JAPAN TO CALL FOR BINDING TARGETS FOR EMERGING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 002794 SIPDIS STATE FOR IO, G, EAP/J AND OES/EGC - H WATSON, T TALLEY, E FENDLEY, N BARTH, AND C ARTUSIO CEQ FOR JAMES CONNAUGHTON, LANDON VAN DYKE NSC FOR JONATHAN SHRIER USDOC FOR NOAA CLIMATE CHANGE OFFICE - SID THURSTON DOT FOR LINDA LAWSON AND CAMILLE MITTELHOLTZ EPA FOR CHRIS GRUNDLER USDOE FOR S-3 FAA FOR CARL BURLESON PASS TO USAID E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/01/2013 TAGS: SENV KGHG ENRG PREL JA SUBJECT: JAPAN TO CALL FOR BINDING TARGETS FOR EMERGING ECONOMIES AT UNFCCC COP14 IN DECEMBER REF: STATE 67484 TOKYO 00002794 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer for Reasons 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Japan is looking for the more developed emerging economies, e.g., China and India, to accept binding greenhouse gas (GHG) or energy intensity targets. In the proposal Japan sent the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-Term Cooperative Action for the 14th UN Framework Convention on Climate Change's (UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties (COP) meeting in Poznan, Poland in December, the GOJ proposes a new framework to replace the Kyoto Protocol after 2012 that would separate developing countries into those that should be subjected to binding targets, based on their stage of economic development, response capabilities, and shares of GHG emissions, and those that should submit only voluntary national action plans, based on their low emissions. Japan will call for including all OECD members in Annex I countries, a move designed to include newer members such as Korea, Singapore, and Chile that did not have to assume developed country responsibilities in the Kyoto Protocol. The GOJ also calls for Annex I countries to agree to national targets for GHG reduction rates calculated from a pool of base years. Officials from the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) asked for U.S. support in taking a firm stance on developing countries in next year's negotiations. End Summary. ¶2. (C) The GOJ has released its proposal for the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-Term Cooperative Action (AWG-LCA) and plans to urge the points contained in it regarding a post-Kyoto framework at the UNFCCC COP 14 meeting in Poznan, Poland this December. A key point is that Japan prefers to adopt a new protocol to replace Kyoto, but does not rule out the possibility of amending the Kyoto Protocol provided it can "cover all the necessary elements." Ministry of Environment's (MOE) Deputy Director of the Office of International Strategy on Climate Change told econoff any amendments to Kyoto would have to be extensive and address all the main points of Japan's latest proposal. ¶3. (U) Japan,s proposal reiterates that all parties should adopt the long-term goal of achieving at least a 50 percent reduction of global GHG emissions by 2050, with emissions peaking in the next 10 to 20 years. It breaks new ground first of all, however, by differentiating developing countries into two groups: -- Developing countries which are expected to take further mitigation actions, based on their level of economic development, response capabilities, and share of world GHG emissions. This provision is designed to include China, India, and other leading emerging market economies in greenhouse gas cuts. Countries falling into this category would be subject to binding targets for GHG intensity (GHG emissions per unit of output) or energy intensity (energy consumption per unit of output) on both a sectoral and economy-wide basis. Countries in this group would also have to establish national measurement systems for their targets. -- Developing countries whose emissions are low and which are vulnerable to adverse effects of climate change. These countries would be expected to submit voluntary national action plans to the COP for periodic review. ¶4. (U) Another development Japanese officials have long foreshadowed is that, rather than including just those countries whose advanced level of development warranted it in TOKYO 00002794 002.2 OF 002 1990, Japan proposes expanding the list of Annex I countries to include all those whose level of development now enables them to be OECD members, e.g., Chile, Singapore, and Korea. Japan also proposes expanding the Annex I list further to include another other countries that wish to be included. ¶5. (U) The Annex I (developed) countries would continue to be required to achieve their national emissions targets through domestic measures, but with allowances for "flexible mechanisms." Reduction rates would be calculated from a pool of base years, including the latest year for which data is available, rather than a single base year. (Japan has long opposed being required to use 1990 as a base year, arguing this requirement failed to take into account the energy/GHG savings Japan had made from earlier cuts and provided an advantage to Germany and some other developed countries.) The new Japanese proposal suggests national targets begin in 2013 with the end year left undefined. The proposal includes a call for Annex I countries to adopt the Japanese "sectoral approach" to ensure comparability of mitigation efforts with other countries. ¶6. (C) METI's Natural Resources & Energy Policy DG Kazuhiko Hombu had discussed aspects of the GOJ's thinking with Senior Climate Change Negotiator and Special Representative Harlan Watson during a September 26 meeting attended by econoff. Hombu said he expected Japan to take some heat for its firm stance on emerging economies. He said he hoped for strong U.S. involvement in the "real negotiations" to take place next year, tacitly saying the Poznan meeting would be primarily for laying the groundwork for future negotiations. SCHIEFFER