DEMOCRATIC PARTY LOOKING (CAUTIOUSLY) TOWARDS LIFE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TIRANA 000827 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/11/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV AL SUBJECT: DEMOCRATIC PARTY LOOKING (CAUTIOUSLY) TOWARDS LIFE AFTER BERISHA REF: TIRANA 812 Classified By: Ambassador John L. Withers, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Seven months before the 2009 parliamentary elections, Prime Minister Sali Berisha maintains a tight grip on his Democratic Party (DP). With nearly complete control over who gets on the party lists for the upcoming elections and no credible rivals within the party, Berisha is likely to remain at the top of the party for the foreseeable future. Nevertheless, many within the DP, including young, ambitious party activists as well as potential Berisha rivals for the party chairmanship, are beginning to chafe at Berisha's nearly 20-year tenure as the head of the DP. Although an open challenge to Berisha's leadership is unlikely prior to the elections, growing numbers of DP activists are cautiously positioning themselves for a post-Berisha DP, with some even hoping for DP defeat in the parliamentary elections as the only way to unseat Berisha and make way for a new generation of DP leaders. END SUMMARY. A Faction of ONE -------------- ¶2. (C) Sali Berisha, despite being seen by many within his own party as a political liability as the DP heads toward parliamentary elections, remains firmly in control of his party. Although numerous minor "factions" exist within the DP, none present a credible threat to Berisha's continued leadership. His main rivals for the party leadership, President Bamir Topi and Speaker of Parliament Josephina Topalli, have relatively little organized, broad support within the party, with ONE observer telling PolOff "there is no Topi faction" within the DP, while Topalli's supporters in Parliament are relatively few and all come from her home area of Shkoder. Former Foreign Minister and DP MP Besnik Mustafaj has recently taken minor steps to quietly distance himself from Berisha and boost his image, but most observers see this as Mustafaj positioning himself to run in the upcoming DP internal elections for the head of the Tirana Party Organization and not part of any larger challenge to Berisha. Barring some unforeseen disaster resulting in a successful no-confidence motion against Berisha or his resignation, political observers are unanimous in the belief Berisha will continue to head the DP as it goes into next year's elections - for better or worse. Looking to Life Beyond Berisha ; -------------- ¶3. (C) But Berisha's continued iron grip on the party machinery hasn't stopped others in the party from dreaming of a day without Berisha - even if this means the party must lose badly in the parliamentary elections to make it so. Gjergj Bojaxhi (Amcit, protect),General Director of the State Electrical Distribution Company (KESH),told PolOff that although he is a DP supporter, "intellectually" Bojaxhi is hoping for a DP defeat next summer as this is the only way to unseat Berisha at the top of the party and make way for a new generation of party leaders. Bojaxhi went on to describe the DP's election prospects as "grim," particularly in the Tirana-Durres corridor, but said that the party has no choice but to stick with Berisha as it heads towards the elections. Bojaxhi predicted that a DP victory in the elections could in the end be bad for the future of the DP, as it would only extend Berisha's tenure at the top of the party and postpone much-needed internal party reforms and turnover. Dangers Ahead for the DP, Berisha -------------- ¶4. (C) Numerous potential dangers lurk in the next few months for Berisha and the Democratic Party as the elections approach. The government's widely-touted anti-corruption efforts are generally considered a failure by voters, with some 92 percent of Albanians now believing that corruption is pervasive. The ongoing Gerdec investigation could yet implicate members of Berisha's family - an outcome that would likely be politically devastating to the PD's election chances - while other members of the Berisha government could still be hit with corruption charges in connection with the Durres-Kukes road project. Finally, any economic downturn would further badly damage Berisha's already tarnished image. Don't Underestimate Berisha -------------- TIRANA 00000827 002 OF 002 ¶5. (C) COMMENT: Berisha, despite numerous recent missteps, concerns over his health, and whispers that he is becoming a drag on his party, remains Albania's most canny, saavy politician. A good example of his political instincts is his recent insistence that the only thing preventing the hunger-striking LSI party from joining the Central Election Commission (reftel) is opposition on the part of the Socialist Party (SP). Berisha and SP Chair Edi Rama have certainly cut some kind of deal to exclude LSI and other, smaller parties from the CEC. But by putting the blame for the impasse on the SP, Berisha drives yet another wedge into an already disorganized and divided left. In shoring up his own DP flanks, Berisha has total control over which candidates will make it onto the DP party lists for the upcoming elections, meaning any potential rivals must defer to Berisha or risk being left off the list. Finally, Berisha will likely postpone internal DP elections until April or May, thereby injecting further uncertainty into the DP ranks and preventing the emergence of any potential rival until just before the June parliamentary elections. Berisha has outmaneuvered his political rivals many times in the past, and he will almost certainly remain in firm control of the DP as it heads into next year's elections. Of bigger concern perhaps for the DP will be whether ambitious DP figures give less than 100 percent towards a DP victory next summer in hopes of bringing on a defeat for the party that will clear the way for the next generation of DP leaders. WITHERS