CARRIER AIR WING MOVE DOMINATES IWAKUNI ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 000326 SIPDIS SIPDIS OSD/APSA FOR SHINN/SEDNEY/HILL/BASALLA; USFJ FOR J00/J01/J3/J4/J5 E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/07/2018 TAGS: MARR PGOV PINR PREL JA SUBJECT: CARRIER AIR WING MOVE DOMINATES IWAKUNI ELECTION REF: 07 TOKYO 5680 Classified By: CDA JOSEPH R. DONOVAN, REASONS 1.4(B) & (D). ¶1. (C) Summary: On February 10, Iwakuni voters will choose a new mayor in a contest most media outlets are framing as a referendum on the planned relocation of Carrier Air Wing 5 (CVW-5) from Naval Air Facility (NAF) Atsugi to Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) Iwakuni. Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ)-backed former Iwakuni mayor Katsusuke Ihara opposes the relocation while Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)-supported Iwakuni native Yoshihiko Fukuda supports the wing's move for the economic benefits it would bring to his hometown. Contacts initially predicted an easy win for Ihara, but recent polls indicate a very close race with more than 20 percent of the electorate still undecided. While a victory by Fukuda would most likely make the CVW-5 relocation go more smoothly, the wing's move will continue to proceed regardless of who wins on Sunday. End Summary. -------------- Two Candidates, One Issue -------------- ¶2. (C) Former mayor Ihara most recently won election in 2006, but stepped down in December 2007 to, in his words, take the decision on the carrier air wing relocation "to the people." (Note: The mayor of Iwakuni has no legal authority to block the move of the wing, but can force the Japanese government to alter plans for an off-base USFJ housing area. End note.) Ihara resigned in the wake of the pro-relocation city council's fifth rejection of his request for a bond measure to finance a new city hall. The bond issue became necessary when, as retaliation for Ihara's anti-relocation stance, the Japanese government withheld billions of yen in subsidies for the new city hall (reftel). Ihara, based on the overwhelming results of a referendum in 2006, and on his strong election win later that same year, claims support of Iwakuni citizens in opposing the move of the wing. ¶3. (C) Yoshihiko Fukuda, until recently a Diet member from Yamaguchi prefecture, has the support of the city assembly, as well as local business leaders who reportedly "begged" him to give up his Diet seat to stand in the election. Fukuda is campaigning on a platform of economic improvement, both from promised central government subsidies and the increase in construction and other business activities associated with the move. Fukuda has played up the importance of "cooperation over confrontation" on the relocation during his stump speeches, and promised to "improve the living conditions" in economically depressed Iwakuni. -------------- Current Numbers -------------- ¶4. (C) Despite Ihara's previous election successes and what many had until recently predicted would be an easy win, most recent polls indicate an evenly divided electorate. Some data even suggest that Fukuda, who at 37 is twenty years younger than Ihara and a popular figure with younger Iwakuni residents, is leading by as many as five points. Press reports indicate, however, that more than 20 percent of the electorate has yet to decide whom they will support on Sunday and contacts say that the race at this point is "neck and neck." -------------- Comment -------------- ¶5. (C) Six weeks ago, Embassy and Consulate Fukuoka contacts at both the local and national levels had predicted an easy win for Ihara. It appears that this may no longer be the case. Less than three days in advance of the election, both candidates are running close and the verbal battle and electioneering continues to increase in intensity. A win by Fukuda would likely mean that the process of negotiating some of the details of the relocation would proceed more smoothly. TOKYO 00000326 002 OF 002 Should Ihara return to office with, in his eyes, a heightened political stature and renewed mandate to "block" the relocation, negotiations with the city could well prove to be more challenging. Even a Fukuda win may pose some difficulties, as the LDP candidate has suggested he would seek some adjustments in the housing plan. Japanese government officials have repeatedly underscored in recent public statements, however, that the relocation will proceed regardless of the election's outcome. End comment. ¶6. (U) Consulate Fukuoka contributed to and cleared this message. DONOVAN