JAPANESE MORNING PRESS HIGHLIGHTS 09/10/08

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 09 TOKYO 002476 SIPDIS DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA SUBJECT: JAPANESE MORNING PRESS HIGHLIGHTS 09/10/08 Index: Opinion polls: 1) Labor Ministry poll shows Japanese society under great stress, with 57 PERCENT rating their lives as "hard" or "distressful" (Yomiuri) 2) Face-to-face Mainichi poll finds 23 PERCENT of the public favoring Taro Aso as an appropriate person to be prime minister, but only 7 PERCENT pick Ichiro Ozawa (Mainichi) 3) Mainichi poll: DPJ President Ozawa given low marks by 72 PERCENT of the Japanese public (Mainichi) Election season: 4) LDP presidential race officially starts today, with the economy as the main campaign issue (Mainichi) 5) Yomiuri survey of LDP lawmakers finds 40 PERCENT planning to support Taro Aso in the LDP presidential election (Yomiuri) 6) Expecting Diet dissolution in October, the ruling camp lining its strategic ducks in a row, even asking the opposition for talks on key bills (Nikkei) 7) DPJ altering its political strategy in view of the upcoming election (Mainichi) Policy agenda: 8) Ruling camp putting off tough policy issues until the next prime minister (Asahi) 9) Ruling parties agree on contents of bill extending MSDF refueling in Indian Ocean (Asahi) North Korea problem: 10) Foreign Minister Koumura makes a strong appeal to North Korea on abduction issue to mark that country's 60th anniversary (Yomiuri) 11) DPRK at 60th anniversary marked by failed domestic and foreign policies, stagnation, hunger, social unrest, and possibly a seriously ill dictator (Tokyo Shimbun) Articles: 1) 57 PERCENT feel lives are distressful: gov't poll YOMIURI (Page 2) (Full) September 10, 2008 Over 57 PERCENT of the Japanese public feels their lives are hard or distressful (kurushii),the Yomiuri Shimbun found from a survey of public life conducted in 2007 by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare. The percentage has risen since 2000. This time, it hit an all-time high since the survey started in 1986. The survey was conducted in July 2007 of about 36,000 households, 
and answers were obtained from about 24,000 households. Those feeling badly off totaled 57.2 PERCENT , broken down into "very hard" at 24 PERCENT and "somewhat hard" at 33.2 PERCENT . "Average" accounted for 37.7 PERCENT , with "somewhat easy" at 4.6 PERCENT and "very easy" at only 0.5 PERCENT . The proportion of households feeling badly off was 50.7 PERCENT in ¶2000. It continued increasing in the following surveys and reached 56.3 PERCENT in 2006. Annual income per household (in 2006) was less than 4 million yen for 44 PERCENT but averaged 5,668,000 yen. TOKYO 00002476 002 OF 009 2) Poll: Aso ranks top at 23 PERCENT for prime minister, Ozawa at 7 PERCENT MAINICHI (Page 1) (Full) September 10, 2008 The Mainichi Shimbun conducted a face-to-face public opinion survey across the nation on Sept. 5-7, in which respondents were asked who they thought would be appropriate for prime minister. There are now five candidates running in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election. Among them, LDP Secretary General Taro Aso scored 23 PERCENT , followed by former Defense Minister Yuriko Koike and former LDP Policy Research Council Chairman Nobuteru Ishihara respectively at 4 PERCENT , and Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Kaoru Yosano and former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba respectively at 1 PERCENT . Another question asked respondents to pick a free choice with no names given. Among others, former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and Ichiro Ozawa, president of the leading opposition Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto) ranked second to Aso, both marking 7 PERCENT . Among LDP supporters, Aso topped all others at 38 PERCENT , with Koizumi at 8 PERCENT and Koike at 5 PERCENT . Aso also ranked top among those who support the New Komeito, which is the LDP's coalition partner, and among those with no particular party affiliation, equally at 23 PERCENT . Ozawa was the best choice at 25 PERCENT among DPJ supporters, and Aso ranked second at 17 PERCENT . In the breakdown of public support for political parties, the LDP stood at 33 PERCENT , with the DPJ garnering 22 PERCENT . The LDP rose 8 percentage points from the last face-to-face poll in September last year. The DPJ was up 1 point. The results of previous polls and the ONE taken this time cannot be simply compared due to different polling methodologies. However, the LDP and the DPJ were both at 24 PERCENT in a telephone-based poll taken in early August. 3) Poll: DPJ's Ozawa unpopular MAINICHI (Page 5) (Full) September 10, 2008 Ichiro Ozawa-the incumbent president of the leading opposition Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto)-was reelected unopposed yesterday for a third term. In a recent poll conducted by the Mainichi Shimbun, however, 72 PERCENT of all respondents answered "no" to a question asking if they appreciated Ozawa. "Yes" accounted for only 22 PERCENT . The figures are almost the same as the public ratings for Prime Minister Fukuda and his cabinet over the past year, implying that if the DPJ comes into office after the next election for the House of Representatives and Ozawa becomes prime minister, he could be troubled with low public ratings as Fukuda was. Noticeably, negative answers accounted for 39 PERCENT even among DPJ supporters. Affirmative answers accounted for 57 PERCENT and outnumbered negative ones. However, the figures show that the public ratings for the DPJ and for its leader are not necessarily TOKYO 00002476 003 OF 009 coincident. 4) Official announcement of LDP presidential election today to kick off battle for general election, with economic policy as main campaign issue MAINICHI (Top Play) (Full) September 10, 2008 The Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election scheduled for Sept. 22 will be officially announced today. Since the election is seen as a prelude to the next House of Representatives election, which is likely to be held on Nov. 9, there may be a move toward political realignment. The Democratic Party of Japan, in which President Ozawa has won a third term without a formal vote, also has already started full-scale preparations for a general election. The official announcement of the LDP presidential race will kick off a political battle that will last until the Lower House election. Five candidates will run in the presidential race. The five are Secretary General Taro Aso, former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, former Defense Minister Yuriko Koike, State Minister in charge of Economic and Fiscal Policy Kaoru Yosano, and former Policy Research Council Chairman Nobuteru Ishihara, who formally announced his candidacy yesterday. The LDP anticipates that the election campaign among the five candidates, larger than the largest-ever four in the 2003 election, will draw public attention. The candidates will deliver street-corner speeches in 17 locations across the nation, with an eye also on the Lower House election. The ruling camp is pushing ahead with coordination to set the prime minister's policy speech for the 29th and a representative interpellation session for Oct.1-3 in the extraordinary Diet session scheduled to open on the 24th. Many people predict that the new prime minister, taking advantage of the momentum from the LDP presidential election, may decide to dissolve the Lower House after the representative interpellation session, but some are calling for dissolution just after the prime minister's policy speech. If the new prime minister takes their calls into consideration, the Lower House will be dissolved only 10 days or so after the new cabinet is launched, something that is unprecedented. In the past, the Lower House was dissolved within 45 days after the first Hatoyama cabinet was inaugurated, the fastest ever. The DPJ is calling for an early dissolution, but the main opposition party is now concerned that an early Lower House election might benefit the LDP. In the presidential race, active debate on economic and fiscal policy is expected. Some ruling party members anticipate that as a result of such debate, momentum may grow for political realignment. The focus of attention is on whether the new prime minister who is elected in the LDP presidential race will be designated prime minister again after the Lower House election expected to be held about two months later. 5) 40 PERCENT of LDP lawmakers likely to vote for Aso in LDP presidential election YOMIURI (Top Play) (Excerpts) TOKYO 00002476 004 OF 009 September 10, 2009 The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will announce today that it will hold a presidential election on Sept. 22. This means that the official campaign for the LDP presidential race will kick off today. A Yomiuri Shimbun survey of LDP lawmakers' voting intentions found that more than 40 percent of the lawmakers (386) would likely vote for Secretary General Taro Aso. The expectation is that LDP presidential candidates -- former Defense Minister Yuriko Koike, 56, a Machimura faction member; Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Kaoru Yosano, 79, who does not belong to any faction; former policy chief Nobuteru Ishihara, 51, a Yamasaki faction member; and former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, 51, a Tsushima faction member -- will actively conduct debate on economic and security policies. According to the results of the survey conducted by the Yomiuri Shimbun, 163 lawmakers or 42 PERCENT of the LDP Diet members have decided as of late last night to vote for Aso. The 163 include: all 20 Aso faction members; all 16 Nikai faction members; about 70 PERCENT of the 28 Ibuki faction members; a majority of the 15 Koumura faction members; about 40 PERCENT of the 88 Machimura faction members and the 62 Koga faction members; and some members from the Tsushima n and the Yamasaki factions. The Tsushima faction has 70 members; and the Yamasaki faction, 41. Less than ONE percent lawmakers have decided to vote for Koike, Ishihara, Ishiba and Yosano. Koike gained support from some Machimura faction members and some lawmakers from the policy sturdy group called "New Breeze," which is headed by former Secretary General Tsutomu Takebe. Ishihara won support from the Yamasaki faction and some members from the Koga and Machimura factions. Ishiba got support from the Tsushima faction alone. Yosano was backed by some members from the Koga and Machimura factions, as well as some lawmakers with no factional allegiance. However, nearly 40 PERCENT of the LDP lawmakers have yet to decide for whom they will vote. 6) Ruling coalition laying groundwork for possible Lower House dissolution in October NKKEI (Page 2) (Full) September 10, 2008 The ruling parties have begun to take preparatory steps for a possible dissolution of the House of Representatives in October. Yesterday, a day before the start of the official campaign for the Sept. 22 Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election, the ruling coalition held a succession of meetings on bills extending Japan's refueling mission in the Indian Ocean and establishing a consumer affairs agency. The ruling camp on Sept. 12 will ask the opposition bloc to hold policy consultations on such issues as the government-drafted economic stimulus package. The aim is to generate momentum for the next Lower House election by holding discussions with the opposition before the upcoming extraordinary Diet session. The ruling camp's project team on the refueling extension has drafted a bill extending by ONE year the refueling operation. The meeting of policy chiefs decided that the ruling parties would end internal procedures by Sept. 16 regarding how they would respond to the two bills before the cabinet makes a decision on the 19th. TOKYO 00002476 005 OF 009 The ruling coalition has predicted that consultations with the main opposition party Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) will run into difficulties. Speculation has been rife that the DPJ may rupture talks with the ruling coalition due to the possible early Lower House dissolution. If there is an early dissolution of the Lower House, a political vacuum will be unavoidable until the end of the general election. The ruling parties have been motivated to strengthen their internal ties, as well as to fend off criticism for putting on the back-burner a number of issues, by demonstrating their efforts to settle key legislation. 7) DPJ alters election strategy MAINICHI (Page 2) (Excerpts) September 10, 2008 The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) decided yesterday in a meeting of its shadow cabinet to come up with the framework of a manifesto (set of campaign pledges) for the next House of Representatives election on Sept. 21, when President Ichiro Ozawa is formally reelected for his third term. Policy Research Committee Chairman Masayuki Naoshima, who had said that the party would formulate a manifesto on the 21st or later, stressed yesterday to reporters: "Since the situation is imminent, we can't do so after we set our basic policy." The largest opposition party has been also forced to revise the results of its survey on the state of electoral districts, which become materials to choose candidates. A senior party member said: "We have to revise the results of our survey." Ozawa went around several electoral districts in Tokyo yesterday. He visited without advance notice offices of those who have been informally picked DPJ candidates. He stayed in each office just for 10 minutes. Later in the day, Ozawa told Secretary General Yukio Hatoyama: "I want you to hold an executive board meeting, since the election will be held soon." Appearing on an NHK news program last night, Ozawa expressed his concern, saying: "It will not be that easy to defeat the LDP in the Lower House." 8) Global warming left for next administration ASAHI (Page 4) (Full) September 10, 2008 Prime Minister Fukuda attended a meeting of four cabinet ministers in charge of policy to combat global warming and reiterated the need for the ministries to continue to proactively address his proposal to turn Japan into a low-carbon society under the next administration. As its test case, the participants confirmed that the government will introduce an emissions trading system in October on a trial basis. But since there are many difficult problems in forming the system, it is unclear whether things will go smoothly. Chief Cabinet Secretary Machimura stressed in a press conference TOKYO 00002476 006 OF 009 yesterday that the next government will continue efforts to curb global warming in accordance with the action program adopted in a cabinet meeting under the Fukuda cabinet. Machimura said: "That is the government's major policy. No matter who becomes prime minister, Japan will continue to fight global warming." With the aim of playing a leading role in the Hokkaido Toyako Summit, Fukuda came up with the trial introduction of emissions trading as ONE of the key items in the Fukuda Vision initiative released in June. Although industrial circles were calling for caution, Fukuda decided to introduce the system in October and instructed relevant government agencies to start preparations. The Fukuda Vision aims at forming an integrated market that involves cap-and-trade, under which a cap is set on greenhouse gas emissions from large firms and emissions rights are traded, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) in the Kyoto Protocol designed for industrialized countries to assist developing countries in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and the domestic CDM system to be set up by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, under which large domestic companies help small businesses cut emissions. As measures to urge many firms to participate in the cap-and-trade system, the government's study team under the Cabinet Secretariat has considered: (1) letting companies voluntarily join the system to set an emission cap; and (2) setting no penalty even in the case of emissions exceeding the upper limit. However, industrial circles, which are concerned about mandatory curbs, remain cautious about introducing the cap-and-trade system in attaining the targets set in their voluntary plans, while supporting the domestic CDM system, which they think will help companies' energy-conservation efforts. The system therefore might not fully work. 9) Ruling parties agree to submit MSDF bill ASAHI (Page 4) (Full) September 10, 2008 The ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner, the New Komeito, held a meeting of their policy chiefs yesterday, in which they agreed to present a bill amending the new Antiterrorism Special Measures Law to extend the Maritime Self-Defense Force's refueling activities in the Indian Ocean for another year. The government will endorse the legislation in a cabinet meeting on Sept. 16 before Prime Minister Fukuda leaves office and will introduce it to the Diet in its forthcoming extraordinary session. However, it will be difficult to pass the bill during the extraordinary session if Fukuda's successor dissolves the Diet at its outset. The planned legislation extends the antiterror law for ONE year up until Jan. 15, 2009. The MSDF is to continue its current refueling activities in the same area as under the current law. The ruling coalition will call on the leading opposition Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto) and other opposition parties for policy talks. However, the DPJ is unlikely to respond in the run-up to a snap election for the House of Representatives. If the bill does not pass the Diet within this year, the MSDF will again pull out with the law running out. The ruling parties concurred in written form that it is "the most effective and realistic possible option at this point" to TOKYO 00002476 007 OF 009 simply extend the law. 10) Foreign Minister Koumura calls on North Korea to implement agreement on abduction issue, on 60th anniversary of foundation YOMIURI (Page 2) (Full) September 10, 2008 In a press conference yesterday, Foreign Minister Koumura called on North Korea to deliver on the promises it made to the international community on the abductions, nuclear development, and other issues, saying: "We would like to see North Korea play a constructive role as a member of the international community." He made this remark on the occasion of the 60th anniversary of the foundation of North Korea. As its immediate task, Japan needs to have North Korea to start the reinvestigation of the abduction victims as it promised. Japan had anticipated that the North would start the reinvestigation by Foundation Day on Sept. 9, but North Korea has decided to postpone it, taking a wait-and-see attitude toward the next Japanese administration would take. Koumura expressed eagerness to forge ahead with negotiations on the abduction and other issues pending between Japan and North Korea, saying: "If Japan-North Korea relations move forward, our nation and the international community will welcome it." He also indicated that Japan would decide to partially remove or ease sanctions if North Korea implements the reinvestigation, remarking: "Our side will implement what it promised." North Korea in August suspended work to disable its Yongbyon reactor in violation of an agreement reached in the six-party talks. The nation has indicated it will start reassembling the reactor. Foreign Ministry Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau Director General Akitaka Saiki said: "North Korea's move is a strategic ONE (to draw out concessions from the international community). It would not be wise to overreact." He is willing to move bilateral pending issues forward, separating them from the response to the nuclear issue. Kim Jong Il was absent from the 60th anniversary ceremony. Regarding his HEALTH condition, a senior Foreign Ministry official indicated the ministry will carefully collect information, saying: "Although there are rumors that he is ill, we have not heard anything about it." 11) North Korea marks 60th anniversary; Country reaches dead end domestically and diplomatically TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 3) (Abridged slightly) September 10, 2008 Eiji Tsukiyama, Kaname Fukuda, Seoul North Korea marked the 60th anniversary of the country's founding on Sept. 9. In the face of food shortages and other adversities, the country has been maintaining a peculiar system by using the "nuclear card" on the diplomatic front, while advocating "military-first politics" and projecting the image of being a powerful nation. But with the United States having decided to postpone its plan to delist the North as a state sponsor of terrorism, Pyongyang recently seems to have reached an impasse on the diplomatic front. With reports of TOKYO 00002476 008 OF 009 the ill HEALTH of DPRK leader Kim Jong Il, speculation about the selection of his successor may rapidly become a reality. According to Korean Central Television, tens of thousands of people filled the Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang during the massive parade of the people's army that took place on Sept. 9 to commemorate the 60th anniversary of the country's founding, showcasing the nation's rock-solid solidarity both domestically and internationally. General Secretary Kim Jong Il had always observed such parades in the past, but he was not there this year. In sharp contrast to such gaudy commemorative events, the environment surrounding North Korea is severe. The World Food Program (WFP) has pointed out the possibility that 5 million to 6 million people might starve in the worst food crisis since the late 1990s. The Bank of Korea's statistics also show that the North marked negative economic growth in 2007 for the second consecutive year. The North's economy is now 36 times smaller than that of South Korea. In addition to domestic affairs, the country has reached a dead end on the diplomatic front, as well. The country failed to convince the United States to remove it from the U.S. terrorist blacklist as planned, and Japan's pledge to lift its economic sanctions on the North conditioned on its reinvestigation into the fate of the Japanese abductees has slipped away, because of Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda's decision to step down. The South-North dialogue between Seoul and Pyongyang also remains suspended. In January, three newspapers, including the Nodong Sinmun, played up the significance of the 60th anniversary with their joint New Year editorial noting, "Let the anniversary shine as the event commemorating the historic year." But the Nodong Sinmun's Sept. 1 editorial alluded to the harsh reality, noting, "Due to the warlike conditions and circumstances, it is extremely difficult to brighten the 60th anniversary as the victor's grand celebration." The denuclearization process has also stalled due to the North's attempt to restart the Yongbyon nuclear facility. A Six-Party Talks source indicated that there is little hope for progress for the time being, saying: "Now that the United States has put off delisting the North as a state sponsor of terrorism, Pyongyang might have decided to hold talks on the denuclearization issue with the next U.S. administration." North Korean leader Kim Jong Il has set the goal of opening the door to making the country a powerful nation in 2012, the centennial of the birth of his late father, Kim Il Sung. A powerful nation means setting the military as a pillar of revolution and advancing economic construction with its power, according to the Nodong Sinmun. But the path to economic reconstruction seems steep. China, the North's major supporters, is moving closer to South Korea as well. Kim Hyon Jun of the North Korean affairs office of the Korean Institute for National Unification, a think tank affiliated with the South Korean government, pointed out difficulty, saying: "In order to become an economically powerful country, relations with the TOKYO 00002476 009 OF 009 United States, Japan, and South Korea must be improved." Many experts think that the current regime would last until 2012 unless there are special problems. But according to South Korean intelligence authorities, Kim Jong Il had a heart bypass in May ¶2007. Rumor has it that he is suffering from diabetes, as well. Whenever the North Korean leader, now 66, fails to show up at public events for a long period of time, a rumor circulates that he is suffering from ill health. Kim Jong Il's three sons -- Jong Nam, Jong Chol, and Jong Un -- are regarded as potential successors to the North Korean leader. Although an expert indicated that the selection of his successor can wait, Kim Jong Il's HEALTH and his successor issues are drawing much attention due to his failure to attend the 60th anniversary event. ZUMWALT