NETHERLANDS/IRAN: ELECTIONS ASSESSMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L THE HAGUE 000250

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/12/2018
TAGS: PREL KDEM PHUM PINR NL IR
SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/IRAN: ELECTIONS ASSESSMENT
(C-NE8-00039)

REF: A. STATE 15287

B. THE HAGUE 243

Classified By: Political Counselor Andrew Schofer for reasons 1.5(b) an
d (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: On March 12, 2008, POLOFF raised reftel A
questions with Loek ten Hagen, MFA Senior Policy Officer in
the North Africa and Middle East Department of the Dutch MFA.
Ten Hagen commented on factional infighting and the
mechanics of the upcoming Iranian election. Responses below
follow reftel format. END SUMMARY.


FACTIONAL INFIGHTING
--------------


2. (C)

(i) The big players are running for office. Ten Hagen was
surprised that the reformists were not boycotting the
election. "They could have protested more." The
conservatives are now sure to win a majority.

(ii) IRGC's larger role is also surprising and suggests a
smaller division between the military and civil society.
This suggests the military may exercise even more influence
next time. Ten Hagen had heard -- from Iranian expatriates
in the Netherlands -- that many voters will opt for any
reform candidate.

(iii) Among the conservatives, Ahmadinejad's message is more
"political," while Larijani's message is more "technical,"

(iv) The reformers have not shown the ability to unite. The
hardliners are sure to win the election. The Supreme Leader
supports the conservatives, but he is not 100 per cent behind
Ahmadinejad. He could end up supporting Larijani

(v) With a lack of political parties, the elections are
personality driven. Well-known political and religious
figures gather the most support.

(vi) The economy is the top issue. Gas is something that
worries the average citizen. "People are complaining." At
the same time, development projects are also important, as
demonstrated by politicians' visits to the projects.
Ahmadinejad has strengthened his control of the MOI and thus
has more electoral power.


MECHANICS
--------------


3. (C)

(i) Ten Hagen thought it would be interesting to see how many
contests go to a second round of voting, given the
requirement that candidates win 40% of the votes to avoid a
run-off. Ten Hagen also expressed concern that early
statements by the west on the Iranian elections could affect
the second round of voting (reftel B).

(ii) Ten Hagen thought voters in Tehran might be better
informed than voters outside the capital.

(iii) Candidates do not have equal access to the media.
Some reformist candidates have tried a low key approach with
the media to avoid be excluded from the candidate list by the
GOI.

(iv) Ten Hagen assumes that the vote counting is done by
hand. He notes that "there is a fuss" about parliament's
decision to permit ballot boxes to be moved to a central
location after voting, when in the past that practice was
prohibited. Ten Hagen believes that this new law facilitates
corruption.
Gallagher