SCENESETTER FOR SPEAKER PELOSI'S ATTENDANCE AT JAPAN'S G8 SPEAKERS' MEETING, SEPTEMBER 1-3

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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 002303

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

FOR SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE PELOSI FROM AMBASSADOR SCHIEFFER

H PLEASE PASS TO THE SPEAKER'S OFFICE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/20/2018

TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ECON, OREP, JA

SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR SPEAKER PELOSI'S ATTENDANCE AT

JAPAN'S G8 SPEAKERS' MEETING, SEPTEMBER 1-3

Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer for reasons 1.4 b/d.

1. (C) The following is a scenesetter for the visit of

Speaker of the House Pelosi to attend the G8 Speakers'

Meeting.

Begin Text:

Madam Speaker,

Unfortunately I will be in the United States during your

Japan visit. Your attendance at the G8 Speakers' Meeting

provides an opportunity to underline for our Japanese friends

the continued overriding importance the United States

attaches to our relations with Japan.

Japan's domestic political situation is currently marked by

uncertainty. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP)

defeat in the July 2007 Upper House election created a

divided Diet for the first time in over fifty years. The

opposition Democratic Party of Japan's (DPJ) control of the

less powerful but procedurally important Upper House had a

chilling effect on legislation and personnel appointments

during the past year's Diet sessions. The political system

is still groping for a way out of the gridlock.

The uncertainty is likely to continue in the near term,

absent a grand compromise between the parties or a sudden

political realignment. The Upper House cannot compel Prime

Minister Fukuda to call a general election before the Lower

House members' terms end in September 2009. With the

cabinet's approval ratings in the low 20s, many in the LDP

want to hold off an election as long as possible.

Looking to the next election, Prime Minister Fukuda shuffled

his cabinet August 1 and has embarked on a program to "ease

the concerns" of voters. Rising gas and food prices,

stagnating wages, demographic pressures on the pension and

medical systems, discomfort with changes brought on by

globalization, a slow economy that may be slipping into

recession, shifting power relationships in East Asia -- all

have contributed to media reports of popular unease about

where Japan is and where it is heading. These concerns also

r />
touch bilateral affairs. As the United States is Japan's

primary security guarantor and its most important economic

partner, the Japanese are also quite sensitive to changes --

real or perceived -- in U.S. attitudes towards Japan.

Japanese officials closely watch the U.S. election cycle for

clues about how a new administration will conceptualize Asia

policy. Policy professionals scrutinized a series of

articles by presidential candidates in "Foreign Affairs," and

they continue to debate in the media whether a new

administration would prioritize relations with China over

Japan. Expect your Japanese interlocutors to ask your

thoughts on America's role in Asia. They will particularly

be interested in what you think a potential Democratic

administration would say about bilateral security

arrangements, the potential delisting of North Korea as a

state sponsor of terror, North Korean abductions of Japanese

citizens, trade relations, and the prospects for the

Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement.

The reality, of course, is that American foreign policy

toward Japan has been historically bipartisan. We have an

enduring relationship based on mutual strategic interests and

common democratic values. Our alliance with Japan remains

the cornerstone of security in Northeast Asia and is

essential for preserving peace and stability throughout the

region. Our two economies produce more than one-third of

global output, with $747 million in goods and services

TOKYO 00002303 002 OF 002

exchanged daily between our countries, and more than 628,000

U.S. workers employed by affiliates of Japanese companies.

We also have a unique history. Japan likes to point out that

it is the only country in the world to have suffered from an

atomic attack. Speaker Kono chose peace and disarmament as

the theme of the Speakers' Summit, and by locating the

conference in Hiroshima, he wanted to draw attention to

nuclear issues.

You will be the highest ranking U.S. official ever to attend

an official memorial ceremony in Hiroshima. Japanese media

attention is expected to be intense and will likely provoke

the question of whether your participation in the

wreath-laying ceremony at Hiroshima's Peace Park constitutes

an unprecedented U.S. apology for the use of atomic weapons

in 1945.

Beyond the G8 agenda, it would be useful for Speaker Kono to

hear from you about two issues. First, the United States and

other International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) partners

are urging Japan to do much more in Afghanistan -- to fulfill

a security role commensurate with Japan's international

standing. Second, the United States has pressed Japan to

criminalize the simple possession of child pornography. Both

initiatives are vulnerable to the current domestic political

situation, but there should be no question about the need to

address the international threat of terrorism or the

unconscionable scourge of child pornography.

On behalf of the entire U.S. Mission team, let me welcome you

to Japan and offer my wishes for a successful visit. If I

can be of further assistance please let me know.

Sincerely,

Tom Schieffer

End Text.

SCHIEFFER

SCENESETTER FOR SPEAKER PELOSI'S ATTENDANCE AT JAPAN'S G8 SPEAKERS' MEETING, SEPTEMBER 1-3

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