G8 POLITICAL DIRECTORS MEETINGS IN TOKYO, JUNE 10,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 TOKYO 001642 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER UK IT GM RS CA SI AF PK IR, BM, ZI, JA SUBJECT: G8 POLITICAL DIRECTORS MEETINGS IN TOKYO, JUNE 10, 2008 Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer, reasons 1.4(b),(d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Under Secretary Bill Burns participated in the June 9-10, 2008 Tokyo meetings of the G8 Political Directors, hosted by Japanese Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs Kenichiro Sasae. Discussion topics included Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, Zimbabwe and a review of the plans for the G8 Foreign Ministers meeting June 26-27. At an informal PD,s dinner on June 9, U/S Burns briefed on Middle East issues and Japanese DFM Sasae led a discussion on DPRK and the Six Party Talks. End Summary. ¶2. (U) Participants: U.S.: Bill Burns Japan: Kenichiro Sasae (host) UK: Mark Lyall Grant France: Gerard Araud Italy: Giulio Terzi di Sant'Agata Germany: Volker Stanzel Russia: Sergei Kislyak Canada: Colleen Swords Slovenia (EU Presidency): Matjaz Sinkovec EU Council Secretariat: Robert Cooper EU Commission: Karel Kovanda -------------- AFGHANISTAN -------------- ¶3. (C) The Political Directors reviewed the draft text of the "Statement on Afghanistan" to be approved by G8 Foreign Ministers at their June 26 meeting in Kyoto. Participants stressed the need to sharpen the text, focus on deliverables from the Paris Conference, recognize the International Security Assistance Force's (ISAF) role in creating a stabile security environment, and examine ways foster Afghan and Pakistani cooperation in the border region. U/S Burns emphasized the need to strengthen support for UN Secretary-General Kai Eide and the role of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA). ¶4. (C) Russian PD Kislyak expressed concern that the statement was too positive and noted that problems of instability caused by terrorism and narco-trafficking were not sufficiently addressed. Sasae undertook to incorporate edits proposed and other edits based on comments by PDs and circulate a revised draft by the end of the week. ¶5. (C) DFM Sasae also highlighted changes to the draft text of the "Coordination Arrangement for the G8 Afghanistan-Pakistan Initiative," noting that the draft text did not mandate creation of any new institutions. ¶6. (C) German PD Stanzel reiterated his proposal to invite the Pakistani and Afghan Foreign Ministers to Kyoto in order to help obtain and solidify Kabul's and Islamabad's commitment and buy-in to stated goals, and to endorse of the over 150 projects that have been proposed since the last Foreign Ministerial. The UK's Lyall Grant replied that while Afghan and Pakistani participation might be useful, it was not essential. Canada offered strong objections, arguing that participation would lead to watering down the draft text and the late inclusion of the ministers would not be helpful. After private consultations with the parties, Sasae announced that the Afghan and Pakistani foreign ministers would be not be invited this year with the understanding that Italy would invite them next year. Italian PD Terzi committed to reporting the proposal to his foreign minister. -------------- PAKISTAN TOKYO 00001642 002 OF 005 -------------- ¶7. (C) Sasae said it was important for G8 members to support Pakistan's efforts on the path to democracy and in opposition to terrorism. The UK, along with others, highlighted the fragile nature of developments in the country, while noting that the army appeared to be backing away from the political process. G8 support efforts must not interfere with the internal dynamics. Noting that the presence of Afghan Al Qaeda, Afghan Taliban, and Pakistani Taliban groups along the border complicated the security picture, Lyall Grant said it was important the Pakistani Army not take actions detrimental to the interests of Afghan authorities, especially with regard to Afghan Taliban forces. Canada opined that, with its fragile political situation and nuclear capability, Pakistan would present serious concerns even if it did not border Afghanistan. U/S Burns urged the G8 to make long-term commitments to Pakistan and welcomed collective efforts to support security and economic development. -------------- Foreign Ministers, Agenda -------------- ¶8. (C) Russian PD Kislyak opposed the inclusion of Tibet as a separate agenda item and suggested it be discussed under "Any Other Business (AOB)". Specifying Tibet as an agenda item would not be helpful to the G8's interactions with China, he said, contending that Tibet is an "internal matter" for China. This assertion was challenged by others, who pointed out that many of the issues the G8 address can be seen as "internal" and that the Ministers have the right to raise any issue they choose. ¶9. (C) U/S Burns noted that the Secretary considers Tibet a very important issue and that the G8 Ministers need to have enough time to discuss it and that this discussion ought to be reflected in a brief, measured reference in the Chair's statement. Germany and the UK said the G8 should be free to discuss any issue and that the Chair's statement should reflect all issues discussed. While noting the resistance by some to Russia's argument, Sasae decided to remove Tibet as a separate agenda item, committing to raising it in the AOB session and to summarizing the discussion in the Chairman's statement. ¶10. (C) French PD Araud proposed removing the Western Balkans from the agenda, replacing it with a discussion on the Caucasus, and, more specifically, Georgia. This would show Georgian authorities that the international community cares and is ready to be involved in fostering direct negotiations with the Abkhaz. U/S Burns and most of the other participants agreed with the proposal, noting that the Western Balkans had been discussed extensively in previous meetings. Kislyak registered Russia's disagreement with this proposal, arguing that the ministers should discuss items where progress was possible. "The G8 will not be able to constructively contribute to the situation in Georgia, he asserted, while the Western Balkans problems are far from resolved and will remain on the international agenda for generations. In its role as President of the G8, Japan noted the disagreement and said it would consider the proposal. ¶11. (C) Later in the day, in the working lunch, Lyall Grant again asked Kislyak for his views on the situation in the Caucasus. Kislyak responded that it is "less than encouraging" and said that meetings held so far have been inconclusive. Georgia, he said, must withdrawal forces that it "illegally" introduced into the border areas, and said there are signs that Georgia continues to prepare for military operations by pre-positioning forces and equipment. "We remain always mindful of the threat," he said. TOKYO 00001642 003 OF 005 Accordingly, Russia has reinforced its peacekeepers under the agreed upon limits, and is working to restore rail lines in the area. Proposals for economic and commercial cooperation have all failed and it is too early, he said, to say if things are more positive now than they were before. In response to questions about whether the work on the rail lines are a military operation, Kislyak said that the work is being done by a military railway battalion, but that these are simply engineers, not combat troops, and that they were selected to do the work because they have capabilities to move more quickly in difficult areas than civilian engineers. U/S Burns asked him why the Russians did not consult with the Georgians before deploying the railway battalion, but Kislyak simply replied that the project has been in progress for some time, that it is humanitarian in nature, and that it will ultimately prove beneficial to the Georgians. -------------- COUNTERTERRORISM STATEMENT -------------- ¶12. (C) Japan said the Leaders' Statement would include nonproliferation, peace building and transnational organized crime, along with economic issues, while the Chairman's Statement would cover regional issues. U/S Burns said the United States strongly believes in the need for a stand alone G8 Leaders Statement on counterterrorism (CT),noting the global interest in this important issue. While the United States is ready to further refine the draft language, keeping text on the terrorists' use of charitable financial institutions is a priority. Russia, while joining the consensus supporting a stand alone CT statement, proposed time be set aside for the Foreign Ministers to review the CT statement prior to it being sent to the G8 leaders. All the other PDs also supported the U.S. argument for a stand alone CT statement. Japan said it would defer to the preference of the G8 members for a stand alone statement, while stating that experts like the Lyon-Roma Group need to review the substantive issues raised in the statement. Japan will redraft and circulate the statement to the Political Directors and to the Lyon-Roma Group. -------------- IRAN -------------- ¶13. (C) French PD Araud led the discussion on Iran highlighting EU's Javier Solana upcoming visit to Tehran, where he and several European PDs will present Iran with an updated version of the 2006 offer of cooperation in exchange for Iran giving up its nuclear program. To date, Iran as shown no interest in negotiating and has been adamant in refusing to abide by rules set by the international community. The only hint of a break from this is that the wording Iran used in its counter offer of a cooperation package includes language similar to that used in the 2006 offer. Commenting on the situation on the ground, Araud said Iran seems to have set in place new cascades, marking a continuation of a chaotic nuclear program that Iran's leaders recognize does not work well but continue to pursue for political reasons. Iran also has shown no intention of answering the IAEA's questions on alleged connection between its military and its nuclear program. ¶14. (C) Russia, which joined France as lead on this topic, noted that while Iran has much to gain from accepting the 2006 P-5 plus one offer, Tehran never even looked at it. In relative terms, that was a more likely time for progress as there were splits in Tehran on the path forward. On the other hand, now there is no apparent discussion in Iran on the trade-offs of cooperating with the international community. The best that can be hoped for from the visit by TOKYO 00001642 004 OF 005 Solana next week is that it will spark internal debate in Iran. ¶15. (C) Every opportunity to encourage internal Iranian debate should be encouraged, Italy said. The P-5 plus one must continue to pursue the dual track of offering cooperation and showing Iran's public and leaders that the international community is ready to engage, while also keeping on the pressure by showing readiness to pass and implement sanctions. The European Commission representative speculated there is probably more debate in Tehran than we can see, as evidenced by the contest over how much information to give the IAEA. Germany said the package that Iran offered as a counter package shows a unified leadership and also allowed Iran to pass a message to the Middle East that it is standing toe to toe with the West. The UK said it is necessary to engage Iran but expressed pessimism about a positive outcome and said the international community needs to be ready to put on the pressure, including implementing UN Resolution 1803. If those measures have no impact, then wider measures, including those focused on specific sectors and hydrocarbons, will need to be considered. ¶16. (C) Sasae closed the conversation noting all need to be ready to step up the pressure if Solana's visit to Tehran next week is unsuccessful. This includes the G-8 being ready to issue a strong statement. Solving this problem will not be easy, Sasae noted, recalling that his counterparts during his last visit to Tehran said Iran is adamant about its right to peaceful use of nuclear energy and that it wants to be recognized as a major player in the region. Iran's President Ahmadinejad showed this resolve as he engaged in a heated debate with Prime Minister Fukuda during an hour long meeting last week. -------------- BURMA -------------- ¶17. (C) DFM Sasae provided a briefing on where things currently stand in Burma, concluding that putting pressure on the regime is not enough; they must also be given incentives to act in a more positive manner. He noted the Regime had gradually begun to accept disaster assistance, but had done so selectively, choosing to work only with their "friends", China, India and Thailand. Japan believes the more pressure we exert on them, the more they will consider us as "enemies" and look more exclusively to other nations not deemed as hostile. There was discussion about whether the emphasis of the G8 at this point should be on humanitarian assistance or political reform, the consensus being that assistance is paramount at this moment but that we should not lose sight of the political situation. U/S Burns stress the importance of pressing hard for access and a systematic needs assessment by the UN/ASEAN team, and emphasized the need to also keep focused on the underlying political problem in Burma. Russian PD Kislyak said the United Nations must be the key, the current task at hand is to provide humanitarian assistance, and that the delivery of such assistance must be depoliticized. ¶18. (C) French PD Araud was vocal in terming the regime as "repugnant, brutal, ineffective and corrupt" and argued that the principle of "responsibility to protect" needs to be examined more closely in light of the Burma situation. Italy agreed that perhaps it is time to reexamine this concept, and Canada's Colleen Swords said that as this is a moral principle, one shouldn't get too hung up on legalities. UK PD Lyall Grant also concurred that maybe this concept can be reexamined, but pointed out that currently most lawyers seem to be in accord that it does not apply. TOKYO 00001642 005 OF 005 -------------- ZIMBABWE -------------- ¶19. (C) The short term outlook for Zimbabwe is "bloody and difficult" predicted the UK's Lyall Grant. The run-off election is scheduled for the same day the Ministers meet. The immediate priority, he said, is to get as many observers as possible into the country but reports of intimidation paint a very bad picture. His government is not optimistic that the second round will be held in an environment conducive to fair and peaceful elections. Canada's Swords said the situation is fast becoming a humanitarian crisis caused by the actions of the Mugabe government, and also noted there are indications that perhaps the military, not the civilians, are now calling the shots in Harare in order to protect their positions. Kislyak said that it would be unhelpful for the Ministers to be issuing "empty slogans" on the same day as the election. Lyall Grant agreed, but said it is right that Zimbabwe is on the agenda and that the situation must be watched closely to determine how the Foreign Ministers should react. -------------- BMENA FORUM FOR THE FUTURE -------------- ¶20. (C) Sasae concluded the substantive discussions by mentioning that sub-cabinet level meetings on the BMENA Forum for the Future were currently underway in Dubai and that the Ministerial is due to take place in Abu Dhabi on October 18-19. He urged the G8 governments to cooperate with the countries of the Middle East on this initiative. -------------- NEXT STEPS -------------- ¶21. (C) Sasae noted that the last PD meeting prior to the Ministerial will be held the evening of June 25 in Kyoto. Japan will be working to simplify the Chair's draft statement and to redraft the stand alone statement on Afghanistan. Both will be circulated by the end of the week. The Afghanistan statement will be released on the evening of June 26 to build up media coverage going into main day of G8 Foreign Ministers' meetings on June 27. SCHIEFFER