CONGRESSMAN ROHRABACHER'S MEETINGS IN TOKYO

C O N F I D E N T I A L TOKYO 001136

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/23/2018
TAGS: ENRG KNNP PGOV PINR PREL JA
SUBJECT: CONGRESSMAN ROHRABACHER'S MEETINGS IN TOKYO


Classified By: AMBASSADOR J. THOMAS SCHIEFFER, REASONS 1.4(B) and (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Ranking Member of the International
Organizations, Human Rights, and Oversight Subcommittee of
the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, and senior member on
the House Committee on Science and Technology, Congressman
Dana Rohrabacher, met with senior Japanese government members
and elected officials March 26-28. Congressman Rohrabacher's
meetings focused on Japan's relations with Korea, China, and
Taiwan, as well as on the future of the DPRK. During his
trip, the Congressman also visited the Japanese government's
experimental High Temperature Gas-Cooled Nuclear Reactor
(HTGR). End Summary.

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JAPAN-CHINA-TAIWAN
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2. (C) Japanese Foreign Ministry (MOFA) Mitoji Yabunaka
highlighted to Congressman Rohrabacher that the U.S.-Japan
alliance will celebrate its 50th anniversary in 2010 and that
this should serve to remind the U.S., Japan and the rest of
the world of the importance of the Alliance's contributions
to regional peace and stability. Even China recognizes and
respects the U.S.-Japan security alliance, Yabunaka noted,
but added that the Chinese military build-up is of great
concern to Japan, not just in the Taiwan Strait but beyond it
as well. With the Taiwan election behind us, if the Chinese
military does not withdraw from the coastline, then the
build-up was never about Taiwan. Yabunaka said Japan wants a
good working relationship with China, but noted China needs
to understand the importance of transparency.


3. (C) Separately, referring to recent concerns in Japan over
the safety of Chinese goods, Diet member and former Foreign
Minister Taro Aso told Congressman Rohrabacher the Chinese
"don't give a damn" about employee health. As an example,
Aso said his family'sQent company developed a machine to
remove dust from the air to protect its workers' health. A
Chinese cement company bought some of these machines, but he
discovered during a visit that the Chinese company had never
turned them on. This is because the Chinese bosses know that
eventually people return to their provinces and new workers
come, Aso explained. He went on to say he envisioned
political turmoil in China in the near to mid term but warned
Congressman Rohrabacher not to expect China to become
democratic like the US. The Chinese are more like the
Europeans than Americans, racially very different across the
board. Aso intimated that in any fracture in China, the
country might divide into linguistic and ethnic regions.


4. (C) In a March 27 meeting with Ministry of Defense (MOD)
Director General for Defense Policy Nobushige Takamizawa,
Rep. Rohrabacher shared his outlook on Taiwan and its
relations with China. He asserted that the recent Taiwanese
election signals a decidedly pro-China attitude among the
people of Taiwan, which also raises significant concerns for
U.S. and Japanese security interests. A Taiwanese
reunification with China would embolden the PRC's territorial
ambitions, which, combined with the recent military build-up,
poses a threat to Japan. Takamizawa acknowledged that the
situation in the Taiwan Strait is a legitimate security
concern for the Japanese government, but stressed that the
issue is complicated in the Japanese political context.
Responding to Congressman Rohrabacher's comments on the new
U.S. airborne laser system currently in development as a
possible counter to Chinese military build-up, Takamizawa
noted that airborne laser systems are viewed negatively by
the Japanese public, who perceive them as being mainly
offensive weapons.


5. (C) Diet member and former Defense Minister Fumio Kyuma
shared other interlocutors' concerns over China. Kyuma
agreed with the Congressman that China presents a threat to
the overall stability of the Asia-Pacific region and that a
partnership of the large democracies in Asia to encourage
Chinese transparency on military and political issues might
be a good way of approaching China in a non-confrontational
manner. China must be "engaged" so that its economic ties
with the U.S. and Japan will lead to positive political
reforms. Separately, former Vice Admiral in the Japanese
Maritime Self Defense Forces (JMSDF) and Mitsubishi Research
Institute Senior Advisor Hideaki Kaneda echoed concerns that
the Congressman heard throughout his trip. In particular,
Kaneda said that the Japanese people have been lulled into a
false sense of complacency when it comes to Chinese maritime
territorial demands. The JMSDF has traditionally played a
complementary role with the U.S. Navy, supporting demining
operations and Anti-Submarine Warfare. While the JMSDF is
very advanced in terms of those specific defensive roles, it
is not sizeable enough to thwart a concerted assault by the
growing Chinese Navy. The Japanese government is making a
mistake by not increasing its military budget to meet the
growing Chinese ability to project power. While the Japanese
Navy is being surpassed in capability by the Chinese,
Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) is an area in which the US
and Japan must continue to cooperate in order to check
Chinese advances, Kaneda noted.

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JAPAN-KOREA-DPRK
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6. (C) Diet member Aso said that for the past ten years the
Korean peninsula has been a headache for Japan but since Lee
Myung-bak was elected president, the Japan-ROK relationship
has begun to improve. Internationally-minded South Koreans
had waited seven or eight years for this election outcome.
On the day of the election, the Korean Embassy in Tokyo threw
an enormous party signaling that the long cold winter with
Japan was over. In response to Rep. Rohrabacher's assertion
that the DPRK missile test of 2006 came at the behest of
China, Aso maintained that North Korea was in fact sending a
signal to China not to forget about them; North Korea was
revealing its desperation through the test. The China-DPRK
relationship is not as good as we think, and U.S. troops
should remain in the ROK because they keep Chinese troops
amassed on the DPRK border at bay. Congressman Rohrabacher
and Aso agreed that China's interest in the DPRK is in large
part driven by the vast mineral deposits which Pyongyang
controls.


7. (C) Rep. Rohrabacher expressed a grim outlook on prospects
for the Six-Party Talks, predicting to MOD DG Takamizawa that
the Bush Administration will give up on the process in light
of the DPRK's refusal to make a full declaration of its
nuclear programs. He argued that the combination of a
predicted food shortage in North Korea and the new
administration in South Korea taking a more hard-line stance
against Pyongyang provides a unique opportunity for the
United States and Japan to engage the ROK and China to work
toward toppling the Kim Jong-il regime. Takamizawa agreed
that relevant governments should exercise caution against
exaggerating the usefulness of the Six-Party Talks,
especially given China's tendency to use its status as the
host of the Talks in a self-serving way. On North Korea,
Takamizawa stated that regime change -- while an attractive
option -- is not realistic. The people in North Korea will
likely be prepared to mitigate the upcoming food shortage by
relying on "other means" beyond government rations. In
addition, the new South Korean government is not likely to
effect rapid change in the DPRK, but would rather "buy time"
and maintain status quo with North Korea.

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NEW NUCLEAR REACTOR?
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8. (C) Since the early 1990s, the Japan Atomic Energy Agency
(JAEA) has designed, developed, and maintained a High
Temperature Gas-cooled Nuclear Reactor (HGTR). As part of
Congressman Rohrabacher's visit, JAEA Scientific Consultant
Shusaku Shiozawa briefed the Congressman on the current state
of the technology. Shusaku noted that the current test
reactor has been in operation since 2004. He highlighted
that while Japan has made a choice to use Fast Breeder
Reactors for future commercial power generation purposes,
HTGRs hold promise for cogenerating hydrogen and have
extremely robust safety features. Noting that China has an
HTGR in development right now, Rep. Rohrabacher expressed
keen interest in the HTGR technology and said he may propose
to Congress cooperating with Japan and Korea to develop the
technology further. He also suggested to his GOJ and Diet
interlocutors that Japan and the U.S. should consider working
together to provide the reactors to India as part of an
overall strategy to redirect resources away from China.


9. (U) The Congressman's staff has cleared this cable.
SCHIEFFER