NETHERLANDS/HCOC: CONCERNS OVER PRE-LAUNCH

C O N F I D E N T I A L THE HAGUE 000068 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR ISN/MTR, EUR/WE E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/23/2018 TAGS: PREL MTCRE MNUC KSCA ETTC TSPA NL SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/HCOC: CONCERNS OVER PRE-LAUNCH NOTIFICATION COMPLIANCE REF: STATE 4161 Classified By: CDA Andrew Schofer, reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The GONL has nearly completed its Annual Declaration (AD) under the Hague Conduct of Conduct Against Ballistic Missile Proliferation (HCOC),and plans to submit the declaration prior to the March 31, 2008 deadline. The Dutch remain concerned, however, over USG noncompliance with the HCOC's commitment to submit pre-launch notifications (PLNs) on ballistic missile and space vehicle launches and test flights. According to MFA Senior Advisor for Nuclear Affairs and Nonproliferation Ceta Noland, the EU Presidency will demarche Washington and Moscow on HCOC PLNs "in the near future." Given the linkage between PLNs and our bilateral relationship with Russia, the GONL would appreciate any update from Washington on where on-going discussions on a proposed joint data exchange center currently stand. Noland discussed these issues with polmiloff on January 23. End summary. ¶2. (C) Noland said that she had "already finished" the Dutch AD for the HCOC, and had circulated it for review in the Dutch interagency. She expected the declaration to be approved following some fact-checking regarding the number of space vehicle launches by a Dutch civilian company based in Amsterdam -- at any rate, the AD will be submitted prior to the March 31, 2008 deadline, she said. She noted that the Dutch also have been reaching out to HCOC subscribing states through "inreach" demarches, reminding them of the deadline and the simplified "nil form." ¶3. (C) On a related matter, Noland raised the HCOC's commitment regarding the submission of PLNs for ballistic and space vehicle launches and USG noncompliance. She noted that until recently, the Russians had "half-heartedly" complied by submitting some PLNs for commercial space launches, but had ceased all PLNs as of January 2008 in response to USG noncompliance. Noland said the EU Presidency will demarche both Washington and Moscow on this issue "in the near future." ¶4. (C) Noland appreciated reftel points on the AD submission; they verified the Dutch belief that the USG takes the HCOC seriously. However, the United States and Russia are the HCOC's most important members, and continued Moscow and Washington noncompliance with PLN submissions could jeopardize the HCOC. She further argued that the USG often provides PLNs to the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) for safety purposes -- if such pre-launch information is public, then why not comply with the HCOC as well? ¶5. (C) Noland acknowledged that PLNs have become more of a bilateral issue between the USG and Moscow, especially given on-going discussions regarding a joint data exchange center. According to Noland, the Russian embassy in The Hague is reporting that Moscow and Washington are "so far apart" following the latest U.S. proposal regarding the data exchange center, that the Russians are skeptical that any resolution is possible. At the same time, Noland had heard from British counterparts a more positive read-out regarding the status of the data exchange discussions -- the GONL would appreciate Washington's view on where such discussions currently stand, she said. Schofer