CLIMATE CHANGE: NEW ENVIRONMENT MINISTER

C O N F I D E N T I A L TOKYO 002189 SIPDIS STATE FOR IO, G, EAP/J AND OES/EGC NSC FOR PAUL BROWN AND JONATHAN SHRIER CEQ FOR LANDON VAN DYKE DOE FOR S-3 E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/06/2018 TAGS: SENV ENRG KGHG PGOV PREL JA SUBJECT: CLIMATE CHANGE: NEW ENVIRONMENT MINISTER REPRESENTS HIS PARTY'S PRO-KYOTO VIEWS REF: A. TOKYO 1585 ¶B. TOKYO 2122 Classified By: DCM James Zumwalt, reasons 1.4 b and d ¶1. (C) New Environment Minister Tetsuo Saito will represent the views of the New Komeito Party on climate change, which are more pro-Kyoto than those of the LDP or other ministries, according to Ministry of Environment, Office of International Strategy on Climate Change Director Hiroaki Takiguchi. As the lone representative in the new cabinet (ref B) of coalition junior partner the New Komeito Party, Saito, and climate change policy, could be the focus for the Party to exert influence on Japanese government policy, Takiguchi told Embassy Science Counselor during a courtesy call August 7. (Comment: Komeito has had just one minister in the coalition cabinets, and does not necessarily rely on that minister for exerting pressure on every issue that is important to the Party. Komeito already has an impact on big issues from the diet schedule, to the date for the elections, to security policies. The point of concern here is whether Saito will tend to take a more vocal position on environmental issues and whether this Komeito connection will have an impact when Saito meets/talks with other environmental ministers. End comment.) ¶2. (C) Saito's predecessor, who hailed from the ruling LDP, was often in front of the Fukuda Administration on climate policy, and the Environment Ministry traditionally took a more pro-Kyoto stance than METI or Japanese industry. However, PM Fukuda was well aware of New Komeito's views on climate when he appointed Saito to this position. Moreover, Fukuda wants to take a more aggressive approach on climate change issues, according to the Foreign Ministry's new DG for Global Issues Shinsuke Sugiyama. Amb. Sugiyama told EMIN Aug. 7 that Fukuda is looking to change the details of his climate change program, the "Fukuda Vision," which he unveiled in a June 9 speech (ref A). While climate will not be the most important issue in the next election, Sugiyama said, if Fukuda can show a more activist stance on climate change, it would be hard for the opposition DPJ to use the issue against him. ¶3. (C) Saito's actions in his first week on the job back-up Takiguchi's comments. Two days after assuming office, Saito said Japan should set a medium-term target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 25 percent by 2020 or 2025 with 1990 as the baseline year. This idea corresponds to New Komeito Party policy, but is at odds with the official GOJ stance. While Fukuda's position may be evolving, previously he and other government officials have said Japan will announce its mid-term target "at an appropriate time" in 2009, and have suggested moving the baseline year forward to 2005 (ref A). Takiguchi said Saito's comments were his personal opinions and Japanese government policy remains the same. SCHIEFFER