NETHERLANDS/GEORGIA: GAERC UNLIKELY TO ACT

C O N F I D E N T I A L THE HAGUE 000851 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/06/2018 TAGS: PREL EU GG NL SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/GEORGIA: GAERC UNLIKELY TO ACT DECISIVELY NEXT WEEK REF: A. GIAUQUE EMAIL 10-3-08 ¶B. THE HAGUE 829 Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Michael F. Galagher for reasons 1.5(b,d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The Dutch expect no decisive action on Georgia/Russia at the upcoming GAERC October 13-14. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) On October 3, Poloff delivered Department's GAERC non-paper to Hugo Klijn, MFA Chief of the Eastern Europe and Central Asia Division. Klijn responded October 7 that the EU is unlikely to take any decisive step at the upcoming GAERC. Instead, the EU will probably still be discussing and evaluating Russia's compliance with its ceasefire commitments. For that reason, it is unlikely that the EU will decide whether to continue its September 1 suspension of EU-Russia talks, or how to proceed on the planned November 14 EU-Russia summit. The West still faces "definitional issues," (due to the vagueness of the ceasefire agreements) in evaluating Russian compliance. Klijn expected those issues would be the subject of the technical-level discussions in Geneval on October 22. Klijn said the Dutch are "pleased that there is a process" to address the crisis, but a political decision would likely come later. Klijn added that Russian FM Lavrov had agreed to come to the Hague to see FM Verhagen on October 30. ¶3. (C) Deputy EU Correspondent Rochus Pronk said October 8 that the EU conclusions on Georgia/Russia had been finalized, and there would be no decision on whether to resume negotiations on a strategic agreement with Russia. Discussions in Brussels next week will just be "an exchange of views." The EU mission has deployed, there are no reports of Russian obstruction, and the Russian withdrawals "appear to be going in the right direction." CULBERTSON