NETHERLANDS/TURKEY: CALM EU REACTION TO AKP CASE

C O N F I D E N T I A L THE HAGUE 000643 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/25/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV NL EU TU SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/TURKEY: CALM EU REACTION TO AKP CASE REF: STATE 79278 Classified By: Political Economic Counselor Andrew C. Mann for reasons 1.5(b,d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The Dutch expect a "calm" EU reaction to the controversial court case in Turkey against the ruling AKP party. The Dutch are "gloomy," however, on prospects for Turkey's accession to the EU. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) CALM EU REACTION: On July 25, Poloffs discussed reftel points to Ms. Dominque Kuhling, head of the Enlargement Section of the European Integration Department. (Note: Charge d,Affaires will also deliver this message at a higher level. End note.) Kuhling expected a ruling in the case in early August, followed by a "calm" EU reaction in the form of a shared opinion rather than a statement by the French presidency. On the positive side, French President Sarkozy has toned down his messages on Turkey following his meeting with Turkish PM Erdogan. However, with 2009 likely to be the last year for Turkey to respond to the Ankara protocol on Cyprus and then negotiate the eight frozen chapters of the EU acquis, the Dutch are pessimistic about prospects for completion of the negotiations. ¶3. (C) GLOOMY DUTCH ASSESSMENT: Ms. Kuhling noted that in light of its 2007 constitutional crisis, Turkey made few reforms, but the Dutch had hoped that 2008 would be a "year of reform." Progress has been limited, however, and the Dutch do not expect much in the next months due to the AKP case. Turkey's amendment to article 301 was a step in the right direction but did not go as far in protecting free speech as the Netherlands would have liked. Protections for religious minorities and the "head scarf" issue are not promising. In the Dutch parliament, the opposition Liberal Party (VVD) may react strongly and publicly to the AKP ruling, in opposition to Turkish EU membership. (Note: Ms. Kuhling explained the Dutch MFA continues to follow their 2006 strategy on enlargement, following "strict criteria" for new members to follow, though with open-ended negotiations that aim for accession. The Dutch are particularly cautious on Turkey and the Balkans. End note.) Gallagher