A PROLIFERATION OF MESSAGES AS ISRAEL AND HAMAS APPROACH

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002809 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PINS PTER KWBG KPAL MOPS IS EG SUBJECT: A PROLIFERATION OF MESSAGES AS ISRAEL AND HAMAS APPROACH THE SIX-MONTH "TAHDIYAH" ANNIVERSARY -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. In the absence of any published policy directive on Gaza from the December 10 trilateral meeting of Olmert, Barak and Livni, the Israeli media is focused on perceived policy differences within the GOI. The media reports that Minister of Defense Barak favors renewal of the truce between Israel and Hamas while Foreign Minister Livni and others are portrayed as advocates of military action. In fact, Barak has stated publicly that Israel will determine how and when it responds to Hamas, and his advisor and envoy, (ret.) MG Amos Gilad, who visited Cairo on December 14, reportedly threatened that Israel would "change the rules" if a cease-fire is not restored. Meanwhile, Israeli dailies reported on conflicting Hamas perspectives on future of the truce after its first six-month anniversary on December 19. -------------- - BARAK AND GILAD: WAITING TIL THE TIME IS RIGHT -------------- - ¶2. Israel's position on the "tahdiyah" (loosely translated as "truce") was clarified by the action of Defense Minister Barak, who dispatched his top aide Amos Gilad to Cairo December 14 to discuss the possible extension of the truce with Hamas. According to a report in the mass circulation Yediot Aharonot on December 14, Gilad carried a message for Hamas to the effect that if the rocket fire continues, Israel will "change the rules." In an earlier December 8 radio interview, Gilad elaborated: "we are dealing with an enemy ... that will get what is coming to it. ...The right timing is of great importance, because striking without preparing for the results that follow, is not enough. ... At the moment, we are taking such steps as the closing of crossings to convince them that it is of no benefit to commit murderous attacks on Israeli civilians. ...The IDF is prepared and is preparing for the right time to strike." ¶3. Barak's diplomacy in sending Gilad to Cairo was criticized in the December 14 cabinet meeting by Vice Premier Haim Ramon, who said the issue should have been brought up for discussion in the cabinet. Barak reportedly responded that Gilad was in Cairo for routine discussions and no extension of the truce would be agreed on without the government's approval. -------------- ... VERSUS LIVNI'S RHETORIC -------------- ¶4. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni made several statements during the past week on Gaza policy. On each occasion the tone of her statements appeared progressively more hawkish. On a visit to Ashkelon, Livni said she was embarrassed by the use of the term "calm" to describe the situation in which rockets were being fired at Israeli towns. In the December 14 cabinet meeting, Livni said "every rocket from Gaza will obligate us to respond to protect our citizens ... There is no calm that means rocket fire in our direction." Livni then developed her remarks in a more blanket policy statement regarding Hamas and Gaza: "The state can and needs to provide an answer to terrorism against it through the military means at its disposal. We cannot continue to leave Gaza under Hamas control." -------------- BUT OLMERT DUCKS THE DEBATE -------------- ¶5. PM Olmert, who chaired the cabinet meeting at which Livni spoke, refused to spar publicly on the subject of Hamas or authorize a substantive cabinet debate - leaving Livni and Barak to attack one another's policy positions in the press. When it came to a statement from the Prime Minister's office, Olmert's media spokesperson would only say that "Israel has been ready and continues to be ready to abide by our understandings with the Egyptians but that it is clear that this cannot be unilateral..." -------------- DECIPHERING THE MULTIPLE HAMAS MESSAGES -------------- ¶6. Israeli military affairs correspondents, such as Ha'aretz reporters Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff, assessed that the confusing and sometimes contradictory Hamas signals are a consequence of Israel's assassination of Hamas founder Sheikh Yassin in 2004. For example, they noted that at the December 14 Gaza rally marking the 21st anniversary of the founding of Hamas, Ayman Taha, a Hamas leader based in Gaza, challenged the Meshal assessment from Damascus that the truce should not be renewed, saying Mehshal's statement did not obligate Hamas in Gaza. Israeli journalists commented that the Hamas celebratory rally was "particularly repulsive" and took the form of a man dressed in IDF uniform performing the role of Gilad Shalit missing his mother and father - in Hebrew. In so doing, Hamas officials deliberately touched an TEL AVIV 00002809 002 OF 002 exposed nerve in Israel when they mocked Shalit, which is one of the most sensitive political questions of the day in Israel. -------------- 227 SECURITY DETAINEES RELEASED; NO SHALIT -------------- ¶7. Israel's release of 227 Palestinian detainees got underway on 15 December after the Eid al Adha holiday had concluded but still in time to coincide with efforts to extend the truce. Efforts to free Gilad Shalit may also be linked to the release, according to the Israeli press. Defense Minister Barak has repeatedly stated that officials in the Ministry of Defense are "working day and night" to this end. He made the remarks in response to a controversial statement by Livni to the effect that "not every soldier could be returned to Israel." Barak countered that while "not any price" could always be paid, "every effort" must be made to bring IDF soldiers back. Barak's remarks indicate his awareness that when it comes to Gaza policy, the Israeli public would view progress in regard to Shalit's captive status as more significant than nearly any other achievement. But some pundits, such as Ben Caspit of Ma'ariv, pounced on Barak's handling of Gaza and the ongoing captivity of Shalit: "Last June, when he (Barak) persuaded (the GOI) to agree to the truce, he said that it was the only way to bring Gilad Shalit back home. So there was a truce, and it blew up, and what does he say now? The exact same thing." CUNNINGHAM