NETHERLANDS/GEORGIA: GAERC UNLIKELY TO ACT

C O N F I D E N T I A L THE HAGUE 000851

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/06/2018
TAGS: PREL EU GG NL
SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/GEORGIA: GAERC UNLIKELY TO ACT
DECISIVELY NEXT WEEK

REF: A. GIAUQUE EMAIL 10-3-08

B. THE HAGUE 829

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Michael F. Galagher for reasons
1.5(b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The Dutch expect no decisive action on
Georgia/Russia at the upcoming GAERC October 13-14. END
SUMMARY.


2. (C) On October 3, POLOFF delivered Department's GAERC
non-paper to Hugo Klijn, MFA Chief of the Eastern Europe and
Central Asia Division. Klijn responded October 7 that the EU
is unlikely to take any decisive step at the upcoming GAERC.
Instead, the EU will probably still be discussing and
evaluating Russia's compliance with its ceasefire
commitments. For that reason, it is unlikely that the EU
will decide whether to continue its September 1 suspension of
EU-Russia talks, or how to proceed on the planned November 14
EU-Russia summit. The West still faces "definitional
issues," (due to the vagueness of the ceasefire agreements)
in evaluating Russian compliance. Klijn expected those
issues would be the subject of the technical-level
discussions in Geneval on October 22. Klijn said the Dutch
are "pleased that there is a process" to address the crisis,
but a political decision would likely come later. Klijn
added that Russian FM Lavrov had agreed to come to the Hague
to see FM Verhagen on October 30.


3. (C) Deputy EU Correspondent Rochus Pronk said October 8
that the EU conclusions on Georgia/Russia had been finalized,
and there would be no decision on whether to resume
negotiations on a strategic agreement with Russia.
Discussions in Brussels next week will just be "an exchange
of views." The EU mission has deployed, there are no reports
of Russian obstruction, and the Russian withdrawals "appear
to be going in the right direction."
CULBERTSON