentralization requires solid politics Mainichi: (1) Swift uniform step for uninsured children good news (2) TIMSS survey: Test scores not everything Yomiuri: (1) Increased lending key to slowing bankruptcies (2) TIMSS survey: Children's interest in mathematics and science must be increased Nikkei: (1) Obama-version New Deal reflects sense of crisis (2) Sony's restructuring plan shocking Sankei: (1) Chinese ships' incursion into Japanese territorial waters serious (2) TIMSS survey: Japanese students can do better Tokyo Shimbun: (1) Is Aso administration capable of reorganizing government branch offices? (2) Make mathematics and science fun to study Akahata: (1) 1 trillion yen bank recapitalization plan requires strict guidance and supervision (7) Prime Minister's schedule, December 9 NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) December 10, 2008 08:59 Met in the Diet Building with Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Nikai, Agriculture Minister Ishiba, Foreign Minister Nakasone, Finance Minister Nakagawa, Chief Cabinet Secretary Kawamura, and others. 09:32 Attended a cabinet meeting. Nakagawa stayed behind. 10:04 Met Social Democratic Party President Fukushima and others. 10:43 Met Special Advisor Yamaguchi at the Kantei. TOKYO 00003357 008 OF 008 11:02 Met Nakagawa, Vice Finance Minister Sugimoto, Budget Bureau Director General Tango. Followed by Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Uruma. 12:47 Met former Chief Cabinet Secretary Machimura. 13:28 Met former Finance Minister Omi. Followed by Assistant Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Fukuda and Comprehensive Ocean Policy Office Executive Secretary Oba. 14:00 Met members of the All Japan Ryokan Association, including Chairman Sato. Later met Uruma. 15:10 Met Vice Foreign Minister Yabunaka and Deputy Foreign Minister Sasae. 16:09 Met Russian Presidential Administration Chief Naryshkin. Followed by Environment Minister Saito, Vice Environment Minister Nishio, and Global Environment Bureau Director General Terada. 17:30 Met Lower House member Yaichi Tanigawa. Followed by Kawamura. 18:15 Attended a meeting of the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy. 19:30 Met Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsumoto. 20:23 Attended a meeting of his supporters' group at the Hotel Seiyo Ginza. 22:35 Returned to his private residence in Kamiyama-cho. SCHIEFFER