KOMEITO STILL STANDING BY ASO AND LDP

C O N F I D E N T I A L TOKYO 003335

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR JA
SUBJECT: KOMEITO STILL STANDING BY ASO AND LDP

REF: TOKYO 3301

Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer per 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: The Komeito is sticking with its ruling
coalition partner even as voices from within the Liberal
Democratic Party (LDP) are increasingly critical of Prime
Minister Aso's leadership and calling for his ouster, senior
Komeito politician Yoshio Urushibara told EMBASSY Tokyo. The
ruling coalition has no choice but to hold a general election
-- likely next April or May -- under PM Aso, as yet another
change in leadership would alienate the public and surely
invite defeat. In the event that the Komeito becomes an
opposition party, it would not join hands with the Democratic
Party of Japan in its current form, Urushibara said. That
said, the Komeito would be open to working with whatever new
force emerges from a possible post-election political
realignment. End Summary.


2. (C) The Komeito -- the Liberal Democratic Party's ruling
coalition partner -- "is very frustrated" with the LDP's
internal battles and the increasingly public talk of
jettisoning Prime Minister Taro Aso in favor of a more
popular leader (reftel),Komeito Diet Affairs Chairman Yoshio
Urushibara told Political Section Deputy December 5. While
Komeito is trying to support Prime Minister Aso for the sake
of the coalition, LDP members are nearly in open revolt. If
the LDP were to change the PM simply for the sake of
strengthening its position going into an election, it would
have the opposite effect: the Japanese people would not
accept yet another PM, and an election under those
circumstances would "spell the end of the coalition and the
LDP," Urushibara predicted. The coalition thus has no choice
but to fight the next election under Aso. Urushibara was
confident, however, that his own party's 31 seats would be
secure under any circumstances.


3. (C) Urushibara predicted that Aso would dissolve the Diet
and call a general election after the passage of the budget
and budget-related bills next spring. Specifically, the PM
could dissolve the Lower House towards the end of April or
right after Golden Week (early May 2009),and an election
could be held at the end of May. Urushibara predicted tough
going for Aso and the LDP: "there is little the PM can do to
turn his fortunes around." Despite rumors to the contrary,
senior LDP lawmakers such as former party Secretary General
Hidenao Nakagawa will not bolt the LDP and form a new party
or grouping before the next election. That said, "after the
coalition parties lose," it is possible that a number of
members will take steps that are part of a larger political
realignment, Urushibara said.


4. (C) Further on the subject of realignment, Komeito --
"even if we become an opposition party" -- will not form a
coalition with the opposition Democratic Party of Japan
(DPJ),Urushibara continued. "If the Komeito joined hands
with the DPJ in its current form, I would quit," Urushibara
said. However, if there is some form of political
realignment and both the LDP and DPJ split, the Komeito may
consider joining whatever new force emerges, he said.


5. (C) The ruling coalition aims to start the ordinary Diet
session on January 5, 2009, Urushibara said. The opposition
will certainly work against passage of the second
supplementary budget, the FY09 budget, and other budget
related bills. The coalition will have to use its 2/3
majority in the Lower House to pass the budget's implementing
legislation, but the public will not look favorably upon the
coalition's "forcible passage" of these bills. The upcoming
Diet session will be very tough for the coalition, Urushibara
predicted.
SCHIEFFER