ASO STILL UNDECIDED, AS UNCERTAINTY OVER NOVEMBER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TOKYO 002976 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2018 TAGS: PGOV ECON JA SUBJECT: ASO STILL UNDECIDED, AS UNCERTAINTY OVER NOVEMBER 30 ELECTION GROWS REF: TOKYO 2780 Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer, reasons 1.4(b),(d). ¶1. (C) Summary. Embassy contacts from both the ruling and opposition parties remain unanimous that the chances for an election before the end of this year remain no better than 50/50. They are also in agreement that PM Aso has yet to make up his mind on the timing, and is still in the process of weighing the various factors that will go into his final decision, to include: public opinion, growing tensions within his party, the wishes of coalition partner Komeito, the upside potential from possible legislative and diplomatic successes, the downside potential from continued economic turmoil, and the overall state of the opposition. End summary. ¶2. (C) Prime Minister Taro Aso continues to take a wait and see approach to the timing of the next general election, according to Embassy contacts and media reports, but the focus is already beginning to shift away from a late November time frame. Aso himself has said little publicly about the election timing in recent days, although he is reported to have told ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) faction leader Yuji Tsushima on October 23: "The time will come for us to receive the people's verdict. That is not in the distant future." Embassy contacts on both sides of the aisle, however, acknowledge a great deal of uncertainty. State Minister for Economic and Fiscal Planning Kaoru Yosano remarked to the Ambassador recently that the odds for an election being called this year are no better than 50/50. Former opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) President Katsuya Okada told the Embassy October 24 that Aso is "still lost" and trying to calculate the odds. "You don't hold an election unless you think you have some chance of winning." Aso's continuing slide in public opinion polls -- from just over 50 percent in some initial polls to as low as 36 percent one month later -- bolster that argument. The DPJ has out-polled the LDP slightly during that same period, but the public has yet to fully embrace the idea of a DPJ-led administration. If anything, the public is becoming more and more dissatisfied with politics in general, according to recent surveys, and is taking it out on both parties. ¶3. (C) Many political observers have speculated that the electoral prospects for the LDP and coalition partner Komeito will only get worse over time. Tatsuo Fukuda, private secretary to his father, Yasuo Fukuda, told the DCM recently that the former Prime Minister disagreed with voices inside the party calling for an early election simply as a means to cut losses. "There is no sense to calling an election now," he said, "just because things could get worse in the future." Fukuda noted that his father is so convinced that the election will be delayed that he is holding off on election-related activities in his own district in Gunma Prefecture. Other candidates, particularly more junior members faced with the prospect of continuing to spend tens of thousands of dollars each month for an election campaign that may not happen anytime soon, are ratcheting up the pressure on the leadership to make a decision. Administration "insiders" are more inclined to wait, a number of contacts have repeated, hoping to cling to power for as long as possible. Indeed, the prospects for some of the ruling party's biggest names are among the bleakest, according to recent predictions in a number of leading journals, including: Finance Minister Nakagawa; Diet Affairs Chair Oshima; senior faction leaders Machimura, Tsushima, Yamasaki, Koga, and Mori; and a host of other present and former ministers and party executives. ¶4. (C) Embassy contacts and media reports have begun to highlight growing tensions inside the LDP over the timing for the elections. Several major dailies on October 24 quoted Hidenao Nakagawa at a meeting of the Machimura faction urging Aso to dissolve the Lower House quickly, rather than "clinging to political power." LDP Secretary General TOKYO 00002976 002 OF 003 Hiroyuki Hosoda has also gained attention as a proponent of an early election. Pitted against those two are said to be Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa, Administrative Reform Minister Akira Amari, and Election Strategy Vice Chair Yoshihide Suga, who reportedly advised Aso on October 16 to delay the election until prospects for both the economy and the election had improved. Several LDP members have expressed concern to the Embassy that dissolving the Lower House and calling an election campaign in the midst of a global financial crisis could make the ruling coalition appear irresponsible, both domestically and abroad. They note that a second fiscal stimulus package intended to help boost the economy is currently in the works (septel),and caution that it will take time before voters feel any positive impact. The last possible date to dissolve the Lower House for a November 30 election is November 18. The next window of opportunity is widely believed to be late January/early February. ¶5. (C) Junior coalition partner Komeito, on the other hand, remains focused on the earliest possible election date, hoping to avoid potentially embarrassing testimony by former leader Junya Yano on political ties with lay Buddhist group Soka Gakkai. Komeito Diet members and senior Soka Gakkai officials have also told the Embassy that they are concerned about the possibility that the Lower House election could fall closer to next July's Tokyo Municipal Assembly election. Tokyo is the home base for the Soka Gakkai religion, and anything that could jeopardize Komeito's chances of maintaining their power base in the nation's capital represents a red line that the party will not cross. This includes the possibility that the Tokyo election could happen before the national contest, and become a de facto referendum on LDP rule, or that the two contests could be held contemporaneously. Komeito Secretary General Kazuo Kitagawa urged Aso publicly not to wait for improved economic circumstances, telling the press: "We should expect the current situation to last not just briefly, but for a long time." ¶6. (C) Most of the necessary pieces have already fallen into place for a November 30 election date, particularly with regard to the uncharacteristic cooperation of the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). DPJ contacts note that their party has bent over backwards to accommodate passage of a supplementary budget and approval of a new Deputy Governor for the Bank of Japan in recent weeks, and has even offered to vote quickly to reject anti-terror refueling legislation in the Upper House to allow the Lower House to use its two-thirds override to pass the measure into law by the end of October. The bill, which would authorize the resumption of refueling activities in the Indian Ocean in support of Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF),is currently under deliberation in the Upper House. At this point, the bill can no longer be passed by the end of October, since the DPJ has refrained from placing it on the calendar for a committee vote within the requisite time period. DPJ Secretary General Yukio Hatoyama alluding to a possible change in his party's approach to the timing of the measure, noted in a televised appearance on October 23 that Upper House deliberations could be extended if Aso's "caretaker government" failed to carry out an early election. "Aso has not sufficiently answered questions on the refueling record at the Diet, and there are many things that remain to be deliberated," former DPJ leader Okada noted to the Embassy, suggesting that the DPJ remains ready to play hard ball in the Diet. ¶7. (C) An additional concern for the DPJ is the HEALTH of Ozawa, who canceled a meeting with visiting Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on October 23, re-igniting questions about his ability to lead the party through a difficult election campaign. DPJ Lower House member Jun Azumi confided to the Embassy recently that Ozawa will be physically unable to serve as Prime Minister for more than a month or two, if at all. News reports the following day noted that the LDP leadership is paying close attention to Ozawa's HEALTH and TOKYO 00002976 003 OF 003 will factor it in to any decisions on election timing. That said, the main opposition party continues to campaign hard in hopes of an early election, despite its comparatively weak financial base, relative to the LDP. SCHIEFFER