AMBASSADOR AND VFM YABUNAKA ON AFGHANISTAN, NORTH

S E C R E T TOKYO 002287

SIPDIS

USTR FOR AUSTR CUTLER
PLEASE PASS TO USDA FOR DUS TERPSTRA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/19/2018
TAGS: PREL MARR MOPS PINR ETRD EAID EAGR RU IN GG
KN, JA
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR AND VFM YABUNAKA ON AFGHANISTAN, NORTH
KOREA, INDIAN NUCLEAR DEAL

Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer per 1.4 (b/d)

Summary
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1. (S) Japan's failure to extend its Indian Ocean refueling
operations in support of OEF would be a shock to the United
States and others in the coalition whose forces are in harm's
way in Afghanistan, and would marginalize Japan
internationally, the Ambassador told Vice Foreign Minister
Yabunaka August 19. The Japanese government recognizes this,
Yabunaka responded, and its game plan is to continue its
efforts to win public and political support for the refueling
extension. On North Korea, Yabunaka outlined recent contacts
with the DPRK, noted that holding delisting in abeyance
showed the U.S. commitment to substance and urged the U.S. to
provide "high-level advance notice" to Japan when the time
comes to formally delist the DPRK. On the Indian nuclear
deal, Japan will support the consensus, but would withdraw
this support in the event of another Indian nuclear test.
Regarding Russia/Georgia, VFM Yabunaka noted that Japan, as
G8 Chair, will need to figure out how to handle the
traditional G8 Foreign Ministers meeting on the margins of
UNGA; it will also need to consider the visits later this
year of PM Putin and FM Lavrov. The Ambassador and VFM
Yabunaka also discussed realignment, beef and Japanese
concerns over U.S. policy on disputed territories. End
Summary.

OEF/Afghanistan/Pakistan
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2. (C) Hosting the Ambassador for lunch on August 19, Vice
Foreign Minister Mitoji Yabunaka opened by noting that the
Prime Minister's imminent decision on when to open the next
Diet session will impact both whether Fukuda can attend UNGA
o/a September 25 as he would like, as well as the
government's efforts to push for legislation to extend
Japan's participation in Indian Ocean refueling operations in
support of Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF). Fearing that
the opposition will make hay at the ruling coalition's
expense should the Diet session run too long, some in the
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and coalition partner Komeito
are reluctant to extend the Diet session to deal with the
refueling legislation, Yabunaka explained. The ruling
coalition is also eager to use the upcoming session to pass a
supplemental budget to assist those hurt by rising prices,
such as fishermen.


3. (C) The United States understands the difficulties Japan
faces in contributing militarily to coalition efforts in
Afghanistan, but a failure to continue the refueling
operations would come as a shock to the United States and
other coalition partners whose soldiers and others are in
harm's way in Afghanistan, the Ambassador stressed. The
Komeito and others must understand that Japan's refueling
mission sends an important signal about Japan's willingness
to participate in endeavors important to the international
community; these politicians should not think that Japan will
get a free pass in this regard. For its part, the United
States will coordinate with other coalition embassies to make
clear to Japan's public and elected representatives the
importance of Japan's OEF contribution. "This is not a
U.S.-Japan issue, but an issue of Japan's role in the
international community," the Ambassador underlined. VFM
Yabunaka expressed his appreciation for the Ambassador's
efforts in this area, noting that MOFA has engaged with Diet
members and others on the need for Japan's continued
refueling operations.


4. (C) In response to VFM Yabunaka's statement that many
politicians have stated that they will get behind extending
the refueling legislation provided it has over 50% public
support, the Ambassador stressed that the Japanese government
needs to show leadership in this area; if every country
participating in the coalition waited for public opinion to
come around, nothing would get done. Should Japan halt its
refueling operations, it would marginalize itself
internationally and become less of a player. VFM Yabunaka

agreed, adding that the Fukuda administration's game plan is
to continue to seek public and opposition support for the
legislation without giving the impression that an override of
the opposition-controlled Upper House is a foregone
conclusion. In response to the Ambassador's question about
whether the Diet session will have enough time to deal with
the refueling legislation and the likely override, VFM
Yabunaka was confident that "extending the Diet session as
necessary should not be a problem."


5. (C) Noting that Afghanistan needs Japan's and the
international community's support in other ways, the
Ambassador urged Japan to look at additional possibilities
for providing assistance. VFM Yabunaka confirmed that Japan
is considering what forms of aid it can offer to support
Afghan stability, development and reconstruction. On the
Ring Road, Japan is "doing as much as it can do" under
difficult circumstances. Already a number of road workers
have been killed this year, but Japan will continue to make
use of the current contractor and its expertise, the VFM said.


6. (C) Turning briefly to Pakistan, Yabunaka expressed his
government's concern about command and control issues related
to its nuclear stockpile, but added that the military made a
good decision to stay away from ongoing political
developments.

North Korea
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7. (S) VFM Yabunaka expressed appreciation for U.S. pressure
on the DPRK to respond to Japanese concerns on the abduction
issue. Senior Japanese politicians such as Chief Cabinet
Secretary Machimura and Abductions Minister Nakayama are
primarily concerned with finding abductees who are still
alive, and although there is no explicit reference to this
goal in the recent Japan-DPRK abductions agreement, "the
North Koreans understand its importance." Should no Japanese
-- either from the list of named individuals or otherwise --
be found alive, then the North Koreans will need to come up
with a convincing story. As for discussions about
reparations and normalization, VFM Yabunaka stressed that it
is "premature to discuss money, but we will do so when the
time is right."


8. (S) Japan and the DPRK agreed to have results, "if
possible," by the fall, which Japan considers to be towards
the end of October, the VFM continued. The two sides have
been maintaining good communication, and once the DPRK stands
up its investigation committee and launches its
reinvestigation, Japan will lift its restrictions on travel
and charter flights. The DPRK needs to come up with a
credible story if it has nothing positive to provide, VFM
Yabunaka repeated, "so things could get difficult in two to
three months."


9. (S) On the subject of delisting, the VFM noted that the
U.S. refusal to delist in the absence of a nuclear
verification process showed Japanese delisting critics that
"the United States is committed to substance, rather than
just a deal for a deal's sake." That said, once the United
States decides to go forward with the formal delisting, it
would be very helpful to have high-level advance notice, the
VFM added.

Indian Nuclear Deal
--------------


10. (C) Noting that Indian PM Singh will telephone PM Fukuda
August 20, VFM Yabunaka said that Japan intends to take a
constructive position at the upcoming Nuclear Suppliers Group
meeting and will work to ensure that a consensus is reached.
Japan realizes that it will be "tough" to get India to agree
to a nuclear testing moratorium, but still needs to take
domestic public opinion into account. As such, Japan's
position will be that it will unilaterally revoke its
agreement with the consensus should India conduct another
test. Japan will also call on India to join the Nuclear
Nonproliferation Treaty and refrain from further testing, VFM

Yabunaka said.

Georgia/Russia
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11. (C) The Ambassador thanked VFM Yabunaka for Japan's
support on the Georgia issue and in the G7 phone call with
the Secretary. Russia's actions have been unacceptable and
troubling to us, its neighbors and others in the
international community. The VFM agreed that Russia's
behavior was "terrible," and Japan decided to offer Georgia
humanitarian assistance. As G8 Chair, normally Japan would
host a Foreign Ministers meeting on the margins of UNGA, but
needs to consider how to proceed based on discussions with
its G7 partners. Japan will also need to consider how to
handle the visits later this year of PM Putin and Lavrov, as
agreed to in Toyako in July.

Territorial Disputes
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12. (C) On the subject of territorial disputes and the
labeling of certain disputed territories as "undesignated" by
a U.S. government agency, VFM Yabunaka noted that the
Japanese government had already raised its concerns in
Washington and Tokyo. For the Japanese, the issue of highest
concern is the Senkaku Islands, and a labeling of the
Senkakus as "undesignated" would be the "worst possible
scenario" for Japan and the credibility of the bilateral
alliance. The Japanese appreciated former Deputy Secretary
Armitage's statement that the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty
covers the Senkakus and understand the legalistic position
that the United States cannot involve itself in a territorial
matter between Japan and China. But an "undesignated"
labeling would be the "worst scenario," Yabunaka repeated.
The Ambassador expressed his understanding that this is a
core issue for Japan and pledged to pass on the Japanese
government's concerns. The important thing, the Ambassador
stressed, is that U.S. policy has not changed.

Realignment
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13. (C) Turning to DPRI, MOFA North America DG Nishimiya
noted that the Japanese government had stood up two teams to
deal with issues related to the Futenma Replacement Facility
(FRF) and "dangers" at the existing Futenma Marine Corps Air
Station (MCAS). The Japanese government has been steadfast
in its opposition to moving the FRF runway and, on the
"Futenma dangers" issue, maintained that the Joint Committee
agreement from last August remains in effect. The efforts of
these teams had taken the steam out of Chief Cabinet
Secretary Machimura's and others' Futenma-related efforts.
On Guam, the situation is much improved over the spring, and
both sides are making good efforts to prepare their
respective budgets based on the roadmap. Regarding the Guam
tax issue, this is very legalistic and must be taken care of,
Nishimiya said; "it is a difficult nut to crack," and it may
be necessary for the Department of State's legal experts to
get involved, he added. Both Futenma and Guam are in better
shape now than in the spring, but we need to make sure that
other parts of the realignment roadmap, such as Iwakuni,
continue to move forward as well, Nishimiya noted.


14. (C) VFM Yabunaka echoed that we had been successful in
ensuring that the roadmap is in place, and in blocking
"changes from outside." The next milestone on Okinawa will
be the environmental impact assessment, the VFM noted.

Beef
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15. (C) On beef, VFM Yabnuaka underlined the importance the
Fukuda administration attaches to consumer safety, and said
that the offer of 30 months remains as a first step. The
Ambassador urged the Japanese government to take steps to
resolve this issue, particularly with a new administration
coming into office in January.
SCHIEFFER