Return to Fukushima: Reform Not Resonating at Japan's

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TOKYO 001113 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE PASS USTR FOR BEEMAN STATE ALSO PASS FEDERAL TRADE COMMISSION - DSHANAHAN JUSTICE FOR INTERNATIONAL ANTITRUST - CHEMTOB TREASURY FOR IA - POGGI COMMERCE FOR 4410/ITA/MAC/OJ E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EINV EAIR PGOV PREL JA OECD SUBJECT: Return to Fukushima: Reform Not Resonating at Japan's Grassroots Ref: 07 Tokyo 1522 (U) Sensitive but unclassified. Not for internet distribution. ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Despite shrinking populations and fiscal shortfalls, local authorities in one northern Japan jurisdiction remain fixated on developing manufacturing and on maintaining socio-economic equality. During recent meetings in Fukushima Prefecture -- to the extent our interlocutors could represent their counterparts elsewhere in Japan -- USG efforts to promote growth-oriented regulatory reform seemed to have had little resonance in the localities. End summary. -------------- - Industrial Sector Strong but Credit Demand Low -------------- - ¶2. (SBU) Industry remains the focus of Fukushima's economy, according to the head of the local Bank of Japan branch. The BOJ official told visiting econoff Fukushima's FY06 manufactured goods shipments reached JPY5.8 trillion, 32 percent of the total manufacturing output of Japan's Tohoku Area (Fukushima, Miyagi, Yamagata, Iwate, Aomori and Akita Prefectures). Plans by Denso, a Toyota affiliate producing auto parts, to establish a plant in Fukushima this year will add to the prefecture's manufacturing strength, the BOJ official observed. Fukushima also benefited from some electrical component manufacturers' decisions to shift production to Japan's north for more efficient shipment to Russia, China, and Korea. Fukushima's role as an electricity supplier to Tokyo also boosts the percentage of "manufacturing." The BOJ official said nuclear plants in Fukushima generate 105.3 billion kWh of electricity annually, 30 percent of which is used in Fukushima; Tokyo consumes the remainder. ¶3. (SBU) On the financial side, the BOJ official indicated the amount of bad loans in Fukushima's three main local banks has shrunk and asset quality has improved. In addition, the banks' operations have stabilized, and because the deposit interest rate has risen, they want to increase their lending. However, local demand for loans remains weak. As a result, the banks have turned to syndicated lending with five percent of their total loans lent in Tokyo in packages organized by the capital's "megabanks." -------------- Not Even Ultraman Can Save the Day -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Fukushima Prefectural Government (FPG) officials stressed the current governor's efforts to attract new businesses. The former governor -- a strong proponent of local autonomy who ran the prefecture for 18 years until he was forced to resign in a 2006 bid-rigging scandal -- was an "idealist, very much interested in environmental protection," in the words of the FPG officials. The current incumbent, they stated, is far more "realistic" and labels himself the "marketing manager" for Fukushima, even putting that title ahead of "governor" on his official name card. ¶5. (SBU) Fukushima, the officials observed, has subsequently attracted more than 100 investments -- the best performance in Tohoku Area -- and has improved employment over the last two years. (Note: As the Tohoku prefectures closest to Tokyo, Fukushima has an advantage in attracting businesses over its more northerly neighbors. End note.) The FPG officials acknowledged, however, the prefecture's population (2,091,319 in 2005) has been decreasing since 1995. As a result, the current governor's aggressive business promotion efforts are needed to attract companies in hopes of maintaining or increasing the number of residents. ¶6. (SBU) Fukushima's fiscal condition also continues to tighten. The FY08 budget outlays will decline 1.2 percent (JPY10.5 billion), with personnel expenses taking a cut of JPY8.0 billion. Consequently, the FPG will reduce civil service salaries -- five TOKYO 00001113 002 OF 003 percent for bureaucrats in managerial positions and three percent for non-managerial personnel. The FPG officials stated FY08 public works will center on road construction and not on other "public facilities" (i.e., buildings). ¶7. (SBU) The fate of Fukushima's underutilized airport and the partially completed expressway to the facility exemplify the challenges the prefecture's declining population pose, according to local officials. Japan's national media spotlighted an effort to increase use of Fukushima Airport through an exhibition of paraphernalia from the popular children's program "Ultraman" at the airport's terminal. ¶8. (SBU) The FPG officials explained the purpose of the Ultraman exhibition at the airport is less to attract customers than to honor Ultraman's creator, a native of Fukushima's Sukagawa City. A local non-profit organization took the lead in setting up the exhibition in cooperation with the Fukushima Airport Building Corporation (controlled by the prefectural government). ¶9. (SBU) Regarding press reports that the Fukushima Airport expressway is one of Japan's most underutilized toll road, the problem centers on the fact the project remains incomplete, the FPG officials asserted. The airport road, which runs east to west, was planned to connect to two adjacent north-south expressways. At present, it intersects with only one of those highways, substantially limiting access for potential customers. The FPG officials expected both road and airport usage would increase once the remaining portion of the road connecting it to the second expressway is completed. ¶10. (SBU) The executive director of the Fukushima Chamber of Commerce and Industry (FCCI) was more critical of the problems with Fukushima Airport, tying them to bad policy and demographic decline. The GOJ has invested an enormous amount building airports all over Japan without taking economic factors into account, the FCCI official observed. He cited the GOJ's decision to construct a new airport on an Air Self-Defense Force base in nearby Ibaraki Prefecture despite declining usage in the region's other airports as an example of continued misguided policy. The official believed Fukushima Airport should increase its international connections to boost traffic and felt a prospective tie-up with Kansai International Airport in Osaka/Kobe will yield good results. -------------- -------------- Concern over Reform's Social Impact and Slower Global Economy -------------- -------------- ¶11. (SBU) The FCCI official strongly supported protecting small and medium enterprises and praised the GOJ decision to amend the Inheritance Tax Law to postpone 80 percent of the tax for small and medium enterprises. He opposed USG recommendations on the Large-Scale Retail Stores Location Law. Large-scale retail stores should be community-based and aim for a harmonious relationship with others -- not act like "black ships," the official stressed (referring to the U.S. fleet that ended Japan's seclusion in the mid-19th century). The FCCI official also supported the prospect of the Japan Fair Trade Commission applying punitive surcharges (in effect, fines) against companies engaged in "excessive competition" such as aggressive price cutting, set out in recent proposed amendments to Japan's main competition law. ¶12. (SBU) In the wake of the 2006 scandal, the FPG is promoting revision of local government public works procurement procedures to prevent bid rigging, though the results have not been positive, the FCCI official observed. Because of "excessive competition" with the expansion of open bidding, winning bidders have been losing money. Also, as the ceiling for bids on public works projects has become lower, there have been cases where no company can make a successful bid, he said, because none can reduce their costs adequately. ¶13. (SBU) According to the FCCI official, the labor structure in TOKYO 00001113 003 OF 003 Fukushima has changed from regular (i.e., permanent) to non-regular (i.e., based on time-limited contracts) employment. As a result, people have moved from Fukushima to Tokyo because of the limited number of openings for regular employment in the prefecture. The labor structure should return, by law, to the old form where regular positions dominated employment offerings, the FCCI official insisted. In addition, the GOJ should seriously look at addressing the general decrease in the working population and how to make the best use of housewives, part-time workers, and even "NEETs" (i.e., individuals "not in employment, education, or training" who have opted out of the labor force). ¶14. (SBU) Fukushima also feels the pinch of rising international commodity prices and the prospect of a slower global economy. Forty percent of the prefecture's businesses find it difficult to pass the additional oil and raw material costs on to their customers, according to hearings FCCI conducted with 70 local companies in February. Furthermore, if the yen continues to rise, plants manufacturing export goods may close, with a recession to follow, the official argued. He raised the possibility that corporate headquarters in Tokyo might find it easier to shut plants outside the capital area first, leaving localities like Fukushima to take the brunt of any slowdown. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶15. (SBU) We initially visited Fukushima -- a jurisdiction that falls at or near the median of most of Japan's statistical indices -- a year ago following the 2006 bid-rigging incident (reftel). The two greatest impressions at that time were the relative dynamism of firms and industries (like electronics) with international connections and the general lack of enthusiasm toward economic reform as advocated by former PM Koizumi. ¶16. (SBU) This year's visit revealed Fukushima's focus remains on manufacturing, with scarcely any mention of services or other sectors. The problems surrounding Fukushima's underutilized airport also highlight the chronic dilemma of a steadily shrinking population and the problems of the GOJ's policies and tactics for capital development. As concerns over a slowing international economy have increased, resistance to further domestic reform seems to have strengthened. Most notably, the FCCI official, a 2007 interlocutor, was fairly open in his opposition to positions taken by the USG in the bilateral regulatory reform initiative. If his views are widely shared among opinion leaders in Japan's hinterland -- and we suspect they are -- convincing the GOJ as a whole to adopt these reforms is likely to remain an uphill battle. Schieffer