SCENESETTER FOR SPEAKER PELOSI'S ATTENDANCE AT JAPAN'S G8 SPEAKERS' MEETING, SEPTEMBER 1-3

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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 002303

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

FOR SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE PELOSI FROM AMBASSADOR SCHIEFFER
H PLEASE PASS TO THE SPEAKER'S OFFICE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/20/2018
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ECON, OREP, JA
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR SPEAKER PELOSI'S ATTENDANCE AT
JAPAN'S G8 SPEAKERS' MEETING, SEPTEMBER 1-3

Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer for reasons 1.4 b/d.

1. (C) The following is a scenesetter for the visit of
Speaker of the House Pelosi to attend the G8 Speakers'
Meeting.

Begin Text:

Madam Speaker,

Unfortunately I will be in the United States during your
Japan visit. Your attendance at the G8 Speakers' Meeting
provides an opportunity to underline for our Japanese friends
the continued overriding importance the United States
attaches to our relations with Japan.

Japan's domestic political situation is currently marked by
uncertainty. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP)
defeat in the July 2007 Upper House election created a
divided Diet for the first time in over fifty years. The
opposition Democratic Party of Japan's (DPJ) control of the
less powerful but procedurally important Upper House had a
chilling effect on legislation and personnel appointments
during the past year's Diet sessions. The political system
is still groping for a way out of the gridlock.

The uncertainty is likely to continue in the near term,
absent a grand compromise between the parties or a sudden
political realignment. The Upper House cannot compel Prime
Minister Fukuda to call a general election before the Lower
House members' terms end in September 2009. With the
cabinet's approval ratings in the low 20s, many in the LDP
want to hold off an election as long as possible.

Looking to the next election, Prime Minister Fukuda shuffled
his cabinet August 1 and has embarked on a program to "ease
the concerns" of voters. Rising gas and food prices,
stagnating wages, demographic pressures on the pension and
medical systems, discomfort with changes brought on by
globalization, a slow economy that may be slipping into
recession, shifting power relationships in East Asia -- all
have contributed to media reports of popular unease about
where Japan is and where it is heading. These concerns also
touch bilateral affairs. As the United States is Japan's
primary security guarantor and its most important economic
partner, the Japanese are also quite sensitive to changes --
real or perceived -- in U.S. attitudes towards Japan.

Japanese officials closely watch the U.S. election cycle for

r />clues about how a new administration will conceptualize Asia
policy. Policy professionals scrutinized a series of
articles by presidential candidates in "Foreign Affairs," and
they continue to debate in the media whether a new
administration would prioritize relations with China over
Japan. Expect your Japanese interlocutors to ask your
thoughts on America's role in Asia. They will particularly
be interested in what you think a potential Democratic
administration would say about bilateral security
arrangements, the potential delisting of North Korea as a
state sponsor of terror, North Korean abductions of Japanese
citizens, trade relations, and the prospects for the
Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement.

The reality, of course, is that American foreign policy
toward Japan has been historically bipartisan. We have an
enduring relationship based on mutual strategic interests and
common democratic values. Our alliance with Japan remains
the cornerstone of security in Northeast Asia and is
essential for preserving peace and stability throughout the
region. Our two economies produce more than one-third of
global output, with $747 million in goods and services

TOKYO 00002303 002 OF 002

exchanged daily between our countries, and more than 628,000
U.S. workers employed by affiliates of Japanese companies.

We also have a unique history. Japan likes to point out that
it is the only country in the world to have suffered from an
atomic attack. Speaker Kono chose peace and disarmament as
the theme of the Speakers' Summit, and by locating the
conference in Hiroshima, he wanted to draw attention to
nuclear issues.

You will be the highest ranking U.S. official ever to attend
an official memorial ceremony in Hiroshima. Japanese media
attention is expected to be intense and will likely provoke
the question of whether your participation in the
wreath-laying ceremony at Hiroshima's Peace Park constitutes
an unprecedented U.S. apology for the use of atomic weapons
in 1945.

Beyond the G8 agenda, it would be useful for Speaker Kono to
hear from you about two issues. First, the United States and
other International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) partners
are urging Japan to do much more in Afghanistan -- to fulfill
a security role commensurate with Japan's international
standing. Second, the United States has pressed Japan to
criminalize the simple possession of child pornography. Both
initiatives are vulnerable to the current domestic political
situation, but there should be no question about the need to
address the international threat of terrorism or the
unconscionable scourge of child pornography.

On behalf of the entire U.S. Mission team, let me welcome you
to Japan and offer my wishes for a successful visit. If I
can be of further assistance please let me know.

Sincerely,

Tom Schieffer

End Text.

SCHIEFFER

SCENESETTER FOR SPEAKER PELOSI'S ATTENDANCE AT JAPAN'S G8 SPEAKERS' MEETING, SEPTEMBER 1-3

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