LABOR PRIMARIES BENEFIT BARAK WHILE LIKUD PARTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 002793 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR IS SUBJECT: LABOR PRIMARIES BENEFIT BARAK WHILE LIKUD PARTY PICKS RIGHT-WINGERS REF: TEL AVIV 2718 Classified By: A/DCM Marc J. Sievers. Reason 1.4 (B/D) ¶1. (C) Summary: The Labor and Likud primaries are over, and the results provide some insight into what the two historic, mainstream Israeli parties may look like, as those on the rank-ordered slate will become members of the Knesset depending on the percentage of the popular vote that the party receives on February 10. The press, pundits and pollsters are focused on interpreting how the primaries helped or hindered the main contenders in the upcoming general election. This, in turn, has influenced the campaign strategies of Tzipi Livni, Binyamin Netanyahu and Ehud Barak. After a false start, in which the electronic voting machinery failed, the Labor Party conducted a paper primary that surprised the party's detractors and resulted in a respectable turn-out and a qualified slate that contained more fresh faces than anticipated. The Likud electronic primary also turned out to be a flop that resulted in lower-than-hoped-for participation and a far-right cast of candidates that could jeopardize Netanyahu's ability to portray the Likud as a party capable of forging a national unity government and continuing negotiations with the Palestinians and cooperation with the U.S. Netanyahu has been vigorous in asserting that he will continue negotiations and set Likud Party policy -- in an effort to burnish centrist credentials that are not reflected in the results (and personalities) that achieved prominence and notoriety in the Likud primaries. Kadima leader Tzipi Livni is fighting for the center-right and portraying Likud as a far-right cast of characters. Livni is still stuck under PM Olmert's shadow and looking for an effective message. Kadima's primary on December 17 is the next opportunity for her to upstage her rivals. End Summary. BARAK'S BOUNCE ¶2. (C) After a brouhaha about Barak's initial decision -- later retracted -- to reserve spots on the Labor Party list for his allies, the Labor electorate (some 60, 000 party members) kept some of Labor's most qualified and respected politicians high on the party slate. The slate contains both Barak supporters (e.g., current MK's Fuad Ben-Eliezer, Matan Viln'ai, Orit Noked, and Shalom Simchon) and critics (notably, MK Ofir Pines Paz),as well as a few newcomers (e.g., JOURNALIST Daniel Ben Simon and President Peres protg, Einat Wilf). Noteworthy is the absence of any rivals from the security or defense establishment, as most of the former Labor generals and admirals have quit the party (e.g., former MK's Ephraim Sneh, Danny Yatom, and Ami Ayalon). An aide to Barak ally Fuad Ben-Eliezer told poloff December 5 that the successful primary, combined with Barak's decisive, and broadly popular action to uproot the settlers in the Hebron "House of Contention" (reftel) on December 4, could translate into a better showing for Labor in the general election. He predicted that Labor would win 15 seats -- less than Labor's current 19, but greater than the single digits (Knesset seats) predicted by November polls. More recent polls by Ha'aretz, Yediot, Ma'ariv and Israeli Radio confirm this analysis, and show Labor pulling out of its rut and winning as many as 12-14 seats. ¶3. (C) Labor's political ad campaign may also have contributed to rebranding its leader with a clever campaign that puts Barak's personality traits out front while proclaiming him to be a leader. Billboards exclaim "I am not trendy" in black letters above Barak's photo, with giant red letters below that simply spell out "leader." (Other billboards substitute "Your pal" or "Nice" or "Likable" for trendy.) Given the intense focus on personalities, this example of humility and assertiveness may pay off for Barak, who reportedly encouraged his campaign team to listen to what the man-on-the-street says about him and to parlay any negative feedback into a positive message. LIKUD AND THE FEIGHLIN EFFECT ¶4. (C) The Likud Party faced technology challenges in its December 8 primary that had a more significant political impact. With just 90 electronic voting stations for nearly 100,000 party members, the party's machinery literally fell apart over glitches -- including a severed telephone cable in Jerusalem -- and overcrowding that led commentators to compare the Likud primary to Soviet-era bread lines in the USSR. The delays resulted in lower-than-hoped-for voter participation, which served to benefit the fringe elements of the Likud Party, chiefly the camp of right-wing extremist, Moshe Feighlin, who initially won slot number 20 on the Likud list. TEL AVIV 00002793 002 OF 003 ¶5. (C) Feighlin, who heads the "Jewish leadership" faction of the Likud Party and resides in the West Bank settlement of Karnei Shomron, has been the focus of intense interest, as pundits portray the Likud as a right-wing party that will call off negotiations with the Palestinians and revert to the party's traditional plank of calling for an Israeli state from the Mediterranean to the Jordan River. Several of his acolytes also won realistic placement on the Likud list, including such "luminaries" as Ehud Yatom, a former MK who was pardoned for his role (when serving in the ISA) in ordering the 1984 killing of two bound Palestinian terrorist suspects with iron rods and stones. More centrist candidates, such as former Labor-leaning police official, Assaf Hefetz, and Bibi's foreign policy advisor and former Ambassador the U.S., Zalman Shoval, failed to make the top ¶40. Of the Likud princes (sons of Likud party founders), Benny Begin outdistanced the centrist Dan Meridor (5th place compared to 17th),but both are certain to be elected in the next Knesset. Netanyahu has indicated that he will determine who becomes a minister, regardless of where the candidate lies on the list. ¶6. (C) The so-called "Feighlin effect" has been downplayed by Netanyahu and his staff as frenzy hyped by unfriendly journalists, but the Likud leader appears to be genuinely concerned with the presence of Feighlin, an extremist who has espoused admiration for Hitler's leadership qualities and advocated the expulsion of Arabs. Netanyahu allies petitioned the party to adjust the Likud list on the grounds that female candidates succeeded in winning high-ranked slots without needing "reserved slots" for women; consequently, the petitioners successfully argued that candidates for slots reserved for regional representatives should be moved up on the Likud list. The effect of this technical challenge was to force Feighlin to the back of the Likud list -- to slot number 36. Despite the negative media commentary, widely shared by the political class, a Dialogue poll published in Ha'aretz on December 10 predicted that Likud will win 36 seats in the next Knesset. Feighlin has removed some of the more sensationalist campaign material from his website, and has said -- for now -- that he will not challenge his demotion. Meanwhile, Bibi has pointedly excluded Feighlin from his post-primary political consultations and gatherings in an effort to minimize his role and to underscore that he, not Feighlin, will set Likud policy. Netanyahu has also stressed his interest to continue negotiations with the Palestinians and Syria. KADIMA PRIMARIES ON DECEMBER 17 ¶7. (C) The rise of Labor in the polls -- back into double-digits -- and the focus on Likud's frightening fringe theoretically opens an opportunity for Kadima Party leader Tzipi Livni to carve out a chunk of the political center in Israeli politics. In recent meetings, she has opined that the battle ahead remains over who will win the support for the "moderate Right." While Livni is still perceived as more appealing than Netanyahu (or Barak) as a leader by the general public, the Kadima Party has sagged in recent polls -- to the mid-to-low twenties -- under the weight of scandals and lackluster performance. The Kadima campaign has begun to attack Netanyahu's leadership with negative ads, and has been rumored to have welcomed, if not indirectly encouraged, the Feighlinists as a means of forcing the Likud on the defense -- and far to the right in the political arena. But Livni has made several serious blunders that could cost her centrist support without reaping the support of the Israeli right. She has publicly questioned Barak's handling of Gaza policy and advocated strong military action in response to the rockets from Gaza. She has also tried to downplay expectations that the kidnapped soldier, Gilad Shalit, will be released in a prisoner exchange ("It is not always possible to bring everyone home."). Finally, on December 11, she pledged to a group of students: "I will tell Palestinian residents of Israel, those whom we call Israeli Arabs, and tell them 'your national solution lies elsewhere'." Taken as a whole, these policy utterances have only served to alienate the center-left and the Arabs and Druze whose support is necessary for primacy in the general elections. ¶8. (C) Comment: Likud has not suffered in the polls in the immediate wake of the problematic primaries, and this may be due to the general rightward shift of the Israeli electorate as well as the disarray of the far-right religious Zionist parties, which have yet to reconstitute themselves into a genuine alternative. Netanyahu has been vigorous in asserting that he will continue negotiations with the Palestinians and the Syrians in an effort to burnish centrist credentials that are not reflected in the results (and personalities) that achieved prominence and notoriety in the Likud primaries. Barak has achieved some bounce from the TEL AVIV 00002793 003 OF 003 unexpectedly successful Labor primaries and decisive action against extremist settlers in Hebron that is more likely to galvanize support on the center-left than a headlong plunge into the Gaza morass. Livni, for her part, is still under Olmert's shadow and looking for an effective message. ********************************************* ******************** Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. ********************************************* ******************** CUNNINGHAM