FUKUDA FORCES PASSAGE OF NEW TERROR LAW; OEF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TOKYO 000107

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/10/2018
TAGS: PGOV MOPS PREL JA
SUBJECT: FUKUDA FORCES PASSAGE OF NEW TERROR LAW; OEF
REFUELING OPERATIONS COULD RESUME IN FEBRUARY

REF: TOKYO 5613

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Mike Meserve, reasons 1.4(b
),(d).


1. (C) Summary. Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda carried through
on his promise to the international community on January 11,
forcing passage of new anti-terror legislation through the
Diet over the objections of the opposition-controlled Upper
House. Passage of the new law will enable Japan to resume
refueling efforts in the Indian Ocean in support of
anti-terror maritime interdiction operations under Operation
Enduring Freedom as early as February, subject to suitable
progress on an exchange of notes. MSDF supply activities
were suspended in November 2007, when the previous law
expired. The new measure, originally passed in the Lower
House on November 13, was voted down in the Upper House in
the morning, then passed into law by a constitutionally
authorized two-thirds majority re-vote in the Lower House
later that same day (the first time the Lower House has
overridden an Upper House vote in 57 years). The refueling
bill has been the focus of intense debate since August. Now
that is has passed, the focus will turn to whether this
"victory" for Fukuda in the short-term ultimately works to
the advantage of the ruling parties or the opposition. End
summary.

New Law Authorizes Resumption of OEF Refueling Activities
-------------- --------------


2. (SBU) The Fukuda administration passed a new Anti-Terror
Special Measures Law on January 11, 59 days after the law was
first passed in the Lower House and forwarded to the Upper
House. The new law authorizes Japan's Maritime Self-Defense
Forces (MSDF) to resume refueling operations in the Indian
Ocean in support of anti-terror maritime interdiction efforts
(MIO) under Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF). Defense
Minister Shigeru Ishiba is expected to propose an
implementation plan to the Cabinet the third week of January,
with the goal of dispatching MSDF units back to the region by
the end of the month. MSDF units could resume supply
activities in the Indian Ocean as early as mid-February,
according to Embassy contacts, pending suitable progress on
an exchange of notes intended to ensure that Japanese oil is
not diverted for uses outside of the OEF/MIO anti-terror
mandate.


3. (SBU) Under the terms of the new law, which specifically
references UN Security Council Resolution 1776, the MSDF can
operate in non-combat zones, including the Persian Gulf, to
provide fuel and water to military vessels from countries
engaged in OEF/MIO, as long as those supply activities do not
constitute the threat or exercise of force. The law expires
after one year, but can be extended for up to one additional
year. MSDF units may be dispatched without prior Diet
approval, but the Prime Minister must report back to the Diet
whenever MSDF units are dispatched or the implementation plan
is changed.

Unlikely Battleground, Bruising Fight
--------------


4. (C) Passage of the new law represents a victory of sorts
for Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda, who inherited the bill from
his predecessor, Shinzo Abe. After failing to capitalize on
ruling coalition control of the Diet to extend the existing
law in July, Abe resubmitted the bill to the current Diet
session in August. The original law, enacted in 2001,
expired on November 1, 2007, leading to the withdrawal of all
MSDF units from the Indian Ocean on that date. In the
interim, Abe and his ruling Liberal Democratic Party
(LDP)-Komeito coalition colleagues were caught flat-footed

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when main opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) leader
Ichiro Ozawa seized on the OEF refueling mission in August to
take a political stand and try to force early Lower House
elections.


5. (C) Coming off an upset win in the July Upper House
election that was all about livelihood issues, Ozawa was
expected to continue to focus on pensions or regional
economic disparities as a way to differentiate the DPJ from
the ruling parties in the new Diet session. His decision to
instead stake his party's political future on a foreign
policy issue barely mentioned in his party's election
manifesto and of little consequence to most Japanese voters
led Abe in turn to say he would "stake his career" on passage
of a new OEF bill. Abe's failure to gain any ground on the
new legislation played a role, albeit minor, in his sudden
decision to resign in early September, but did not dissuade
Fukuda from taking on the issue when he assumed office later
that month.


6. (C) The new anti-terror bill was passed in the Lower House
on November 13. Since then, the opposition has relied on a
series of defense-related scandals and other administration
missteps to stall deliberations in the Upper House, while
public support for the measure, never much higher than 50
percent, steadily dwindled. Administration attempts to play
up opposition obstructionism were of little use, as the
public continued to focus its concern on pensions,
healthcare, and taxes. Allegations that some MSDF-provided
fuel may have been diverted for other uses only deepened the
debate. The opposition has thus far failed in its attempts
to use the OEF mission as a wedge issue to force Fukuda to
dissolve the Lower House and call a snap election. With the
current Upper House lineup locked into place until July 2010
and no requirement for a Lower House election before
September 2009, Ozawa has no choice but to either capture a
majority in the Lower House or orchestrate some sort of
political realignment to realize his goal of unseating the
LDP-Komeito coalition before then, Embassy contacts say.

Unconventional Passage a Foregone Conclusion
--------------


7. (C) To pass the bill into law, Fukuda was forced to rely
on a seldom used provision of Japan's Constitution that
allows the Lower House to pass a bill over the objections of
the Upper House by a two-thirds majority vote, a procedure
last used in 1951. The bill was voted down in the Upper
House in the morning and passed into law on a Lower House
re-vote in the afternoon. The ruling parties hold 337 of 480
seats in the Lower House. The vote was 340 in favor and 133
against, with seven no votes. Ozawa himself left the Diet
before the vote, reportedly to stump for the DPJ candidate in
the January 27 Osaka gubernatorial campaign, according to a
media contact.


8. (C) Had the DPJ not voted the bill down, it would have
automatically reverted to the Lower House for a re-vote on
January 12, 60 days after it was introduced to the Upper
House. Media contacts say it is too early to tell how the
public will react to use of the override mechanism.
Heavy-handed tactics -- even entirely constitutional ones --
tend to play poorly among Japan's consensus-oriented
electorate, our contacts note, but the public also tends to
forget such "abuses" rather quickly.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) Now that the bill has passed, attention will likely
turn to the impact of the vote on the Fukuda administration
and the ruling and opposition parties. Fukuda's popularity

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ratings have plummeted in recent weeks, attributed in part to
continued problems with Japan's pension records. Supportive
statements from Ambassador Schieffer and the Department
received press play just after passage of the measure and
will have a positive impact, as will those from other
coalition countries. Passage of a law to compensate victims
of tainted blood products the same day is another positive
deliverable for Fukuda in the short term. Much will depend
on whether the parties can now find a way to work more
cooperatively to address domestic concerns.


10. (C) On the opposition side, Ozawa and the DPJ have thus
far failed to capitalize on their opposition to the OEF
measure. Waffling over whether to vote the government's bill
down or to submit a counterproposal for nearly three months
did little to project an image that this was a principled
stand. Several failed attempts to coordinate with the
Socialist and Communist Parties -- without which the DPJ does
not have a majority in the Upper House -- have also done
little to boost the opposition's standing. For now, at least,
the DPJ has dropped the idea of passing a censure motion in
the Upper House to protest the override. By ultimately
choosing to vote the measure down, rather than hold it for 60
days -- a decision that was forced on Ozawa by the other
opposition parties -- the DPJ has effectively lost the
ability to criticize Fukuda for ignoring Upper House calls
for further deliberation.
DONOVAN