ASO'S SUPPORT FALLS; ANTI-ASO MOVES INSIDE LDP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 003301

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2018
TAGS: PGOV ECON PREL JA
SUBJECT: ASO'S SUPPORT FALLS; ANTI-ASO MOVES INSIDE LDP

Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer, reasons 1.4(b),(d).


1. (C) Summary: Support for Prime Minister Taro Aso is in
freefall, based on the results of the latest opinion polls.
Verbal gaffes, policy miscues, a perceived inability to deal
with the global economic crisis, and growing discontent
within his own party have called Aso's leadership into
question. Media reports are focusing on the growing
"anti-Aso" movement within the LDP. A contact within the
senior LDP ranks has even told the EMBASSY that losing the
next election and becoming the opposition party may be the
best thing for the LDP. End summary.


2. (C) Support for the Aso Cabinet has nose-dived over the
past month, with current support levels in the upper 20s to
low 30s, and non-support ranging from the upper 50s to the
low 60s, according to two recent polls (detailed polling data
will be reported septel). Most political commentators in
Japan consider anything below 30 percent to be in the danger
zone, where forced resignation becomes a possibility. Worse
still, Aso has lost ground to opposition Democratic Party of
Japan (DPJ) leader Ichiro Ozawa as the more popular choice
for next Prime Minister. As recently as last month, Aso
out-stripped Ozawa by a wide margin in nearly every poll.
Now the two are close to even, receiving about 17 percent
support each as the preferred Prime Minister.


3. (C) A combination of verbal miscues, public skepticism of
Aso's economic plan and the popular image of Aso as a rich,
bar-hopping old-style LDP politico, lowered his approval
ratings in slightly over two months to levels it took nearly
a year for predecessors Abe and Fukuda to reach.


4. (C) Increasing numbers of LDP Diet members, at all levels
of seniority, are turning their backs on Aso. Several
"anti-Aso" movements within the ruling LDP, including one led
by former Administrative Reform Minister Yoshimi Watanabe and
former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki have formed
according to media reports. The Watanabe-Shiozaki group has
attracted two dozen members, and is expected to add another
dozen or so shortly. Disaffected LDP members focus their
criticism on Aso's refusal to submit a second supplementary
budget before the end of the year, and have added their
voices to those of the opposition DPJ in calling for an early
election. A second group, to be led by former LDP Secretary
General Hidenao Nakagawa and former Defense Minister Yuriko
Koike, is expected to be formed on December 5, with the
stated goal of reforming the nation's social security system.
Only a handful of LDP veterans, such as former Prime
Minister Mori, continue to back Aso wholeheartedly.

LDP Leader: Losing Could Be Good!
--------------


5. (C) At this point, a number of LDP members are trying to
put the best face on what will likely be a drubbing for the
ruling coalition in the next election. Although the Prime
Minister is not required to call an election until September
2009, more party members are openly wondering if it is time
to replace Aso with someone who can better lead the LDP and
turn its fortunes around.


6. (C) Agriculture Minister and LDP leader Shigeru Ishiba,
echoing the comments of several other EMBASSY interlocutors,
noted on Monday, December 1 to EMBASSY political officers
that he could not think of anyone to replace Aso at the
moment. Ishiba speculated that if the DPJ won the next
election, the party would split apart along ideological lines
between pro-U.S. Alliance conservatives like Seiji Maehara
and Akihisa Nagashima, and alliance critics on the left like
Katsuya Okada, Naoto Kan and Takahiro Yokomichi. Ishiba said
he hoped a new pro-defense, pro-U.S. Alliance grouping of
young Diet members would emerge in the wake of a DPJ
electoral win and ensuing failure to govern, noting it would
be a "good thing" in this sense for the LDP to lose and spend
time as the opposition.


TOKYO 00003301 002 OF 002


More Gridlock?
--------------


7. (C) Comment: Ishiba's victory-in-defeat theory shows how
pessimistic and dispirited the LDP has become. Most LDP
leaders are resigned to eventual defeat by the DPJ and to
being relegated to being the opposition until a hoped-for,
but uncertain, political realignment takes place. It is an
unfortunate development for Japan that, at the moment the
country faces both an economic crisis and demands for
enhanced national security and defense policies, the
government is paralyzed by political gridlock.
SCHIEFFER