KOMEITO STILL STANDING BY ASO AND LDP

C O N F I D E N T I A L TOKYO 003335 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR JA SUBJECT: KOMEITO STILL STANDING BY ASO AND LDP REF: TOKYO 3301 Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer per 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The Komeito is sticking with its ruling coalition partner even as voices from within the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) are increasingly critical of Prime Minister Aso's leadership and calling for his ouster, senior Komeito politician Yoshio Urushibara told Embassy Tokyo. The ruling coalition has no choice but to hold a general election -- likely next April or May -- under PM Aso, as yet another change in leadership would alienate the public and surely invite defeat. In the event that the Komeito becomes an opposition party, it would not join hands with the Democratic Party of Japan in its current form, Urushibara said. That said, the Komeito would be open to working with whatever new force emerges from a possible post-election political realignment. End Summary. ¶2. (C) The Komeito -- the Liberal Democratic Party's ruling coalition partner -- "is very frustrated" with the LDP's internal battles and the increasingly public talk of jettisoning Prime Minister Taro Aso in favor of a more popular leader (reftel),Komeito Diet Affairs Chairman Yoshio Urushibara told Political Section Deputy December 5. While Komeito is trying to support Prime Minister Aso for the sake of the coalition, LDP members are nearly in open revolt. If the LDP were to change the PM simply for the sake of strengthening its position going into an election, it would have the opposite effect: the Japanese people would not accept yet another PM, and an election under those circumstances would "spell the end of the coalition and the LDP," Urushibara predicted. The coalition thus has no choice but to fight the next election under Aso. Urushibara was confident, however, that his own party's 31 seats would be secure under any circumstances. ¶3. (C) Urushibara predicted that Aso would dissolve the Diet and call a general election after the passage of the budget and budget-related bills next spring. Specifically, the PM could dissolve the Lower House towards the end of April or right after Golden Week (early May 2009),and an election could be held at the end of May. Urushibara predicted tough going for Aso and the LDP: "there is little the PM can do to turn his fortunes around." Despite rumors to the contrary, senior LDP lawmakers such as former party Secretary General Hidenao Nakagawa will not bolt the LDP and form a new party or grouping before the next election. That said, "after the coalition parties lose," it is possible that a number of members will take steps that are part of a larger political realignment, Urushibara said. ¶4. (C) Further on the subject of realignment, Komeito -- "even if we become an opposition party" -- will not form a coalition with the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ),Urushibara continued. "If the Komeito joined hands with the DPJ in its current form, I would quit," Urushibara said. However, if there is some form of political realignment and both the LDP and DPJ split, the Komeito may consider joining whatever new force emerges, he said. ¶5. (C) The ruling coalition aims to start the ordinary Diet session on January 5, 2009, Urushibara said. The opposition will certainly work against passage of the second supplementary budget, the FY09 budget, and other budget related bills. The coalition will have to use its 2/3 majority in the Lower House to pass the budget's implementing legislation, but the public will not look favorably upon the coalition's "forcible passage" of these bills. The upcoming Diet session will be very tough for the coalition, Urushibara predicted. SCHIEFFER