FUKUDA-PUTIN SUMMIT AVOIDS DISCUSSION OF MISSILE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TOKYO 001221 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE PASS EEB/IEC/ENR HENGEL AND HAYMOND MOSCOW PASS VLADIVOSTOK HELSINKI PASS ST. PETERSBURG E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/02/2016 TAGS: PREL MARR PARM ENRG JA RU SUBJECT: FUKUDA-PUTIN SUMMIT AVOIDS DISCUSSION OF MISSILE DEFENSE REF: A. 07 TOKYO 5019 ¶B. TOKYO 1002 ¶C. TOKYO 1074 ¶D. TOKYO 1095 ¶E. TOKYO 0366 Classified By: Charge d' Affaires a.i. Joseph R. Donovan. Reasons 1.4 (B) (D) ¶1. (C) Summary. Russian President Vladimir Putin and President-elect Dimitry Medvedev avoided raising Russian concerns about Japan's ballistic missile defense (BMD) system and United States-Japan BMD cooperation during Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda's April 25-26 Moscow Summit. Japanese officials "guess" that Russia is satisfied with Tokyo's rationale for developing a BMD program, but assess that Moscow remains concerned about the United States BMD program, and Washington's efforts to link the U.S. and Japanese missile systems. Fukuda made no progress toward resolving the Northern Territories issue, but the two sides promised to consult on the dispute at an early June meeting. On North Korea, Fukuda urged Moscow to pressure Pyongyang to simultaneously resolve the nuclear, missile, and abduction issues. In economic developments, Fukuda and Putin welcomed joint efforts to explore a new oil field at Severo-Mogdinsky in Siberia. In separate meetings, Russian officials blamed poor weather and pilot error for the unintentional February 9 intrusion by a TU-95 "Bear" strategic bomber into Japanese airspace. End Summary. -------------- Establish Ties with Russian Leaders -------------- ¶2. (C) On May 1, Russia Division Principal Deputy Director Kotaro Otsuki briefed Embassy Tokyo on Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda's April 25-26 Moscow visit. During a stopover abbreviated by pressing business in the Diet, the PM attended a dinner with members of the Japanese business community and representatives of cultural affairs organizations, then greeted students enrolled in a Japanese language program at a local junior high school. The following day, Fukuda gave interviews with Russian media, and held a two-hour meeting (including a working lunch) with President Vladimir Putin and a one-hour session with President-elect Dimitry Medvedev, before departing Moscow late on April 26. ¶3. (C) Otsuki pointed to domestic political problems and "technical" difficulties in scheduling with the Diet as reasons the Prime Minister had been forced to cancel other stops of a previously planned tour of European capitals - leaving the Kremlin as the only place the Japanese leader visited. Japanese officials hoped the Summit would help Fukuda establish a personal relationship with Putin and Medvedev during the PM's first meeting with the Russian leadership. ¶4. (C) According to Otsuki, Fukuda's discussion with Putin covered four major areas - planning for the July 7-9 G-8 Summit at Hokkaido's Lake Toya, the Northern Territories, cooperation on the Initiative for the Strengthening Japan-Russia Cooperation in the Russian Far East and Eastern Siberia, and international issues. Talks with Medvedev covered Japan's position on a post-Kyoto Protocol framework, climate change, nonproliferation, and African economic development. TOKYO 00001221 002 OF 003 -------------- Missile Defense Not Discussed -------------- ¶5. (C) Putin and Medvedev did not raise previously stated Russian concerns about Japan's ballistic missile defense (BMD) system and/or United States-Japan BMD cooperation (Reftels). Asked if Tokyo had been surprised by Moscow's failure to repeat concerns highlighted by Russian officials during the last four high-level discussions between the two countries, Otsuki recalled Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's April 14 statement to counterpart Masahiko Koumura (Ref C) that Moscow "understood" the rationale behind Japan's BMD system. Otsuki offered his "guess that Russia was satisfied with the explanations Japan provided during the last three meetings." "Japan has explained several times that there is no link between the United States and Japanese systems, so to some extent the Russians appear to be satisfied," Otsuki continued. FM Koumura assesses, however, that Moscow remains concerned about the United States BMD and the links between the U.S. and Japanese systems, Otsuki related. The Russia Division official opined that Moscow's distress about BMD in Europe is linked to alarm over NATO's plans to expand the Alliance. However, the Kremlin does not view development of BMD capabilities in the Asia-Pacific region as an imminent threat, Otsuki concluded. -------------- Northern Territories -------------- ¶6. (C) In separate meetings with Putin and Medvedev, Fukuda made no progress toward resolving the Northern Territories issue. The President and PM repeated their calls for negotiators to find a solution acceptable to both sides, Otsuki noted (Ref C). The two leaders agreed that Deputy Foreign Minister Kenichiro Sasae and counterpart Alexei Borodavkin would further consult on the controversy during their early June meeting (Ref C). -------------- Joint Oil Exploration -------------- ¶7. (C) Fukuda and Putin welcomed the launch of efforts by the Irkutsk Oil Company and the Japan Oil, Gas, and Metals National Cooperation (JOGMEC) to jointly explore a new oil field at Severo-Mogdinsky in Siberia. The two companies will begin seismic and boring studies to estimate the size of the reserve, which Otsuki said would take five years to complete. Oil extracted from the joint venture would be shipped via pipeline to Japan and the Pacific. ¶8. (C) Otsuki said the Russian President and Japanese Prime Minister explored ways to realize cooperation on Japan's proposal to improve bilateral cooperation in the Russian Far East and Eastern Siberia. Putin noted Moscow's intention to hold the 2012 APEC meeting in Vladivostok and asked for Tokyo's assistance with improving the regions infrastructure. Fukuda and Putin also discussed the importance of conducting youth exchanges. -------------- North Korea/China -------------- TOKYO 00001221 003 OF 003 ¶9. (C) The two leaders "took some time in holding discussions on North Korea," according to Otsuki. Fukuda urged Moscow to pressure Pyongyang to simultaneously resolve the nuclear, missile, and abduction issues. Putin responded he did/could not understand why the DPRK had abducted Japanese citizens and "did not totally understand their behavior." Fukuda and Putin discussed North Korea's proliferation with Syria, news of which broke close to the time of the Summit, but Otsuki claimed he did not have notes on the leaders' discussion on that particular topic and could not provide details on their talks. Turning to the PRC, the President and PM agreed that China must be encouraged to assume a responsible role in the international community. -------------- Air Incursion -------------- ¶10. (C) Otsuki briefly outlined April 22-23 discussions on the Incidents at Sea Agreement in Tokyo between MOFA European Affairs Bureau Deputy Director-General Keiichi Katakami and a Russian military official whom Otsuki identified by the name Avdushin. The Russian delegation, repeating the explanation provided by FM Lavrov during an April 14 meeting with FM Koumura (Ref C),stated that the February 9 intrusion by a TU-95 "Bear" strategic bomber into Japanese airspace had not been intentional (Ref E). According to Otsuki, Avdushin blamed the incident on poor weather/climate conditions and "an unskilled pilot," whom Russian authorities had since punished. Otsuki said the Russian delegation did not directly admit the aircraft incursion, but both sides discussed the event "as if the Russian side did it." The Moscow team undertook to prevent such incidents from occurring again, and Tokyo considers the matter to be resolved, Otsuki reported. ¶11. (C) Otsuki provided data which purports to show dramatic increases in Russian military aircraft activity in the vicinity of Japan. According to a table supplied by the Ministry of Defense (e-mailed to EAP/J),the number of times Japan scrambled aircraft to intercept Russian planes increased from 116 in 2005 to 253 in 2007. Otsuki attributed the increased military activity to several factors, including a robust Russian economy and resultant increased military spending, a desire for improved pilot training, and Putin's desire to project an image of national strength. DONOVAN