PACOM COMMANDER KEATING'S JAN 18 MEETINGS WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 000175 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/J; OSD FOR APSA SHINN/SEDNEY/HILL/BASALLA; USFJ FOR J00/J01/J5 E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/23/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR CH JA SUBJECT: PACOM COMMANDER KEATING'S JAN 18 MEETINGS WITH JAPANESE FOREIGN AND DEFENSE MINISTERS REF: BEIJING 188 Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer, Reasons: 1.4 (b/d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Senior Chinese officials were considerably less belligerent on the issue of Taiwan during his January 13-18 visit to China than in May 2007, likely due to consistent messages from the U.S. Government and the results of Taiwan's legislative elections, visiting PACOM Commander ADM Timothy Keating told Foreign Minister Masahiko Koumura and Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba on January 18. Koumura and Ishiba asked for ADM Keating's thoughts on his China visit, especially on the recent Chinese military buildup. ADM Keating, accompanied by the Charge, informed the ministers that he had strongly urged China to be more transparent with its defense policy, particularly with respect to the January 2007 anti-satellite (ASAT) test and refusal of port calls by U.S. military vessels. He noted that the PRC did not raise the successful test launch of SM-3 missiles from the Japanese destroyer Kongo, nor did it respond substantively to a U.S. invitation for Chinese military participation as observers in multilateral exercises. Keating thanked the Japanese government for the resumption of refueling operations in the Indian Ocean in support of Operation Enduring Freedom. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) On January 18, visiting PACOM Commander Timothy Keating called separately on Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Foreign Minister Masahiko Koumura. ADM Keating expressed appreciation for all the Japanese government's efforts to resume refueling operations in the Indian Ocean in support of Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF). Recalling his experience as 5th Fleet/NAVCENT Commander, he pointed out that he is intimately familiar with the POLITICAL difficulties that the Japanese government faced during Japan's initial participation in OEF. Ishiba briefed Keating on the passage of the new Anti-terror Special Measures Law and his dispatch order for the first vessels, set to depart on January 24. Ishiba and Koumura both thanked the United States for all the information provided during the Diet deliberations on the new law, underscoring that the refueling operations were Japan's �A;responsibility to the international community. -------------- TAIWAN -------------- ¶3. (C) Turning to his January 13-18 visit to China, ADM Keating said senior Chinese officials from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defense had toned down noticeably their rhetoric on Taiwan, in contrast to his visit in May 2007. While Chinese officials continued to emphasize that PRC-Taiwan RELATIONS remained difficult, all discussions on Taiwan were less heated and more rational than in past encounters. ADM Keating suggested that the apparent change in the Chinese position is attributable to: 1) Secretary Rice's recent comment that Taiwan's planned referendum on UN membership is unhelpful and provocative; 2) the KMT's strong performance in Taiwan's recent legislative elections; and 3) Beijing's understanding that the U.S. Government's one-China policy remains unchanged. -------------- TRANSPARENCY IN PLA'S BUILD-UP, INTENTION -------------- ¶4. (C) ADM Keating stated that he delivered strong messages to his Chinese interlocutors that Beijing needed to increase transparency. He explained he had asked for more information on China's military buildup, not just in terms of assets, but also with respect to the People's Liberation Army (PLA)'s intentions. He specifically brought up China's January 2007 anti-satellite (ASAT) test and refusal to allow the USS Kitty Hawk and other U.S. vessels to make port calls to Hong Kong. Responding to a question from Koumura, Keating stated that he is cautiously optimistic that China would make an effort to improve transparency on its defense program. Senior Chinese TOKYO 00000175 002 OF 002 officials he had met in May seemed eager to develop their relationships with him further during this visit. However, Keating added, much work remained before China could achieve a satisfactory level of transparency in its military. -------------- NO COMMENTS ON BMD DESPITE KONGO LAUNCH -------------- ¶5. (C) ADM Keating noted that Chinese officials did not raise many questions on ballistic missile defense despite the successful December SM-3 test launch from the JMSDF destroyer Kongo. They also did not respond substantively to U.S. offers for the Chinese military to participate as observers in multilateral exercises. The Chinese officials also did not comment on the U.S.-Japan alliance or other third-country issues except for fleeting references to the recent visit to China by Prime Minister Fukuda, Keating said. -------------- ASAT -------------- ¶6. (C) Ishiba opined that China's ASAT test was hardly surprising, considering that the United States has possessed such capability for many decades and the relative ease with which Japan can acquire it. Given that China does not yet have the ability to shoot down high altitude satellites, the ASAT test does not appear to pose a great security threat, Ishiba said. ADM Keating commented that the inherent difficulty of the ASAT test supported the view that China remains focused on asymmetric warfare techniques, such as computer network attacks and satellite jamming. -------------- MISSILES / CARRIER PROGRAM -------------- ¶7. (C) Ishiba sought Keating's opinions on a range of Chinese military topics, including China's 20-km range surface-to-air missiles, aircraft carrier development, and the E-2C airborne early warning system. Keating responded that he would be concerned if the Chinese navy develops an area denial capability. It is clear, ADM Keating stated, that China is looking to extend its reach to blue waters. Furthermore, the Chinese appeared to be moving increasingly toward domestic research and production on surface-to-air missiles and relying less on foreign (Russian) models. ¶8. (C) On the issue of aircraft carriers, Keating said that China appeared to be developing a carrier program but would encounter significant difficulties before successful development. He noted that his Chinese interlocutors did not engage him on Chinese aircraft carrier development during this visit -- a contrast with the high level of interest shown during his May 2007 visit. China's development of E-2C airborne early warning aircraft is likely a response to the Chinese navy's need for electronic countermeasures to surface-to-surface and surface-to-air missiles with over-the-horizon capability, Keating said. ¶9. (U) ADM Keating did not have a chance to clear this message. SCHIEFFER