PM KARAMANLIS: STAY THE COURSE ON REFORMS, NO EARLY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 THESSALONIKI 000063 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/SE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV ECON EAIR PREL MK RU GG GR SUBJECT: PM KARAMANLIS: STAY THE COURSE ON REFORMS, NO EARLY ELECTIONS, DELINK GEORGIA CRISIS AND RUSSIA ENERGY THESSALONI 00000063 001.2 OF 003 ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: In his annual speech on economic policy at the Thessaloniki Trade Fair, PM Karamanlis promised to continue implementing the GoG's reform agenda, despite the global economic crisis and lack of public enthusiasm. Greece needs to reform its ineffective public sector, further reduce the budget deficit, and implement the GoG's new tax measures, he noted. In the traditional press conference that followed, the PM defended several ministers accused of unethical behavior and ruled out early elections or a cabinet re-shuffle. On the Russia/Georgia crisis, Karamanlis asserted the same distinction he had after the EU Summit between moving forward with energy pipeline deals with Russia and Greece's support for Georgia's territorial integrity and other Alliance and EU positions. He also said he saw no willingness from Macedonia to resolve the name issue and that he saw no reason to change Greece's position not to recognize Kosovo. END SUMMARY ENERGY AT TOP OF AGENDA ¶2. (U) On September 6, at the 73rd annual Thessaloniki International Trade Fair, Greek Prime Minister Kostas Karamanlis gave his annual address on the government's economic policy, emphasizing that Greece faces serious challenges but is "moving in the right direction" and must continue systemic reforms. Greece's international energy agreements (TGI, Burgas-Alexandroupoli, South Stream) will help increase revenues and jobs. Reforms have helped Greece avoid the EU's excessive deficit procedure, attract investment, achieve one of the highest economic growth rates in the Eurozone, as well as three percent wage growth. "We all realize how dramatic things would have been today if we did not dare to take specific (not pleasant, but necessary) measures." NO CHANGE IN ECONOMIC POLICY, REFORM PROGRAM ¶3. (U) Karamanlis stressed that the GoG would stay the course on reforms he had promised during the last elections, despite "turbulent" global economic conditions (including the U.S. credit crisis) and some domestic resistance. "I am determined to continue by intensifying reforms." Karamanlis claimed that several economic indicators (e.g. GDP growth and declining unemployment) show Greece is doing well compared to other Eurozone countries and that the reforms are working. The main axes of economic policy will remain unchanged: sustainable fiscal consolidation, viable growth, social protection for those in need. "Our first priority is continuing a fiscal consolidation program to eliminate deficits." Another priority is to find solutions for ailing state-owned Olympic Airlines and the Hellenic Railways Organization, which cost taxpayers about 2.7 million euro per day. On Olympic, the GoG goal is a new, competitive airline, under the same name and logo, but without the current debts and problems, no private monopoly, no loss of jobs, and air connections with all the islands. The government is also working hard to achieve a more fair tax system and to combat tax evasion. ECONOMIC GROWTH, WITH SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY ¶4. (U) The GoG's economic policy focuses on ensuring high growth rates, including by attracting large investments, minimizing bureaucratic hurdles to doing business, de-regulating "closed professions" and promoting business through high-tech infrastructure, the PM stated. At the same time, he pledged to ensure environmental protection, including through a National Land Register and promoting alternative energy sources. The government also seeks to build a "viable social state", boosting employment while fighting inflation and maintaining a viable social security system. The government will soon activate a National Social Cohesion Fund aimed at supporting the most needy. The GoG will also adopt measures to protect consumers. Greece is addressing its most serious problem: an ineffective public sector and its chronic weaknesses: "overspending, bureaucracy and corruption." The government has launched a plan to strengthen internal control mechanisms. To improve government transparency, heretofore undisclosed "special accounts" controlled by ministries would be included in the national budget. REGIONAL LEADERSHIP, BASED ON EU-CENTRIC FOREIGN POLICY ¶5. (U) Karamanlis said Greece aims to exploit its geopolitical advantages, as a pole of stability and growth in southeastern Europe, a modern energy, transit, commercial and banking hub in the wider region. The public works ministry is implementing an investment program, worth 18.5 billion euros, of which 40 percent is earmarked for northern Greece. Strategic agreements with global port operators for the ports of Thessaloniki and Piraeus, will change the ports' character and bring large investments, cutting transport costs and boosting public THESSALONI 00000063 002.2 OF 003 revenues. Major infrastructure projects in the Thessaloniki, including construction of a metro and renovation of the airport, are on track. The GoG recently opened an International University in Thessaloniki. Karamanlis said he supports a proposal to re-invigorate the Thessaloniki International Fair by moving it to new facilities outside the city. On foreign policy, the EU remains central. Greece favors a common immigration policy and a European coast guard. "We support the European prospect of our neighboring countries, by making it clear that full respect of the principles, values and prerequisites of the EU, also means their full accession. We have made it clear to neighboring Skopje that, in any case, primary importance was to establish good neighborly relations. Our credibility has been tested and our position is known: a name with geographical determinant to be valid for all." On Cyprus, Greece welcomes a restart of negotiations and urges Ankara to encourage the Turkish-Cypriot leadership to seek a functional, democratic and European solution for a united Cyprus without any occupation troops." PRESS CONFERENCE: NO EARLY ELECTIONS, NO CABINET SHUFFLE ¶6. (U) Responding to questions at the traditional press conference at the Trade Fair on September 7, Karamanlis ruled out early general elections or a government re-shuffle. The government won a strong mandate in September 2007 elections and has "much work ahead." He defended ministers accused of unethical behavior, claiming "there are no cases of inappropriate behavior" and "accusations cannot have any validity until they are investigated by justice." He rejected recent charges by main opposition PASOK of vote tampering by ND deputies during the May constitutional reform in parliament, GEORGIA, MACEDONIA, AND KOSOVO, ¶7. (U) Also in his press conference, in nearly the same terms used in his formal statement after the EU Summit, Karamanlis commented on key foreign policy issues and the economy: -- GEORGIA: Karamanlis said Greece's position will remain in line with that of the European Union; he made no reference to NATO decisions related to Georgia. Asked about statements attributed to EUR DAS Matt Bryza on Greece's decision to proceed with South Stream despite Russia's actions in Gergia, Karamanlis said: "There are two different things. One is the government's responsible policy of dealing with the country's energy policy, for the present and the future." Second, "there should be no confusion with the crisis that occurred, to the regret and worry of all, in the Caucasus area recently". Karamanlis added that a fundamental principle of Greek foreign policy is that it does not recognize the solution of international disputes with violence, and places respect of territorial integrity as a matter of principle. (NOTE: This was the second occasion that Karamanlis spoke publicly on the Russia/Georgia crisis, the first time being a week ago just after the EU leaders' summit. On both occasions he expressed Greece's support for the EU political objectives of maintaining Georgia's territorial integrity and providing humanitarian assistance. At the same time, Karamanlis has also emphasized Greece's intention to move forward with its energy deals with Russia and the importance of not "isolating" Moscow. On September 2, the Greek Parliament ratified the South Stream gas pipeline agreement with Russia. END NOTE.) -- MACEDONIA: Karamanlis said he saw no willingness on the part of Skopje for finding a name solution. "I see no move in positions, nor even the desire for a mutually acceptable name to be found." He reiterated Athens' "absolutely clear" position of an international name that would contain a geographic determinant and be valid for everyone. Greece supports FYROM's European prospects, provided that the name issue is resolved. -- KOSOVO: On prospects for Greek recognition of Kosovo, Karamanlis said "we are weighing all the facts", adding that "at the present time, there is no reason to change our policy on this matter". -- TURKEY/CYPRUS: In his speech, Karamanlis said Greece was working towards a full normalisation of Greek-Turkish relations. He also welcomed the "restart" of negotiations on Cyprus and asked that Ankara "encourage the Turk-Cypriot leadership to seek a functional, democratic and European solution for a united Cyprus without any occupation troops." -- MIDDLE EAST: Karamanlis noted that Greece would be pursuing more initiatives to strengthen cooperation with Arab countries. -- ECONOMY: The government's economic policy will focus on safeguarding Greece's gains and successes, such as the drastic THESSALONI 00000063 003.2 OF 003 reduction of the fiscal deficit from 7.5 percent to 2.5 percent and unemployment from 11 percent to approximately 7 percent. The goal, he noted, was a further reduction of the deficit, gradually, "year by year", while maintaining its commitments for introducing a Minimum National Salary and to introduce legislation for the relief of citizens hurt by the international credit crisis. On pensions, despite difficult fiscal conditions, the government had fulfilled all its commitments, such as increasing the farmers' pensions and the unemployment benefit. He acknowledged that "nobody is pleased about [the government's] new tax measures, but the measures are necessary. OPPOSITION REACTION: PM HAS LOST TOUCH WITH REALITY ¶8. (U) Commenting on the PM's speech, main opposition PASOK Spokesman George Papaconstantinou said it "empty of content", and proved that Karamanlis has completely lost touch with the reality. He criticized Karamanlis for protecting corrupt ministers. Communist Party of Greece (KKE) political bureau member Makis Mailis said "the working class" would continue to oppose the PM's pro-business, pro-EU path. Coalition of the Left, Movements and Ecology (SYN) leader Alexis Tsipras said the speech revealed the PM's personal responsibility for the government's "heartless" policies. Several labor unions demonstrating against the PM before and during his speech echoed opposition criticism, with some demonstrators carrying placards depicting Karamanlis as Marie Antoinette. MEDIA REACTION AND ATMOSPHERICS ¶9. (SBU) Several journalists and other observers commented that the PM seemed uncomfortable and rushed while delivering his speech, despite the frequent applause and friendly audience. While at times the PM spoke forcefully and convincingly, his speech struck many as lackluster and downbeat. During his September 7 press conference, the PM appeared defensive and uncharacteristically nervous, often apparently reading answers from prepared notes. The absence of the traditional banquet accompanying the speech this year contributed to an undercurrent of malaise and economic decline. COMMENT ¶10. (SBU) For some, Karamanlis' "stay the course" message conveyed resoluteness in the face of adversity. For many, however, the message translated as stubborn adherence to the status quo, including accepting a high cost of living and government corruption. Though the speech managed to touch on the full range of economic challenges pre-occupying ordinary Greeks, it lacked a coherent vision and provided few detailed remedies or new ideas. In addition, Karamanlis portrayed an almost truculent stance in support of his government's recent tax increases, which many believe are the government's panicked attempt to shore up a budget that was on the verge of busting the GoG's 2008 deficit target. Public criticism has focused on the government's willingness to pass the "cost" onto the public through increased taxes, but unwillingness to make the hard policy decisions necessary to reduce expenditures. Many of the initiatives he mentioned, e.g. the Thessaloniki metro, are long-standing promises he and his predecessors have been dangling for years. To gain support for his reform agenda, Karamanlis will at a minimum need to match more words with deeds, including on government transparency, and demonstrate that the reforms produce not only impressive statistics but tangible benefits for ordinary citizens. It is clear, however, that maintaining "reform" remains one of those rare issues that the PM has chosen to seek to advance. Reform, however, in the PM's lexicon translates into small steps on the margins as opposed to broader efforts that could succeed in achieving solid results. ¶11. (SBU) Embassy Athens Comment: Karamanlis' foreign policy remarks, both in the speech and in the subsequent press conference, revealed little new in terms of Greek policy. Greece will continue to participate in negotiations to find a solution to the Macedonia name issue, but is awaiting more positive signals from the Macedonians that it can accept a solution comprised of a composite name with a geographic modifier that has a very broad scope of use. On relations with Russia, the PM annunciated what we are increasingly sensing as GOG policy -- and which we believe to be driven by Karamanlis himself: that Greece would support the political positions of the EU to uphold Georgia's territorial integrity, while continuing business as usual with Russia on energy and other economic issues. We will continue to express our concerns with this approach with GOG interlocutors at all levels. We also note that this policy of Greece's having its cake and eating it too could become increasingly problematic as Greece assumes the role of OSCE Chair-in-Office in January, 2009. YEE