ASO WINS LDP PRESIDENCY; WILL BE ELECTED PM ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 002612 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL JA SUBJECT: ASO WINS LDP PRESIDENCY; WILL BE ELECTED PM ON SEPTEMBER 24 REF: TOKYO 2503 Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer, reasons 1.4(b),(d). ¶1. (C) Summary. Taro Aso overwhelmed four other candidates in the September 22 ruling LDP presidential election, taking 351 of 527 votes. Aso succeeds Prime Minister Fukuda as LDP President effective immediately. He will replace Fukuda as Head of Government and name a new Cabinet on September 24, when he is elected Prime Minister on the strength of his party's majority in the Lower House. Aso, a foreign minister under former Prime Ministers Koizumi and Abe and LDP Secretary General under Fukuda, is a staunch supporter of the U.S.-Japan Alliance, and we anticipate little or no change with respect to Japan's foreign policy approaches to such countries as China, the DPRK, Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan. On the domestic side, Aso has pledged to increase public spending to stimulate the economy. As Prime Minister, he will need to decide quickly the timing for dissolving the Lower House for a snap election. Aso and his new Foreign Minister will travel to UNGA on September 25-26. End summary. ¶2. (C) Ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Secretary General Taro Aso, 68, succeeds Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda as party President, after a one-sided victory over four other candidates in the party presidential election on September ¶22. He will be elected Prime Minister, by virtue of his party's majority in the Lower House, and name a new Cabinet when the fall Diet session opens on September 24. Aso received 351 of the 527 possible votes in the party leadership race, 217 from the 328 LDP Diet members and 134 of the 141 ballots allocated to the 47 LDP prefectural chapters. His next closest competitor, Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Kaoru Yosano, managed just 64. The other three candidates finished as follows: Former Defense Minister Yuriko Koike, 46 votes; former LDP policy chief Nobuteru Ishihara, 36 votes; former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, 21 votes. A minimum of 20 LDP Diet member supporters was required in order to run in the race. Two LDP Diet member votes were declared invalid. Aso had been the front-runner since long before Fukuda announced his intention to step down last month, despite unsuccessful runs in 2006 and 2007, and his lead had only grown since the formal campaign was announced on September 10. This was his fourth try for the top LDP job. ¶3. (C) Many political observers have believed from the start that Aso's election was a foregone conclusion, and that the larger-than-usual range of candidates for an LDP election and their policy discussions were intended to keep the ruling party on the front pages at the expense of the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). When DPJ leader Ichiro Ozawa was "re-elected" unopposed on September 8, LDP leaders seized the opportunity to present the LDP as the party of diverse opinions and openness, according to Embassy contacts. That strategy has largely succeeded, despite a drop-off in interest for the five candidates and their nationwide stumping tour, but it remains to be seen whether the election results will have a positive impact on public support for the LDP. Public opinion polls indicate routinely that Aso is popular among voters, and while only LDP members were eligible to vote in the party presidential election, they are likely to have voted for the candidate they deemed most capable of leading the party to victory in the next election. ¶4. (C) The policy positions debated during the LDP contest are real, and are focused on significant ideological differences over economic and fiscal policy. Aso's promise to deliver an economic stimulus package over the next three years has drawn some criticism for hearkening back to old-style LDP pork barrel politics, but has captured the public's imagination in a way that Yosano's ideas on raising taxes and Koike's references to a continuation of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's structural reforms -- TOKYO 00002612 002 OF 002 blamed by many Japanese for growing economic and regional disparities -- never could during an economic downturn. The problem for Aso now is the timing for introducing his legislative agenda. If the opposition-controlled Upper House decides to oppose proposed supplementary budget legislation containing Aso's economic stimulus package, then the ruling coalition will need to keep the Diet in session from its opening on September 24 until a minimum of 30 days after the budget measure is passed in the Lower House. The conventional wisdom says that the new LDP leader needs to call an election as quickly as possible, in hopes of exploiting his own personal popularity and capitalizing on the attention that has been lavished on the LDP since Fukuda announced his resignation. If he abandons the budget bill to hold an earlier election, however, he risks alienating voters attracted to his promises of economic pork. ¶5. (C) Aso, a nine-term Lower House member representing Fukuoka 8 district, was born in Fukuoka on September 20, 1940 and has a strong political pedigree. The grandson of former Prime Minister Shigeru Yoshida and the son-in-law of former Prime Minister Zenko Suzuki, he is also the brother-in-law of Primce Tomohito, a cousin of the current Emperor. After graduating from Gakushuin University in 1963, Aso worked for approximately 15 years for his family's Aso Cement Company, the last six as President and CEO. During that time, he competed in the 1976 Montreal Olympics. First elected to the Diet in 1979, he has served as Director General of the Economic Planning Agency, State Minister for Economic and Fiscal Planning, Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications, and Foreign Minister. In addition to the Secretary General job, which he has held on two occasions, he has also served as LDP policy chief. The generally conservative, hawkish Aso is both widely liked and widely disliked within the LDP, and is well known for his many verbal gaffes over the years. A strong supporter of the U.S.-Japan Alliance, he is expected to continue the foreign policy course set by his immediate predecessors. ¶6. (C) News reports indicate that Aso is expected to announce later on September 22 the new lineup for the four remaining LDP executive positions. Embassy contacts predict that he will retain current Policy Research Committee Chair Kosuke Hori, General Council Chair Takashi Sasagawa, and Election Strategy Council Chair Makoto Koga in their positions, and appoint Hiroyuki Hosoda to succeed him as Secretary General. SCHIEFFER