ISRAEL BRACING FOR HIZBALLAH "RETALIATION" FOR

S E C R E T TEL AVIV 000671 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/21/2018 TAGS: PTER MOPS LE IS SUBJECT: ISRAEL BRACING FOR HIZBALLAH "RETALIATION" FOR MUGHNIYA, READY TO HIT BACK HARD Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones, Reason 1.4 (b) (d) ¶1. (S) Israel's security services are on high alert this weekend as March 22 will mark the end of the 40-day mourning period for Hizballah's operations chief Imad Mughniya. Israeli military and security officials are taking Hizballah leader Nasrallah's threat of an "open war" seriously, and have taken steps ranging from warning Israelis traveling abroad, increasing the protection provided to senior officials, and holding a combined large ground-air combined exercise in northern Israel intended to send a message to Hizballah. The Israeli leadership is making it very clear that a Hizballah attack will be met with a punishing response. What is less clear is where are the limits of Israeli restraint, since much depends on what kind of attack Hizballah launches, how effective it is, and perhaps how easy it is to link the attack to Hizballah, especially if it occurs in a third country. ¶2. (S) In this context, the Israeli Air Force appears to be stepping up the pace and range of its overflights of Lebanon. As the IDF and GOI have repeatedly told us, they consider the intelligence developed through overflights to be essential to their monitoring of Hizballah's military activities, particularly in light of the failure to enforce arms embargo provisions of UNSCR 1701. In the current "waiting game" for Hizballah's promised retaliation, there may be an additional point to the overflights -- Israel wants Hizballah and the GOL to understand clearly that any Hizballah attack on Israel from Lebanese territory will elicit a sharp response. We therefore anticipate not only a possible increased tempo of overflights, but also more incidents of sonic booms in an effort to deter Hizballah. ********************************************* ******************** Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. ********************************************* ******************** JONES